Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
730
FNUS72 KMHX 150313
FWSMHX
Spot Forecast for Rose Hill Bay...State of North Carolina
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1113 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 EDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.
.DISCUSSION...
Drier air filters in across the entire area tonight into Thursday
along with a much lower risk of showers and thunderstorms. In
fact, the next appreciable opportunity for thunderstorms should
hold off until the weekend. Winds calming overnight will lead to
fog development after 0300edt tonight, which could severely reduce
VIS over and near the fire area when combined with smoke.
Winds forecast to remain calm until mid-morning, ~1000edt. Light
and variable winds for the most part, AoB 5mph, generally NWerly
through midday, briefly becoming SWerly ~1500edt until the
seabreeze crosses the fire site in the evening, ~1800edt. Winds
behind the seabreeze will be Serly and slightly stronger, ~6-8mph.
NOTE: This is a resend of the previous forecast. The forecast has
not changed, but there was a dissemination error that we needed
to fix that was preventing the spot forecast from being sent
correctly.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Patchy fog early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 7 mph shifting to the west
around 3 mph after 3 am, then shifting to the
north early in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Min 1380 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 10.
ADI.................Min 2.
Stability class.....6.
Sfc pressure........29.97 to 30.00 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51 33 24 21 16 13 13 12 12
Weather cov..... PTY
Weather type.... FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............79 76 74 73 72 71 70 68 68
RH..............79 87 93 93 97 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E E SE SE SE SE SE W N
Transp wind spd.7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........4 6 6 6 8 10 10 10 10
ADI.............3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1
Sfc pres (in)...999 000 000 000 999 998 998 997 997
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the west 3 to
5 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 23574 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 10.
ADI.................Max 29.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.90 to 30.00 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13 15 16 13 7 4 5 5 6 5 5 5
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............69 70 73 77 82 86 89 91 93 94 92 91
RH..............100 100 97 82 69 59 52 47 43 40 43 44
20 FT wind dir..N N N NW N N N N N NW W W
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
20 FT wind gust. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1
Transp wind dir.N NW NW NW NW N N N NW W W SW
Transp wind spd.3 3 2 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 5
LVORI...........10 9 8 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
ADI.............2 3 2 5 16 20 18 20 21 22 22 29
Vrate mph-ft/1K.1 1 1 4 12 16 14 16 17 18 18 24
Sfc pres (in)...998 999 000 000 000 999 998 997 995 993 991 990
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 3564 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.88 to 29.91 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............89 88 86 84 81 79 77 75 74 73 72 72
RH..............48 52 57 61 69 74 82 90 93 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW SW S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW S S S S S S SW SW SW W W
Transp wind spd.6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 9 9 9
ADI.............31 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.25 13 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Sfc pres (in)...989 988 989 990 991 991 991 990 989 989 989 989
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
in the morning.
Mixing Height.......Max 9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 77395 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 87.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.84 to 29.92 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72 74 76 80 85 89 92 95 96 97 97 95
RH..............100 100 94 82 67 59 52 48 45 43 45 48
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust. 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.5 6.7 6.4 9.6 8.3 7.0
Transp wind dir.W SW W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 7 7 8 8 6 7 7 6 8 8 8
LVORI...........9 8 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............4 7 7 18 27 29 47 56 45 87 81 68
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 5 14 21 22 38 46 37 77 70 56
Sfc pres (in)...989 990 991 991 992 992 990 989 987 986 985 984
$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Safety Officer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617382.0/MHX
.DELDT 07/14/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.crate@ncparks.gov