Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
584
FNUS72 KMHX 111009
FWSMHX
Spot Forecast for Rose Bay Canal Fire...NCFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
609 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on June 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.
.DISCUSSION...
Rinse and repeat of yesterday, though slightly warmer.
SWerly flow will last through the end of the week.
Though low level moisture will increase, the warming trend to
MaxTs in the mid 90s today and FRI will have a negative effect on
MinRHs. Heat Advisory will likely be needed FRI.
That SWerly flow will be strengthening to about 10G15mph through
midday ahead of the sea breeze which will shift winds to become
more Serly and a little gustier, 10G15-20mph in the late afternoon and
evening. Seabreeze is currently forecast to cross through the fire site
around 1500edt. This wind pattern will repeat again FRI.
Improved vent rates are expected the rest of the week.
SChc of leftover showers and tstorms crossing over the fire site
after midnight and pushing E of the area in the early morning hours.
Less than a tenth of an inch of rain expected.
Rain chances have come down slightly for afternoon pop up showers
today, around 10-14%, but slight chance of very light showers leftover
from this afternoon and evening rolling overhead in the early
morning hours FRI. Slightly better chances of seabreeze showers FRI
afternoon, ~15-20% and higher chances (30-40%) overnight FRI and in
the early morning SAT with showers/tstorms associated with a cold front.
The weak front crosses the area early SAT, stalling to the S. This front
will turn winds Nerly around sunrise SAT morning, continuing to veer
to become ENEerly through the day.
Early next week, weak troughing aloft opens up moisture transport
from the Gulf bringing greater chances of rain with low pressure
developing along the stalled boundary and working NEward across the
Carolinas.
Looking at around quarter of inch of rain total now through the weekend
and around three quarters of an inch MON-WED.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 16 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 66010 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 76.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.86 to 29.98 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23 14 12 9 6 4 6 12 25 32 38 33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75 77 78 81 84 87 89 91 92 93 92 90
RH..............87 82 79 74 67 61 56 52 51 49 52 58
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.2 4.8 3.1 2.3
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.14 14 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 15
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............9 14 28 29 41 53 60 68 76 70 42 41
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 6 21 23 32 42 50 58 66 60 40 34
Sfc pres (in)...997 997 998 997 997 995 994 992 991 989 987 986
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
becoming partly cloudy then becoming mostly
cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 5175 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 8.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.86 to 29.90 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........28 33 44 46 46 51 47 38 33 34 34 51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............88 85 82 81 80 79 79 78 78 78 77 78
RH..............61 65 69 72 77 79 79 79 79 79 79 76
20 FT wind dir..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.18 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
Transp wind spd.17 16 15 14 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 12
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ADI.............33 14 13 12 11 11 12 8 8 8 8 10
Vrate mph-ft/1K.26 15 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5
Sfc pres (in)...986 987 988 989 989 990 989 988 987 987 987 988
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers early in
the morning. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 60029 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 71.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.81 to 29.93 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 43 30 30 30 30 31 33 33 33 32 31
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
Temp............78 80 81 84 87 89 92 93 94 94 93 91
RH..............76 74 72 65 59 57 52 51 49 49 51 56
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.3 3.5 1.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.13 13 14 15 14 14 12 12 12 14 15 17
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............11 13 19 29 33 40 41 51 58 71 52 40
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 8 14 22 26 31 33 42 48 60 52 32
Sfc pres (in)...990 992 993 992 990 988 986 985 984 983 982 981
$$
Forecaster...Bowen
Requested by...PSC3
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614952.6/MHX
.DELDT 06/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL d13opsrm@ncagr.gov,ncfs.imt.plans@ncagr.gov