Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
243
FNUS72 KMHX 300954
FWSMHX
Spot Forecast for Black Swamp Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
554 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.
.DISCUSSION....
A threat of showers and thunderstorms will persist through
Saturday, which will support an increased risk of wetting
rainfall. A strong cold front will bring thunderstorms to the area
this afternoon, some of which could become strong to severe in
nature bringing a threat for frequent lightning, strong winds (60+
mph gusts), hail, and an isolated tornado threat. General timing
for the thunderstorm threat will be between 5 to 9PM today. Light
SW`rly winds this morning will increase by this afternoon to 10-20
mph with 20-30 mph gusts possible this afternoon. A renewed
threat for thunderstorm activity will occur on Saturday as an
upper level trough swings through the area. However, from Sunday
onwards, expect a drying trend with high pressure finally building
into the area from the west.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning.
Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day.
Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 20
to 22 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 88435 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 88.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.64 to 29.85 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80 71 66 61 53 49 48 47 46 50 58 63
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............69 69 70 72 73 76 78 80 82 82 82 81
RH..............97 97 93 90 87 79 74 69 65 65 65 67
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.5 9 9 9 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.9 10 13 13 15 15 16 16 17 18 20 22
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 8 21 24 43 52 68 61 81 88 74 82
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4 8 16 19 37 42 56 49 68 74 80 88
Sfc pres (in)...985 985 985 985 983 981 978 975 972 969 966 964
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
evening, then slight chance of showers
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the west
around 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing Height.......Min 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph shifting to the west 15
to 20 mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 7014 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 7.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.62 to 29.65 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69 82 88 86 81 79 62 30 13 11 5 2
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH
Temp............79 77 75 73 71 70 68 67 65 63 62 61
RH..............72 76 79 81 84 84 87 84 87 87 84 84
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 18 17 17 16 18 21 20 17 15 15 15
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4
ADI.............51 16 15 15 14 16 19 9 8 7 7 7
Vrate mph-ft/1K.42 13 10 9 9 10 13 18 9 7 7 7
Sfc pres (in)...963 962 962 962 962 963 964 965 965 965 964 963
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 84180 mph-ft increasing to Max 199984
mph-ft in the afternoon.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 129.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........29.55 to 29.69 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........1 1 2 10 33 47
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC
Temp............61 63 71 76 80 81
RH..............81 75 59 50 44 44
20 ft wind......W 6 W 6 W 8 W 10 W 11 W 11
20 ft wind gust.9 9 14 18 18 18
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1300 3000 5400 7600 5800
Transport wind..W 14 W 17 W 20 W 23 W 26 W 24
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 29 72 98 129 104
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 22 58 124 200 137
Sfc pres (in)...29.65 29.69 29.67 29.63 29.57 29.55
$$
Forecaster...Fucheck
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514884.1/MHX
.DELDT 05/30/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL victoria.payne@usda.gov,david.l.nelson@usda.gov