839
FNUS72 KMHX 240856
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Black Swamp Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
456 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
Cool and dry high pressure will remain over through tomorrow
morning. Late tomorrow and through early next week, conditions
turn more unsettled as a weak boundary moves in the area and
stalls with several waves of low pressure passing along it.

Dry airmass again today with min RH`s expected to be 25-30% and
westerly winds gusting 15 to 20 mph. However with recent rains,
fire weather concerns should remain low.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning, then becoming light early in the
                    afternoon becoming west 6 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph shifting to the west 9 to 16
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 103499 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  18  16  13  8   5   8   15  19  22  27  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  61  65  70  74  76  78  79  81  81  80
RH..............61  59  53  45  35  29  28  28  28  26  26  27
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   5   4   3   5   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.                    5   5           14  9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.8 2.3 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  8   10  12  10  9   9   12  14  14  15  16
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4   3   9   27  36  38  46  63  84  88  97  103

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to
                    6 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    west around 6 mph early in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Min 1954 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........32  35  36  35  33  31  34  38  40  40  40  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............79  76  73  69  64  60  58  58  58  56  56  57
RH..............29  34  40  49  60  75  80  83  86  93  96  93
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   5   2   2   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.                5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  9   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   6   6   6
Vrate mph-ft/1K.74  12  3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    9 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 44275 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........40     42     40     40     54     62
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp............58     64     73     77     78     77
RH..............93     75     55     47     48     52
20 ft wind......W 1    NW 1   NW 2   W 3    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.                     5
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2200   3700   4300   2800
Transport wind..NW 6   NW 5   W 7    W 8    SW 10  S 10
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2      3      15     30     44     30

$$
Forecaster...Kearns
Requested by...Brent Foltz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514330.3/MHX
.DELDT 05/24/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brent.foltz@usda.gov,victoria.payne@usda.gov,david.l.nelson@usda.gov,zebron.watts@usda.gov