099
FNUS72 KMHX 060935
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Black Swamp Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
535 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
Minimum relative humidities today will be in the 30-40% range,
as drier air moves in from the west. Winds will be 5-10 mph out
of the southwest, gaining a more southerly component behind the
sea breeze which progresses through the forecast point between
2-4 PM. Fog chances return for tonight as winds become light to
calm, although there is a high degree of uncertainty at this point.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 15 mph increasing to 13 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 114999 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 125.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........30.00 to 30.06 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  21  22  18  7   4   6   9   17  16  17  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  62  64  69  75  78  81  82  83  83  84  82
RH..............93  93  81  63  48  41  39  38  36  36  35  38
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   7   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.            5   5   9   9   14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.7 4.0 5.3 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   6   9   13  15  17  16  15  14  13
LVORI...........6   6   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   7   7   8   32  65  91  125 114 107 93  74
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2   3   4   6   25  51  80  115 103 99  84  64
Sfc pres (in)...000 003 006 006 006 005 005 005 005 004 003 001

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Min 1494 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 7.
ADI.................Min 2.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........30.00 to 30.04 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  7   6   4   3   5   6   7   15  21  22  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  78  72  69  68  66  65  64  63  61  60  59
RH..............41  46  59  68  73  81  83  86  84  87  90  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.14  9   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.10  8   8   7   6   7   5   6   5   5   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   5   5   6   5   6   7   7
ADI.............48  4   4   3   3   3   2   3   2   2   2   2
Vrate mph-ft/1K.40  15  4   3   2   3   2   2   2   2   1   1
Sfc pres (in)...001 000 001 002 003 004 003 002 001 001 000 001

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 3 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the west 6 to 13 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 66815 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Max 76.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.98 to 30.04 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     38     37     37     39     51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............58     62     74     81     83     83
RH..............93     89     55     42     38     38
20 ft wind......W 2    E 2    SE 2   SW 4   SW 6   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.       5      5      9      9      14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2700   6000   6900   4800
Transport wind..W 5    N 3    W 6    W 8    W 9    SW 12
LVORI...........6      6      2      1      1      1
ADI.............2      3      21     61     76     49
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2      1      16     50     63     59
Sfc pres (in)...30.02  30.04  30.03  30.03  30.03  29.99

$$
Forecaster...Jain
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512797.2/MHX
.DELDT 05/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.l.nelson@usda.gov