333
FXUS62 KMHX 281019
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
619 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early
next week, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland.
The next frontal system approaches the east coast mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 620 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- Heat index values will peak at 100-105 degrees this afternoon.

Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore and weak troughing
across the Piedmont. Strong ridging aloft will help inhibit
convection, and only isolated to widely scattered diurnal
thunderstorms are expected, mostly initiated by sea/sound
breezes. Weak shear will again limit the threat for organized
convection. High temps will again climb into the low to mid 90s,
and with humid conditions persisting, heat indices will reach
100 to 105 this afternoon. A few places could top 105, but it
looks like this will be isolated enough to forgo heat headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Sat...Any lingering convection will wane with loss
of heating, giving way to another quiet and muggy night. Lows
will fall into the low/mid 70s inland and upper 70s for the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat indices
100-105F every afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Wednesday
   increases rain chances Wednesday PM, and could bring heavy
   rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Upper level ridge continues weakening, eventually shifting offshore,
as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F
likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of several days with
high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something for
those working or spending much time outside to consider as they make
preparations for the heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea breeze
will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development each day.
Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors pulse
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level support
keeps PoPs in the chance to slight chance range through Tuesday, as
coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Mid next week, a
frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the best
upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still uncertain
if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow through the
region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week, highest Wednesday PM when
models suggest the frontal precip moves through. Severe potential
looks to be limited at this time, with best upper level forcing and
shear well to the north. However, ample instability paired with
PWATS near 2" could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
stronger wind gusts with convection associated with the front. If
the front ends up stalling over the region next week, this could
provide an axis for persistent, heavy precip, and will be worth
monitoring for flash flooding concerns. Plenty of possible scenarios
at this point with the frontal passage still 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 620 AM Sat...VFR conditions across the terminals this
morning. Light MVFR patchy fog possible through 12z, with best
chances at PGV. Widely scattered showers and tstms expected to
develop this afternoon, tapering off early evening...which could
bring brief periods of sub-VFR.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected through
the long term. Daily tstorm chances could bring reduced vis and
cigs, with the highest likelihood Wednesday PM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 620 AM Sat...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through the
period with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. SW
winds will increase to 10-20 kt late this afternoon and evening
as thermal gradient strengthens, then diminishing to 5-15 kt
late tonight and early Sun morning. Seas will continue at 2-4
ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday though Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Great boating conditions are expected
through Sunday as a ridge of high pressure lingers over the
region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which will
allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength and
direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are expected
Sunday morning, with winds increasing in the afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea breeze
for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient for
coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2- 3 ft through Sunday, with
4 footers along the Gulf Stream. Monday and Tuesday pressure
gradient tightens with high strengthening offshore, and winds
pick up to become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be
4-6 ft. Monday night through Tuesday will be our next best
chance of seeing small craft advisory criteria conditions for
coastal waters, Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ