281
FXUS62 KMHX 140202
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1002 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
General troughiness will continue across the Carolinas over the
next couple of days before high pressure builds back into the
area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 10 PM Wed...No big changes with eve update. Still can`t
rule out a storm or two with some sct showers as next in series
of subtle upper impulses pulses through ENC. Given MU CAPE is
above 3K J/KG in a very moist atms, cannot confidently remove
thunder threat for the rest of the overnight.

Prev disc... As of 7 PM Wed...The late day rally for convection
never materialized, thanks to daytime stratiform light rain.
Waning instability will mean chances just go down from here on
out through the night. NBM ProbThunder much too high again
tonight, and cut back on the potential quite a bit. Cont chc
showers with slight chc thunder rest of the evening.

Prev disc...As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Continued risk of heavy rain and flooding this evening and
   again on Thursday

Early this afternoon, a shortwave was noted along the NC/VA
border NE of Raleigh. This shortwave has been responsible for
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms from southern VA
south through central/eastern NC. Recent IR satellite has shown
a warming trend with cloud tops associated with the central NC
convection, and the downstream airmass has yet to fully recover
from the morning cap. In light of this, I expect the central NC
convection to remain weak as it moves into ENC by mid-afternoon.

From mid-afternoon into this evening, the question is how much
destabilization can occur in the wake of the ongoing convection.
Recent RAP guidance suggests continued southwesterly flow south
of the ongoing shortwave should support continued warm/moist
advection. Visible satellite shows significant breaks in the
clouds, and this should support moderate to strong heating, with
MLCAPE climbing to 2000+ j/kg. The greatest large-scale forcing
will be shifting away from the area as the shortwave moves
offshore, but a lingering area of low-mid level convergence may
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm redevelopment in the
2-5 pm timeframe. Slightly better low-mid level flow should
support deep layer shear of 20-30kt, and when combined with
moderate instability, could support a few stronger
thunderstorms. The primary risk should be damaging winds. In
addition to the wind risk, high PWATs and very saturated soils
should continue to support a risk of flooding/flash flooding. Of
note, much of the coastal plain of ENC is running 300-500% of
normal for rainfall over the past week. Because of this, it
won`t take much for small creeks, streams, and rivers to respond
to additional rainfall. While flooding is a concern through
this evening, the more isolated nature of the flooding potential
favors holding off on a Flood Watch. Trends in radar and model
guidance will be monitored in case this risk were to increase.

Later this evening and into the overnight hours, the risk of
thunderstorms is expected to decrease as the strongest forcing
continues to shift away from the area. However, like the past
several nights, modest instability and anomalous moisture will
be supportive of showers and thunderstorms where any boundaries
linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

On Thursday, a shortwave (currently prominently visible on
satellite imagery over southern Alabama) will translate east
across the Carolinas. Like today, this wave is forecast to move
through during peak heating, interacting with an unstable and
very moist airmass. This appears supportive of another round of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Once again,
heavy rainfall and flooding look to be the primary concern. A
few stronger wind gusts may occur, although the best shear is
forecast to be removed just to the south of ENC, and this may
tend to keep the "greatest" risk of strong winds just to the
south of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Rain, heavy at times, possible each afternoon and evening
   through Friday, before drier conditions return for the
   weekend

High pressure moves offshore through the rest of the week, and
a more typical summer pattern will develop as the offshore
trough is kicked out to sea. Meanwhile, a shortwave will be
moving through late Thursday into Friday, eventually producing
a weak area of low pressure which shifts offshore late Friday.
This will result in above climo precip chances through Friday.
PWATs well over 2" with a moist, unstable atmospheric profile
will be capable of producing very heavy rain rates. Fortunately
the storms should be more progressive in nature, leading to only
a localized flash flooding threat. WPC has us in a marginal
(1/5) risk of excessive rainfall Friday. This weekend E/NE flow
helps pin the sea breeze closer to the coast and ushers in a
drier setup as high pressure dominates in the wake of Thursday`s
front. Early next week a weak front will approach the region
from the north, although a drier setup leaves precip chances to
be murky at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wed...Later tonight into early Thursday morning,
there is a modest signal for low stratus to impact the area. The
signal isn`t as strong as it was for last night. For this
reason, I`ve opted to trend the TAFs more optimistic, showing
VFR through the night. We`ll continue to closely monitor this
potential, though. Yet another round of TSRA appears likely on
Thursday, but confidence is low regarding the timing, so no
additional PROB30s have been added yet.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Isolated to scattered tstorm chances
through Friday, with best chances of more robust coverage
through Thursday afternoon/evening. Drier conditions expected
Saturday and Sunday. Threat of low stratus and some fog
continues each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Continued risk of thunderstorms for area waters, especially
   this evening and tonight

Westerly flow of 10-15kt is expected to continue this
afternoon, then become southwesterly this evening. Southwesterly
winds then continue into the day Thursday. Occasional gusts of
20+ kt will be possible this evening, but the risk of 25kt winds
appears to be lower than previously thought, and we continue to
not see any need for marine headlines through tonight. For the
coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft are expected through Thursday.
Seas may reach 5 ft south of Cape Hatteras this evening into
early Thursday morning.

The main impact for boaters through Thursday will be
thunderstorms. After a lull this afternoon, the risk is expected
to increase this evening and into the overnight hours. Where
thunderstorms develop, there will be significant reductions to
visibility, the potential for waterspouts, and the potential for
30-50kt winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...More typical southwesterly winds to
start off the long term as high pressure offshore sinks Sward.
Shortwave moving through late Thursday spins off a weak low
offshore Friday, with high pressure building in for the weekend.
This brings north/northeast winds at 10-20kts late Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ