991
FXUS62 KMHX 230223
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1023 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front moves through late tonight. Cool and dry high
pressure then builds in from the west Friday through most of the
holiday weekend. By Memorial Day and early next week, more
unsettled weather is possible as multiple waves of low pressure
move along a front over the Southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1025 PM Thu...Kudos to the HRRR...showers and an
occasional thunderstorm indeed popped up roughly along Highway
74 as cold front continues to gradually progress across North
Carolina. Expecting this activity to gradually track across the
Crystal Coast through midnight, exiting offshore and leaving the
region dry. There are hints of a second round of showers
quickly marching across the same area around daybreak as the
main front pushes offshore, but will defer to incoming shift to
access latest guidance.

Prev disc...An upper level trough will remain over the southern
Mid- Atlantic tonight with a very dry airmass persisting over
ENC. A secondary/reinforcing cold front will move through
overnight, with little impacts other than a wind shift to the
NW. Some radiational cooling is possible early tonight, but
expect conditions to be mixed after midnight. Still, a cooler
airmass moving in will yield lows in the low to mid 50s, and
upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Thu...Dry westerly flow continues Friday as high
slowly moves into the region. Highs in the mid to upper 70s,
with some spots maybe reaching 80 degrees and mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thu...Update: Inc pops on Sun/Sun night as compact
shortwave swings through. 22/12Z ECM consistent on this soln,
and have inc pops to 40-60% pops, highest overnight Sun night.
Also, lower overnight lows Fri night through Sat night, as
cool/dry airmass in place lead to good rad cooling, and
therefore sided with cooler guidance. Some protected areas will
dip down into the upper 40s, with most areas in the 50-55 degree
range.

As of 340 AM Thursday...

Seasonably cooler through the first half of weekend with weak high
pressure overhead. Pattern returns to unsettled early next week
as a weak boundary sets up across the Southeastern U.S. coast.

By Friday, an anomalous upper low will setup over New England.
Within this regime, a persistent northwesterly flow aloft and
offshore flow at the surface should support several days of
temperatures a few degrees below normal for late May. Guidance
suggests highs only in the mid to upper 70s during this time
through Sunday, with lows in the low to mid 50s. Of note, some
of the coldest guidance suggests lows may fall into the upper
40s in the typically colder spots away from bodies of water.
Given the dry airmass in place, do not anticipate afternoon
showers through Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, daytime heating
combined with light southerly flow and a weak sea-breeze
boundary could lead to a few diurnally-driven showers, though
capping PoPs at slight chance for now.

Early next week...Behind the low aloft departing to the NE,
weak ridging takes shape ahead of the next system digging across
CONUS. Warm front aloft extending from the approaching low lift
northward through the area late Sunday afternoon/night. Wide
range of model solutions given the plethora of smaller scale
details in play with the progression of this next system so
details are fuzzy at best; key take away is period is warmer
(back into the 80s) and wetter from late Sunday into Wednesday
when a stalled boundary may setup across the Carolinas with
weak surface lows traversing the area from west to east.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/...
As of 750 PM Thu...VFR conditions continue through the period.
Winds become 5-10 kt. Signal for LLWS has weakened from the
prior forecast and has been removed from the TAF, although GA
interests should remain vigilant behind the front between
03-06z. Friday, another day of great mixing as winds out of the
west gust up to 20 kt while skies remain mostly clear.


LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday....A dry airmass should support mostly
VFR conditions into the weekend. Next best chance for sub-VFR
conditions across Eastern NC will be Sunday afternoon into
early next week as a stalled boundary sets up across the
Carolinas with warming dew points and unsettled weather.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 215 PM Thu...Small craft conditions are developing this
afternoon as W winds are bringing gusts up to 25-30kts for
northern sounds and northern coastal waters. Soon, a more SW
flow makes an appearance and strengthen to 20-25 kts with gusts
to 30 kts and seas 4-6 ft across the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet. A dry cold front moves through tonight, briefly
switching winds to become NW gusting up to 25 kts. Marine
conditions will be improving for all waters before sunrise,
becoming headline free by 9Z. Mixing in the afternoon tomorrow
could bring infrequent gusts of 25 kts to inland waters, but
with a lack of confidence and less support compared to today, at
this point I have elected to not issue SCA for Friday.


LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

Winds remain generally westerly 10-20kt Friday and W to
northwesterly through Saturday. Winds return to southerly late
Sunday ahead of a stalled boundary across the NC waters through
early next week. Weak areas of low pressure may cross the waters
from west to east Monday into Tuesday, however winds should
remain below SCA levels.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...DAG/MS
MARINE...DAG/RJ