378
FXUS62 KMHX 050623
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Heat Advisory continues for portions of
the area today. Severe weather possible again this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Saturday.

2) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
Main threats damaging wind gusts, hail and localized flooding,
with the greatest threat between 3-11 PM.

3) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and
dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep
temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking
heat continuing today, with heat index values peaking at
105-110 deg this afternoon for most of the area. Heat Advisory
continues for most of the area, with highs in the 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas later today and
tonight. This plus increased forcing along the cold front and
other lingering boundaries should support an increased risk of
deep convection, and less limiting factors, compared to previous
days. PW`s/TD`s inc further and with lowering hts aloft,
instability will be very strong. In fact, vals will be well
above the avg max for first week of September according to the
KMHX sounding climatology, with ML CAPE vals advertised by the
RRFS/ECM/NAM3k reaching or exceeding 4 kJ/kg. If convective
timing aligns with fropa/shortwave passage in the afternoon, a
significant severe weather signal may be met as this aligns with
stout deep layer shear, possibly in excess of 35-45kt. Machine
learning severe probs for damaging wind continue to tick up for
parts of ENC. In addition to the severe threat, will have to
watch for potential flash flood threat, as PWs surge to 2.25" or
higher, and with the expected numerous convection, very heavy
rain rates are possible with deeper convection and lend to
instances of flash flooding, especially with potential for
training of storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity
will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early
September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early
next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and
may see some sct showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as
we begin the work week with pops less than 20% lasting through
mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and
is where our temps should be for the first half of September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning with
lingering sct mid and high clouds. This should limit any fog or
low stratus threat overnight. Sct to numerous showers and
storms expected this afternoon and evening as cold front drops
through the area. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any
TSRA. Some storms have the potential to be strong to severe with
winds in excess of 50kt and strongest storms having hail as
well. Precip will taper off from west to east late evening, with
potential for fog and low stratus to develop early Sun morning.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Behind the front, a northeasterly
wind shift will occur, with northeasterly flow continuing into
early next week. This could lead to periods of sub-VFR ceilings,
esp Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Dropped SCA with winds diminishing. Latest obs show S-W winds
5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Cold front currently draped through
the Mid-Atlantic will slowly sink southward through the waters
later today and into tonight. Winds will grad veer through the
day becoming N/NE behind the front, remaining SW ahead of it
with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected this afternoon and evening. Some could be strong to
severe, with freq lightning and strong wind gusts.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will
develop Sunday and continue into Monday, with seas building to
4-8 ft, highest across the outer waters. SCA conditions likely
for portions of the waters. Winds and seas will begin to ease
Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/05 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/1983  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         100/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/1983  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB