483
FXUS62 KMHX 201239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
739 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory expanded to include the Neuse and Bay
Rivers.

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the northern portions
of the forecast area.

Added a slight chance of thunderstorms across inland areas
today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog across the region this morning.

2) A weakening cold front will approach the area today with a
line of pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorm possible
this afternoon.

3) High temperatures may approach record values today.

4) Low pressure system is forecast to bring unsettled
conditions to ENC late this weekend into early next week.

Marine...Areas of dense sea fog will continue to plague the ENC
waters today. There is a chance for gale force winds late this
weekend into early next week across our waters as a rapidly
deepening low pushes off the Mid-Atantic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)...There are two separate conditions bringing
areas of dense fog across ENC early this morning. The first is
warm and moist SW flow across the much cooler coastal waters
bringing sea fog across the waters and adjacent land areas,
including the Crystal Coast and the OBX. In addition, a front
has front has dropped into the area and has stalled just south
of the Pamlico River to near Kinston and Goldsboro and fog and
low stratus has developed to the north of this boundary.
Visibilities have dropped as low as 1/4 mile across the
affected area and have now issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the
northern half of the forecast area, generally north of highway
70. The front is expected to lift back to the north by mid
morning with visibilities improving across inland areas, however
moist SW flow will persist through the day keeping the threat
of dense fog along the coast through much of the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2)...An upper low will track across the Great Lakes
today with an attendant cold front approaching from the west.
Embedded shortwave energy will push across the region with warm
and moist SW flow ahead of the front bringing a chance
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. HiRes
guidance shows a few showers pushing across the region this
morning followed by a weakening line of pre frontal showers
pushing across the region this afternoon. The warm and moist
conditions will allow for modest instability across inland
locations with more robust guidance showing MUCAPE around 1000
J/Kg this afternoon while strengthening deep layer SW winds will
bring 0-6 km bulk shear to around 50 kt. Thunderstorms that
develop are expected to remain sub-severe but they could bring
locally gusty winds. The threat for storms will be greatest west
of Highway 17 as the cold waters along the coast and sounds
bringing much more stable conditions along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3)...Increasing SW flow across the region today
will bring low level thickness around 1390-1395m across inland
locations this afternoon which brings the potential for temps to
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s if sufficient insolation is
realized. However, if clouds and showers remain more prevalent,
high temps will likely remain in the mid to upper 70s. Record
highs are in the lower 80s inland from the coast and the record
values for established climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE
section below. Across the immediate coast and OBX, below normal
water temperatures will keep these areas cooler with highs in
the 50s to 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 4)...Guidance remains in good agreement with a
positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Pacific
Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough
taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it
pushes off the coast early next week. At the mid levels southern
stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the
Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives
S`wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern
stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface,
cold front will drop SE`wards across ENC late tonight and stall
south of the area on Saturday with a wave of low pressure then
riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes
offshore bringing chances for rain across the region this
weekend. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sun
night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the
departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast
allowing temps to fall into the 30s. There is a chance for a non
impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this
weekend Sun night into Mon. However, this will likely be the
typical cold air chasing the moisture setup so have little
confidence in any other ptype besides rain. A shortwave rotating
through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip
lingering through Monday. We will also need to be on the lookout
for stronger winds on the backside of the low as it departs and
deepens as this could bring additional coastal impacts worst
case scenario.

Biggest challenge with this setup will be when the low begins
to deepen as a weaker and more out to sea low track will result
in lower impacts from this system while a stronger and closer to
the coast track will bring greater impacts to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR across TAF sites with some fog still causing MVFR VIS
at PGV, but this will quickly dissipate. LLWS is also of
concern with 35-45kt winds above the inversion around FL015-020
for the next few hours.

Improvement to VFR as initial front lifts Nward, but MVFR CIGs
are expected to develop as scattered showers are forecast ahead
of a cold front approaching from the W. SW winds gusts 15-25 kt
Fri afternoon.

Outlook: VFR likely to return by Fri evening and cont through
at least mid day Sat. MVFR and IFR flight cats possible Sat
night and Sun as an area of low pressure travels through the
area along FRI night`s front that will have stalled to the
south, bringing likely rain, lower CIGs/VIS, and stronger winds
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm and moist SW flow advecting over the cool SSTs is leading
to areas to widespread sea fog along the coast and sounds this
morning. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for all
of the waters save for the Neuse where VIS has improved. Moist
SW flow will persist today keeping the threat for dense fog for
much of the day, although the rest of the inland rivers will
likely see improving conditions mid to late morning.

A stationary front is currently stalled across the central
waters early this morning but will lift back to the north around
mid morning with increasing SW flow today as a cold front
approaches from the west. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected
across much of the cooler waters, but offshore near the warmer
Gulf Stream waters will see winds around 20-30 kt. Seas are
forecast to build to around 4-7 ft in response with the stronger
winds. Winds and seas will diminish tonight with a cold front
pushing across the area and stalling offshore. An SCA remains in
effect south of Oregon Inlet until late tonight.

Outlook: A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the
coastal waters on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force
conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly
deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The strength and location of
the low will go a long way in determining what conditions our
coastal waters see so continue to keep a close eye on forecast
trends in the coming days in case the forecast trends more
optimistic or pessimistic.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Friday 02/20

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         81/1991  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    74/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/2018  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    73/1994  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          82/1939  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     82/1991  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ046-047-
     080-081.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-135-
     136-230-231.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/RCF