635
FXUS62 KMHX 051813
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
213 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued SCA for the nearshore central waters late Wed into Fri
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated storms may become strong to severe.

2) High pressure will build in Friday and bring a brief round
of dry conditions.

3) Another front will move through early next week, with
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest Thursday, becoming neutral to
negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the
surface, a cold front will move into ENC late Thursday
afternoon/early evening and push offshore by Thursday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
day, and there`s a low but non-zero chance for some storms to be
strong to marginally severe. Forcing will be lacking in the
morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be
dampened. While ample bulk shear will be present throughout the
day, and the low pressure that is expected to form along the
front could produce an area of enhanced lift, chances for
severe storms remain low at this time (< 10%). Machine learning
probs continue to trend down with each subsequent run. Current
QPF ranges from 0.25-1" with highest totals west of Highway 17.
In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring gusty SW
winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph along the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surface high pressure will briefly build in on
Friday. This should help keep most of the precipitation
associated with the low along the offshore front south of our
area, but isolated light showers along the immediate coast can`t
be ruled out Friday night as the high moves offshore. As the
aforementioned offshore low moves northeast off the coast of the
Carolinas on Saturday coupled with shortwave energy, sct showers
will be possible with greatest chances along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another frontal system and wave of low pressure
will approach the area late weekend into early next week,
bringing increased chances for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday. Right now it looks like another potential high
shear/low CAPE setup, so will continue to monitor the potential
for stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. CIGs around
5,000 feet this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. While
not quite as windy as Monday, gusts all terminals toward 20 kts
through late afternoon.

Increasing clouds tonight and a light breeze should preclude fog
formation. Increasing and lowering clouds Wednesday ahead of a
cold front, still VFR.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be
Wednesday night/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure
system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring
showers and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced
ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SSW winds at 10-15 kt and seas at 2-3 ft. Winds
will increase to 10-20 kt late this afternoon and evening with
seas building to 2-4 ft. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible,
but again looks too marginal for SCA at this time. Moderate to
gusty SSW winds will continue Wed and Wed night ahead of an
approaching cold front. Issued SCA for the central waters
beginning Wed afternoon. Remaining coastal waters and sounds may
be close to freq 25 kt gusts, but think that will hold off until
Wed night.

Outlook: SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt Wednesday night into Thu. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday
night behind the front with seas peaking at 5-8 ft. Winds will
decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by Friday morning
with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be
possible on Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...EH
MARINE...CQD