587
FXUS62 KMHX 052041
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
441 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across ENC tonight and push offshore on
Friday bringing widespread rainfall to ENC tonight. A cold
front will then move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled
weather will continue through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 PM Thur...A rather unsettled day today with
widespread cloud cover, showers, with even some isolated
thunderstorms across the region. Some of the rain showers have
been heavy at times especially across portions of the Crystal
Coast where 1-3" of rain have already fallen across portions of
Onslow and Duplin Counties. Temps have gotten well into the 70s
despite the cloudcover keeping things warm and muggy across ENC
this afternoon.

Otherwise previously mentioned weak low pressure is currently
analyzed just east of Charlotte with its associated warm front
extending E`wards just south of Duplin and Onslow Counties with
this lows associated cold front extending S from Fayetteville
into SC. Between both fronts, a tongue of 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 20-25 kts of shear are noted via the RAP analysis.
This will at least promote a conditional threat for continued
thunderstorm development. Widespread rain and isolated
thunderstorm activity is noted along both fronts this afternoon
and general expectation is for the low and its associated
fronts to slowly push NE`wards through tonight continuing to
bring widespread rainfall and some thunderstorm activity to the
area. With PWAT`s generally around 2+ inches some periods of
heavy rain are still possible this evening and tonight
especially along the Crystal Coast and OBX. While widespread
flooding isn`t expected some localized flooding issues
especially across our more urban areas are still possible. See
HYDRO section for more information. As we get later into tonight
expect shower and thunderstorm chances to quickly decrease from
west to east as the low gradually pushes offshore with its
fronts. Lows tonight get into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 430 PM Thurs... The trend has certainly been our friend
for Fridays forecast. Expect previously mentioned low pressure
system to push offshore in the morning bringing any leftover
shower activity offshore and away from ENC just after daybreak
allowing for skies to clear behind the departing low. With skies
clearing and moisture sticking around ENC, expect instability
to build back up once again on Friday and as the seabreeze gets
started and a weak shortwave pushes overhead Fri afternoon,
could sea a few isolated thunderstorms across the CWA. With this
in mind, have continued to lower PoP`s across the area to SChc
as Hi-Res guidance continues to suggest showers and storms will
be very isolated in nature overall. While we will have
instability across the region, wind shear will remain weak so
not expecting any storm that develops to be particularly strong.
Temps will get into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long
   term.

 - Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and
0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around
1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling across
the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the warmest
day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s along the coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest
shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially
during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a
descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values
around 1.75-2" most days, which is above the 90th percentile for
this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day.
Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday morning/...
As of 140 PM Thurs...A mixed bag of flight conditions across
ENC this afternoon as scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue to impact the region bringing anywhere
from brief periods of VFR to MVFR/IFR. Latest surface obs show a
warm front to the north of the area with a surface trough
lifting north into ENC this afternoon. Low pressure which is
currently located to the west of the area should gradually lift
NE`wards through this evening and in between all the boundaries
and the low this should bring widespread rain and isolated
thunderstorm activity as well as low clouds to ENC resulting in
widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings with maybe some brief breaks to VFR
this afternoon and evening. Did add in a tempo group at OAJ for
TSRA as the thinking is this location has the best chance to
see Tstms this afternoon with instability around 500-100 J/kg
sneaking up into portions of Duplin/Onslow County. Elsewhere
left a prob 30 group where confidence is lower tstms make it
that far. Rain and tstm chances decrease rapidly tonight, but
IFR ceilings likely overspread the area as the aforementioned
low slowly departs and remain in place into Fri morning before
scattering out. Southerly winds around 10 kts will briefly
become light ad variable tonight before shifting to a SW and
then W`rly direction overnight into Fri morning at about 5-10
kts.

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Monday/...
As of 5 AM Thursday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through
much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the region. There
will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each
day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 430 PM Thurs... No significant changes to the forecast as
widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms and 10-20 kt winds with
gusts up to 25 kts remain possible across our waters this
evening and tonight as a low pressure system gradually pushes
across the area. As the low passes late tonight, 15-20 kt winds
will veer to the southwest. 2-4 ft seas will respond by build
to 4-6 ft south of Cape Hatteras, and 3-5 ft north of Cape
Hatteras. This should allow for a brief period of low end SCA
conditions to develop mainly south of Cape Hatteras with any SCA
that develops will fall below SCA conditions by daybreak at the
latest. Stronger thunderstorms will also have the potential to
produce gusty winds and a brief waterspout. Low pushes offshore
on Fri morning allowing the pressure gradient to quickly relax
and for winds to ease down to 10-15 kts varying from SW south of
Cape Hatteras to NW north of Cape Hatteras with seas falling to
3-5 ft across all our coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 515 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will pull away
from the area Friday. Marginal SCA conditions south of Cape
Hatteras early Friday morning but should be gradually improving
through the day. A front approaches the waters Saturday but
stalls just inland from the coast before lifting to the north.
SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft expected to prevail
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 435 PM Thurs...The threat for heavy rainfall is on the
decrease but it is not over yet, especially over the next
several hours before low pressure pushes off the coast. This is
on top of parts of the region that have seen plenty of rainfall
already over the past 2 weeks. Generally 0.5-1.0 inches is
expected this evening into Fri morning with localized amounts in
excess of 1-2" will be possible. WPC has outlooked all of ENC
in a Marginal (1/5) risk for excessive rainfall. Impacts depend
on the convective mesoscale details as banding precipitation and
training of storms will play a big role in the precip
distribution. Overall though expect the heavy rainfall threat to
end between midnight and 6AM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX