229
FXUS62 KMHX 050553
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1253 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through ENC this evening, then
return north as a warm front by Thursday. Yet another cold
front moves through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Tue...The second portion of a cold front has pushed
through most of ENC now, and winds have increase behind this
front to 10-20 mph. With conditions mixed, temps are holding
steady in the upper 40s to low 50s, but eventually overnight as
CAA increases, readings will drop into the upper 30s inland by
sunrise, and the lower 40s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Much cooler conditions expected Wednesday, along with an
   increased chance of light rain

A weak upper level wave is forecast to move out of the TN
Valley on Wednesday, supporting the development of a weak area
of low pressure offshore along a developing coastal trough.
Increasing low-mid level moisture advection with that wave, plus
increased low-level forcing in the vicinity of the SFC
low/coastal trough should support areas of light rain developing
from south to north through the day, with the highest chance
holding off until the afternoon hours. While rainfall amounts
look low, guidance continues to show a fairly solid signal for
periods of rain. In light of this, the chance of rain has been
increased with this forecast update, especially during the mid
to late afternoon timeframe.

Regardless, a notable impact on Wednesday will be the much
cooler temperatures thanks to the colder, northeasterly flow,
widespread clouds, and a weak cold air damming setup. In fact,
guidance has continued to trend colder, and the forecast will
reflect this trend. This now gives highs only in the 40s and 50s
(compared to today`s 60s and 70s). Latest trends do show
however that a thin strip south of US 70 could reach the upper
50s to even 60 before the widespread low clouds and rain showers
move in tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 0300 Tuesday... The pattern becomes unsettled mid week into
the weekend, with multiple frontal systems impacting the area.

Midweek...Moisture rich midlevel air ahead of shortwave
approaching from the W leads to an increase in isentropic rain
chances into Thurs. Widespread LKLY overnight, waning from W to
E Thursday morning.

Late week...Strengthening low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
will keep moist Serly flow regime in place through the rest of
the work week ahead of the next cold front to push through ENC
Fri.

Weekend...The front will likely stall S of the area as high pressure
builds in from the N before lifting back Nward late Saturday, warm
sectoring the area ahead of the next front which will likely push
through the area later in the day Sunday.

Will keep at least SChc to Chc PoPs Wed through the weekend,
though certainly not expecting a washout. Best precip chances
look to be Wed night into Thu...then again with the next front
late weekend. Will keep sc thunder mention in for Thu, given the
strong shear despite the modest instability. Best chance for
extended dry periods late Thurs into early Fri. Above normal
temps will continue, with Thu and Sun likely the warmest days as
deeper SW flow develops ahead of the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Evening/...
As of 12:40 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions will persist
overnight, but MVFR ceilings will develop along the coast near
sunrise and spread inland with all TAF sites expected to lower
to MVFR ceilings between 7-9 am. With a weak area of low
pressure developing along a coastal trough, PoPs will increase
and ceilings will decrease throughout the day. All TAF sites are
expected to drop to LFR ceilings between 6-7 pm and possibly
even LIFR by tomorrow evening. During this time, chances will
increase for visibilities to drop to 3-5 miles across the
forecast area. IFR to LIFR conditions will likely continue
overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0315 Tuesday...Sub VFR flight cats are expected Wed
through most of Thursday with isentropic upglide showers across
most of the region. Conditions briefly improve late Thurs into
Friday before deteriorating once again this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 10 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Elevated winds and seas through early Wednesday morning

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect where the greatest risk
of 25kt wind gusts is expected behind a cold front. Have trimmed
the advisory area with winds not making it to criteria over the
Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet. Marginal
Small Craft conditions are still possible south of there to Cape
Lookout through early tomorrow morning.

On Wednesday, a coastal trough is forecast to develop offshore,
potentially with a weak area of low pressure developing
southwest of Cape Lookout. For now, the coastal trough looks to
remain far enough offshore to keep the flow northeasterly across
all waters through Wednesday afternoon. South of Cape Lookout,
the flow may begin to become more easterly, depending on how
quickly the area of low pressure develops.

Seas of 4-6 ft this continue tonight, with waves subsiding to
3-5 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0315 Tuesday...SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt Thu
ahead of approaching cold front with seas building to 4-7 ft.
The front is likely to push through the waters Friday, with
winds becoming N 10-20 kt and 3-5 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RM/SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...OJC/CEB
MARINE...RM/SGK/CEB