995
FXUS62 KMHX 160700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Sped up/increased and exapanded pops a bit with earlier frontal
arrival on Friday.

Updated 16/06Z Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through
Thursday with a warming trend back to above climo late in the
work week.


2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS
and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry
conditions across ENC through Thursday. Upper low retrograding
to the SSW across the offshore waters through Thursday may
bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions
expected to persist across land areas. NE flow regime remains
in place through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and
comfortable dewpoint/humidity levels, then will see gradually
warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high
pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to
veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front originally progged to move in Sat
has sped up per latest 16/00Z model suite, and now looks to move
into ENC on Friday. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft
as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with
increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers
and perhaps a few storms acrs nrn half of the FA, with best
chances N of Hwy 264 Friday afternoon into evening. Front slowly
sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers
and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more
muddled beyond Sat, though pops remain in the 30-50% range as
above climo PW`s will be in place along with wavy frontal
boundary residing acrs the sern CONUS. Temps rise to above climo
once again Fri into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR mainly SKC through the TAF pd other than some passing
cirrus. Still a possibility for some patchy shallow fog
development inland, but with drier TD`s that have filtered in,
have not included in the fcst attm. Winds will be light nerly on
Wed, slowly veering to serly late before becoming clam again
Wed night.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): High pressure cont to dominate with
predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is
progged to push south into the area as early as Fri with chances
for showers and perhaps a storm, which will cont the threat for
some unsettled weather into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Current buoy obs show NE winds cont to diminish with speeds 5-15
kt, highest on the offshore waters. Seas generally 2-4ft ocnl 5
ft sets outer waters @ 7-8sec cont. The light nerly flow will
cont today with speeds generally 5-10 kt g 15 kt.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Flow will veer to SE then S later
Thu into early Fri as the high to the north weakens. A cold
front drops into the nrn waters on Fri, bringing winds around
back to the north again from n to s through the afternoon. The
front clears the srn waters by later Fri night with nnerly winds
expected to inc a bit into the 10-20 kt range. Winds and seas
should remain below SCA however through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL