648
FXUS62 KMHX 162356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
656 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front shifts offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure
then builds back in from the northwest early this week, with
another quick moving front pushing through the area by mid-week.
Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing
temperatures through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Red Flag Warning expired at 6 PM

 - Brief cooldown tonight into Monday night

A cold front is progressing through ENC, about to shift
offshore. Behind the front, strong CAA will send temperatures
falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is right around, or
slightly below, normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

High pressure will build in from the west through the day
Monday, which will eventually lead to much lighter winds.
However, continued CAA and enhanced mixing during the morning
and early afternoon hours will combine with a residually modest
pressure gradient to support several hours of breezy winds from
just after sunrise through around 1-2pm. The continued CAA
behind the front will also help to keep temps down much lower
compared to today, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to
near 60. With high pressure squarely overhead Monday night,
winds are expected to be very light, setting up decent
radiational cooling conditions. Normally this type of setup
would favor going below blended guidance. However, the potential
for mid/high clouds suggests radiational cooling effects may be
tampered some. Additionally, bias-corrected blended guidance is
already below the 25th percentile of all guidance. Lows around
the 25th percentile of guidance appears reasonable in this
setup, especially given the potential for high clouds, so no
change from guidance was made. Regardless, widespread low to mid
30s appears likely. The coldest locations with limited
cloudcover could see lows fall below freezing. The areas most
likely to get close to, or below, freezing are the same counties
where the frost/freeze program has ended for 2025, therefore no
headlines are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Elevated fire weather concerns possible again Monday
   afternoon

 - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely
   from mid-week on

 - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend

Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one
also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs
in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended towards
stalling this boundary across the region through the later half
of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud
cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach
the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday.

Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will
bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

- NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots Monday

High pressure builds in behind the cold front that is about to
move offshore. This will result in clear skies and NW winds 4-10
kts tonight, gusting to 15-20 kts Monday during daytime heating.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high
pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems
transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring
isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance
keeps VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Elevated to strong winds to continue into this evening

 - Elevated seas to last into Monday

 - Elevated winds and seas potentially return late in the week

West to southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing at this time,
with higher gusts. The strongest winds are currently impacting
the warmer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, where gusts of
30-35kt have been observed at times. Winds may lay down a bit
over the next few hours, but a cold front will move through this
evening, with a renewed round of enhanced mixing potentially
supporting a continued risk of 25-35kt gusts. In light of this,
the Gale Warning has been extended out through 10pm this
evening. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to hold in the 25-30kt
range, and SCAs will continue there. Winds will lay down more
substantially by Monday afternoon, and especially by Monday
night as high pressure builds in.

For the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are
expected to continue through tonight, then lay down to 2-4ft by
Monday night. South of Lookout, seas of 4-7ft this afternoon
are expected to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday, with
southerly flow developing. Winds will then flip back and forth
between south and north as a couple of weak fronts move through.
At this time, these fronts are not expected to support 25kt, or
higher, winds. By late in the week, strengthening southerly
flow may support the next round of 25kt+ winds and 6ft+ seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 650 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Red Flag Warning has expired this evening

- Increased Fire Danger Statement has expired this evening

- Low-end fire weather concerns exist Monday

High pressure will build into the area tomorrow and Tuesday.
Minimum RHs will be in the 25-30% range on Monday, but northwest
winds will be lighter (around 10 mph gusting to 15-20 mph in
the afternoon). Although minimum RHs will meet criteria for an
Increased Fire Danger Statement, the winds will be just under
the threshold. However, if the wind forecast trends up, an
Increased FIre Danger Statement may be needed. RHs will increase
to 25-35% on Tuesday and winds will be light and variable,
making it a less likely candidate for any fire weather
headlines.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RJ
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX