893
FXUS62 KMHX 041145
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
745 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly slides farther offshore today with
seasonable and dry conditions continuing. Low pressure will
approach the area tonight and slowly move across ENC Thursday
into Thursday night bringing the potential for heavy rainfall
across the region. The low will pull away from the area Friday
with a cold front moving through ENC this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...High pressure continues to shift
offshore away from the coast today with a broad area of weak low
pressure starting to form off the GA/SC coast, slowly lifting
north closer to Eastern NC late in the day. Southeasterly winds
continue around 5-15 mph. Highs expected in the mid 80s inland
to upper 70s to around 80 along the coast/Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Key Messages:

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible Thursday and
  Thursday night.

- NHC continues to monitor the system for the potential for
  tropical development. If this system remains offshore the low
  could grad develop some subtropical or tropical
  characteristics (10% chance).

Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the SE coast and
lift towards the area Thu and track across ENC Thu night, which
will bring numerous showers with occasional thunder. For
tonight, rain will increase in coverage for the swrn zones, and
pops as high as 40-60% are in the fcst here during the predawn
hours. Precip quickly spreads n and e through the rest of ENC
during the morning hours Thu.

Regardless of whether the system attains some tropical
characteristics or not, periods of heavy rain will be the main
threat with this low, as PW`s surge above 2". For now, WPC has
ENC in a `marginal` risk for excessive rain, though some LPPM
guidance indicating rainfall totals as high as 5+", and if
precip is more convective in nature, these totals may very well
verify. An upgrade to a `slight` risk may be in the offing in
subsequent updates if the trend continues. Low level helicity
ramps up as well Thu night due to backed low level winds. Very
little instability is present however, so no more than scattered
thunder is expected at this time. If instability creeps upwards
from their current forecast values of less than 400 J/KG, a
tornado threat may be present during the day Thursday ahead of
the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tue....

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long
   term.

 - Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

Guidance coming into better agreement with the low pressure area
moving offshore Friday morning and accelerating away from the
area Friday afternoon and night. Heaviest precip is progged to
be off the coast but scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible across the region Friday. Temps
will be a few degrees below normal with N to NW flow behind the
departing low.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and
0-6k wind shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around the
90th percentile and the thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling
across the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the
warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland
and mid to upper 80s along the coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. Persistant SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical
moisture feed into the region with PW values around
1.75-2" most days,which is above the 90th percentile for this
time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day.
Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 AM Wed...VRF flight cats through the period. Upper
clouds will inc through the day ahead of the next system that
will begin to bring rain to ENC late tonight and early Thu.
Light erly winds early this AM will become serly and inc to 5-10
kt late morning through afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will slowly move
across rtes Thursday and Thursday night bringing periods of
heavy rainfall and sub-VFR conditions. An unsettled pattern
will prevail through the rest of the long term keeping periods
of showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Wed...High pres ridge will shift farther offshore
today, with light erly winds becoming serly and inc to 10-15 kt.
These winds will persist through tonight as well. Seas will
cont in the 2-3 ft range today, and inc tonight to 3-4 ft as
srly swell inc with approaching low pres. Inc srly winds and
waves on Thu as low pres rides north through ENC, with SCA
conditions becoming likely as winds inc to 15-25 kt and seas 6+
ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will track across
the waters Thursday night and pull away from the area Friday.
Increasing probs for a period of SCA conditions continuing across
the area Thursday night into Friday morning. A cold front
approaches the area Saturday and could see conditions approach
SCA conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front stalls across
the area Sunday bringing lighter winds and seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 AM Wed...A potential for heavy rainfall on Thursday as
weak low pres approaches and moves through ENC. This is on top
of parts of the region that have seen plenty of rainfall
already over the past 2 weeks. WPC currently has Eastern NC in a
day 2 Marginal (1/5) Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), although
if more models converge on amouts of 4-5" of rain for a larger
area of ENC, an upgrade may be necessary. Impacts depend on the
eventual track of the low and convective mesoscale details,
which will come in better focus over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...SK/TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL/CEB
MARINE...SK/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX