501
FXUS62 KMHX 011400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the area today, then shift
offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the north
through the weekend with the front stalled offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through today/...
As of 10 AM Fri...Only changes were to lower pops through first
part of the afternoon, and lower temps today. Bank of stratus
behind frontal boundary has worked into much of ENC and will
hinder temps today. Thinking seabreeze will get going acrs srn
portions of ENC, allowing for temps to rebound here into the
upper 80s, with mid 80s rest of the area. This will keep heat
indices around ~100 for most. With stable stratus layer, it will
take longer to destabilize, and pops have been lowered through
early part of the afternoon as a result. Still thinking best
chance of heavy showers and storms will be across the south as
the seabreeze activates with approaching shrtwave later today.

Prev disc...As of 730 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Monitoring the potential for flooding along and south of HWY
   70 through tonight

AM UPDATE: Convection from last night has now shifted offshore
to the south and east of ENC. However, the convection has laid
out a low- level convergence zone that stretches from Wilmington
east to out over the nearby coastal waters south of Cape
Lookout. Short term guidance has been struggling with the
convection that is currently ongoing along this convergence
zone, and it`s unclear how long it will last and whether or not
this zone will shift back north towards ENC or remain offshore.
It`s also unclear whether or not this will have an impact on
convective redevelopment later today associated with the
southward- advancing cold front (which has now reached northern
NC). For now, the forecast remains mostly unchanged, but some
near-term adjustments were made to reflect the latest radar and
satellite trends.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front, currently stretched west to
east across southern Virginia, will push south across central
and eastern NC during the day today. This front will interact
with a very moist and moderately unstable airmass characterized
by PWATS of 2.25"-2.40" and MUCAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg. In light
of this, the expectation is for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to develop along the southward- advancing
front. The depth and magnitude of moisture, plus increased
forcing and moderate instability, should support efficient
rainfall processes, with hourly rainfall rates of 1"+ expected
at times. The higher rainfall rates, alone, should be supportive
of some flooding impacts, especially for urban and poor
drainage areas. Additionally, easterly storm motions will be
parallel to the advancing front, and this may support areas of
training convection, especially if the front slows down as some
guidance suggests.

Short-term guidance differ on the timing of the front, and
whether or not low pressure develops along the front over land
or offshore. Should low pressure develop along the front over
land, this could lead to a slowing of the front for a time,
which potentially opens the door to a longer duration of heavy
rain for portions of the area. Conversely, if low pressure
develops along the front offshore, this would support a faster
frontal passage over land, followed by a slowing of the front
offshore.

Based on all of the above, the mean of all available guidance
suggests 1-3" of rain along and south of HWY 70. In the slower
front scenario, ensemble guidance suggests training convection
could support rainfall totals of 4-8" in some spots. While
guidance differs some on the placement of the heaviest rainfall,
the strongest signal for 3"+ is along and just inland of the
Crystal Coast (ie. Onslow, Carteret, southern Jones, and
southern Craven Counties). A Flood Watch was contemplated for
this area, but the spread in guidance regarding the placement of
heaviest rainfall lends itself to lower confidence, and we`ll
hold off for now.

It should be noted, though, that the combination of intense
rainfall rates plus the cumulative effect of higher rainfall
totals could support a few instances of flash flooding in
addition to the more minor urban and poor drainage flooding. The
best chance for flash flooding should tend to be focused where
the highest rainfall rates and amounts occur over urban areas
(Jacksonville, Morehead City, etc.).

Modest westerly flow aloft overtop the frontal zone may lead to
deep layer shear as high as 20-25kt, which could support some
thunderstorm organization and the potential for some stronger
wind gusts. While the overall risk of sever thunderstorms
appears low, a marginal damaging wind risk could materialize,
mainly south of HWY 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

A cold front is forecast to shift offshore this evening and
tonight as low pressure develops along it. If low pressure
develops offshore near the coast, there would be an extended
period of moderate to heavy rainfall along the coast, which
could prolong any ongoing flooding impacts. If the low develops
further offshore, the heavier rain would subsequently be
focused offshore. Regardless, somewhat cooler air will begin to
filter into the area behind the front as a northeasterly flow
regime becomes established. We`re not talking drastically
cooler, but upper 60s to mid 70s are expected for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0500 Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Some flooding concerns continue across Sern coastal zones
   through Saturday
 - Significantly cooler than past few weeks

Weekend...Once offshore, the SFC front will meander near the
coast through the weekend. Shortwave energy pushed offshore by
broad troughing aloft will support the development of a series
of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast, first
of which is expected Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday MaxTs staying in the low-80s and dewpoints
ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. Compared to this past
weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly
20 degree high temperature difference.

Higher chances of rain SAT than SUN with the front aloft
pushing through and cyclogenesis at the SFC leading to showers
and tstorms that could bring torrential downpours. Considering
rainfall over the last few days and potential for high rain
rates, some flooding potential exists, mostly along the Crystal
Coast SAT.

Next Week...Troughing aloft over central CONUS slowly inching
Eward through midweek with high pressure offshore. Front
remains to our S with further waves of low pressure developing
and traveling along it. Expecting N-NEerly SFC flow to persist
through much of the week with a mostly diurnal precip pattern.
Below climo Ts continue with a slight warming trend through the
week. Low 80s/upper 60s to low 70s early week becoming mid to
upper 80s/low to mid 70s lateweek.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/...
As of 730 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Brief period of LIFR/IFR conditions this morning

 - Increased risk of TSRA over the next 24 hours

 - Widespread IFR conditions possible tonight

Low CIGs (IFR/LIFR) this morning are expected to give way to an
increased risk of SHRA and TSRA through the day as a cold front
moves south through the area. Guidance continues to struggle
with how TSRA activity will evolve through tonight, and in light
of this, the 12z TAFs remain mostly unchanged compared to the
06z TAFs regarding the timing of TSRA impacts. Stay tuned for
potential amendments through tonight as we get a better handle
on when and where TSRA will impact the area. The one main change
was to add a PROB30 TSRA mention for KISO as confidence has
slightly increased regarding the potential today. Where TSRA
occur, there will be a risk of LIFR/IFR VIS and 30-50kt wind
gusts. Behind the cold front, north to northeast winds will
develop, becoming gusty along the coast. In the wake of the TSRA
activity, widespread IFR CIGs appear likely tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0530 Friday...

There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through
the long term, especially through the weekend when developing
low pressure travels along the stalled cold front to the S will
bring heavy rainfall to the area. Not a slam dunk for early
morning stratus and/or fog this weekend as winds could stay up
enough to mix things out, but can`t completely count out.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 0540 Friday...Prefrontal trough has pushed offshore,
turning 5-15kt winds more Nerly N of Hatt, SWerly to the S.
Seas 2-4 ft. Cold front will grad sink southward through the
waters Friday, with winds becoming northerly 10-15 kt behind it.

Sct to numerous showers and tstms expected through Friday,
bringing the threat for gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rain.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0545 Friday...

# --- Have issued Gale Watches for strong Nerly surge of winds
Saturday into Sunday. SCA conditions continue into early next
week regardless of Gales. Have also added Alligator and the
Neuse rivers to the slew of this weekend`s SCAs. --- #

A strong NEerly surge behind the front will increase winds to
20-30 kt on Saturday. HiRes guidance continues to suggest that
Gale force gusts are possible for coastal waters S of Oregon
Inlet and portions of Pamlico Sound Saturday into Sunday.
Sunday, NEerly winds will gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt.

Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from N to S early
Saturday morning into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday
afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters
with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern waters.

Highest PoPs will be Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning possible as low pressure develops and travels
NEward along the front situated to the S.

Winds and seas continue to lay down through early week with
generally NEerly 10-15kt flow in place.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB