138
FXUS62 KMHX 040705
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Backdoor cold front will cross eastern North Carolina this
morning, stalling south of the coast by tonight. There is a
chance for tropical development along this stalled boundary
later this weekend, which is expected to bring increased rain
chances into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key messages:

- Low chance (20%) of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms,
  primarily focused along the Highway 24 corridor.

Latest analysis depicts a closed low slowly progressing eastward
across eastern Quebec this morning while a highly amplified
ridge currently over the central Plains builds in behind it. A
secondary upper low sites off the southeastern coast, associated
with a weak wave of tropical low pressure off the coast of
Florida. At the surface, backdoor cold front is currently
dropping south out of northern Virginia while surface trough
lingers off the coast of North Carolina.

Weak shortwave rounding the upper low will nudge the backdoor
front into ENC this morning before stalling just south of the
coast by late this afternoon. Quite dry air for July will filter
in behind this boundary as PWATs fall below an inch, but along
the southern coast PWATs will remain at 1.5-1.75". The dry air
north of the boundary should inhibit any convective development,
but the enhanced convergence between the decaying front and
diurnal sea/sound breeze circulations may promote a stray shower
or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly along the Highway 24
corridor. Shear is exceptionally weak and do not expect any
severe risk with this activity.

Highs little changed from yesterday, in the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Any convective activity quickly diminishes with
loss of heating tonight, giving way to mainly clear skies to
start. More high cirrus encroaches from the south as weak
offshore low off the southeastern coast is expected to slowly
organize. Increased cloud cover, as well as a prevailing light
easterly wind overnight, should preclude a fog risk. Lows
variable, from the low to mid 70s along the coast to the upper
60s inland where dry air will remain entrenched.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Tropical or subtropical development off the southeast coast is
possible this weekend

 - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible through at
least mid-week depending on the behavior of the low

The long term forecast will be a busy one with unsettled
conditions lasting through the period thanks to potential
tropical development off the FL/GA coast.

Aloft, broad upper ridging will expand eastward across the
midwest. Farther to the south, a mid-level low will rotate over
the eastern Gulf, FL, and the waters off the southeast coast. At
the surface, a weak low will develop along the offshore stalled
frontal boundary that brought heavy rain to the area earlier
this week. This low is expected to develop near the FL/GA coast
and slowly move north toward the Carolinas on Sunday and linger
in the area through mid to late week. While this system is
expected to remain weak throughout its lifecycle, the
environmental conditions are conducive to support further
organization and potentially the development of a tropical or
subtropical depression later today or this weekend. NHC`s
forecast indicates a 50% chance of formation in the next 48
hours and a 60% chance in the next 7 days. The slow moving
nature of this system will present the opportunity for multiple
days of moderate to heavy rainfall. Depending on where the low
ultimately tracks, there could be a sharp precipitation gradient
between the northern and southern halves of our CWA on Saturday
with the latter having higher potential for greater rainfall.
This will become clearer over the next couple of days, but the
main hazard of concern for ENC will be heavy rainfall. WPC has
the entire CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Highly variable flight conditions this morning
as patchy fog, locally dense at times, has flitted in and out of
terminals since 06z. Transient high cirrus aloft is likely
preventing more prevailing vis issues this morning. Expect this
highly variable visibility regime to continue through this
morning, and covered all terminals with TEMPOs with otherwise
VFR expected to be the norm. HREF probabilities of visibilities
under 3 miles remains at 40-50%, but NBM probabilities fell to
10-20%.

Today, light northeasterly winds are expected with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon along the sea breeze and a
weak cold front. This could bring brief period of sub-VFR
conditions, with best chances primarily OAJ and EWN, but with
coverage expected to be very isolated opted to withhold any TSRA
mention for now.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 1:45 AM Friday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR
conditions through the period with multiple rounds of moderate
to heavy rainfall probable from a developing offshore low.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Regional observations show primarily westerly
winds of around 5 kt and seas 2-3 feet ahead of an approaching
weak backdoor cold front, expected to cross area waters from the
north later this morning through the afternoon hours. Winds
quickly veer northerly and then easterly behind this boundary,
reaching up to 10-15 kt at their peak, with a few gusts to 20 kt
possible. At the same time, easterly flow will increase further
especially across Onslow Bay as low pressure off the coast of
the Florida Peninsula slowly drifts northward.

For now, no headlines are needed for the short term period. Seas
will gradually build into the weekend, however, reaching 3-4
feet and up to 5 feet across outer portions of Onslow Bay by Sat
AM.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Marine conditions will start to deteriorate
late Saturday. 15 kt easterly winds on Saturday will veer to
the southeast on Sunday and increase to 15-20 kt. Winds will
continue veering to the southwest Monday and Tuesday.

During this period, a weak low will move along the SE coast,
and could acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. If
this occurs and it were to strengthen, stronger winds to
Gale/Tropical Storm force would be possible across the marine
waters as well as higher seas. Regardless of development,
hazardous seas may develop due to the long southerly fetch, and
Small Craft Advisories may be needed sometime early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC