878
FXUS62 KMHX 171423
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1023 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening. High
pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into early next
week. Another frontal boundary then impacts the area mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...An outflow boundary from decayed
convection to our west has made it nearly to the coast. Wind obs
have abruptly shifted from southwest to northwest and have
gusted to 20-30 mph over the past couple of hours. This boundary
will weaken as it continues pushing east and the wind field will
back to the southwest once again. Observed and model soundings
show a fairly stout dry layer in the lower and mid-levels of the
atmosphere, so seeing any of this remnant shower activity in our
area this morning doesn`t seem overly promising.

Previous Discussion...As of 700 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Severe weather risk appears to be low for today

In the wake of any morning thunderstorms or convective outflow,
it`s unclear whether or not sufficient destabilization can
occur this afternoon. Even if it does become sufficiently
unstable, questionable forcing in the wake of the morning
outflow calls into question whether thunderstorms can redevelop
this afternoon. Short term deterministic and machine learning
guidance generally reflect a reduced risk of thunderstorms and
severe weather, and the forecast will reflect this expectation.
However, very recently, some short term guidance has trended
back towards isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon. It appears this may be tied to a convectively-
enhanced MCV, currently moving east out of the TN Valley. This
scenario still currently appears unlikely, but is something that
we will continue to monitor through the afternoon. Should this
scenario play out, the shear/instability combo appears
supportive of at least some severe weather potential.

Widespread mid and high clouds today may tend to temper how hot
it gets, and it`s possible highs today won`t get as hot as
yesterday. Still, with highs near 90 and dewpoints in the upper
60s, the heat risk will be moderate, primarily impacting those
more sensitive to heat and/or those without effective cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Quiet weather expected tonight

A cold front will push east through ENC this evening, with
drier and slightly cooler air moving in behind it. This sets the
stage for lows ending up about 10 degrees cooler tonight than
last night. With a drier and more stable airmass moving in, no
thunderstorms are expected once the front clears the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0500 Saturday...MOSTLY quiet end of the weekend with
unsettled pattern beginning to unfold middle of upcoming week.

Sunday and Monday...Quiet and relatively cool compared to last
week with downsloping NWerly flow aloft between the departing
low and shortwave ridging briefly amplifying over SECONUS. The
front that pushed through Saturday will wiggle its way back
Nward over Crystal Coast, but there remains some question with
just how far N the front will make it. Mostly clear skies early
may provide enough destabilization to allow moisture convergence
along the front to lead to a low end SChc of showers SUN
afternoon and evening. Front will sink back Sward through the
SUN night.

Up to Midweek...The next low to impact the area stems from
digging trough aloft over central CONUS ultimately leading to
stout vertically stacked low traversing the Ohio River Valley
and approaching the NECONUS coast early week. Shortwave embedded
in the flow aloft leads to cyclogenesis along the meandering
boundary. This low will work up the SC and eventually NC coast
Tuesday through Wednesday, upping cloudiness and rain chances
again.

Late week...High pressure builds in at the SFC from the W while
low departs to the NE. Trough aloft lingers over NECONUS through
the end of the week preventing a completely dry forecast until
stronger ridging spills Eward toward the end of the longterm
period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 715 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - LLWS risk decreases this morning, but may briefly return
   this evening

 - Low confidence TSRA forecast over the next 12 hours

 - Gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon and evening

TSRA from last night have continued to weaken as they have
progressed east of the western NC mountains this morning. This
trend is expected to continue. However, an outflow boundary from
the weakening TSRA will likely impact KISO and KPGV over the
next 1-2 hours with a northwesterly wind shift and a bump up in
winds to 20- 25kt. It`s unclear how far south and east the
outflow will reach, so for now I`ve opted to only include TEMPO
groups at those terminals this morning. A background
southwesterly flow should then return across the area by late
morning or early afternoon. That southwesterly flow will be
gusty at times through around early this evening. A cold front
then moves through with more of a westerly wind expected
tonight.

The TSRA forecast remains a low confidence one through this
evening. Any TSRA activity this morning should be isolated in
nature. Later this afternoon, a few TSRA may manage to redevelop
if sufficient instability and lift can be realized. Guidance
remains mixed on this, and I`ll continue to keep TSRA out of the
TAFs due to the above-mentioned limitations.

Early this morning, there will continue to be a westerly LLWS
risk through about 13 or 14z. Another brief westerly LLWS risk
may develop along the cold front this evening as well.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 0430 Saturday...Front that crosses area Saturday night
stalls to our S Sunday and will meander for a few days until mid
week. Expecting mostly VFR flight cats through MON, low end
chance of showers SUN may bring subVFR. Better chances of subVFR
flight cats Tues and Wed as wave of low pressure traveling
along the front traverses the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Elevated winds and seas through this evening

 - Small Craft Advisory has been expanded

 - Thunderstorm risk appears to be decreasing

Outflow from weakening thunderstorms is expected to move
through the Albemarle Sound/Alligator River/Croatan and Roanoke
Sounds vicinity this morning with a northwesterly wind shift and
a bump up in winds to 20-25kt. Further south across the central
and southern waters, it`s unclear whether or not the outflow
will survive that far. This outflow will disrupt the gradient
for a short time this morning. However, the gradient is expected
to strengthen through the day as a cold front approaches from
the west. This is still expected to support a period of 15-25kt
southwesterly winds. Guidance has trended up some with winds
this afternoon, and we have reflected this in the forecast. In
light of this change, I`ve expanded the Small Craft Advisory to
include the Albemarle Sound and the Alligator River. Winds will
then become more westerly tonight in the wake of a cold front
moving through. The thunderstorm risk appears low through this
evening, but the risk isn`t zero.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 0445 Friday...

Late weekend through early week...Tonight`s front stalls to the
S of the FA where it will meander back N and S through early
week. Werly winds 10-15kt early SUN become SWerly 15-20kt in
afternoon as front lifts back Nward. Winds become Nerly late
Sun into early Mon as front sinks back Sward allowing weak high
pressure to briefly build in. NEerly winds Tuesday continuing
to veer to become Serly WED ahead of the next approaching low.
Conditions deteriorate as low approaches with SCA conditions
possible and increase in shower/tstorm chances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for May 17th, Saturday.

LOCATION      TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      95/1941  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 86/1991  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    95/1915  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 85/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       96/1941  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     135-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/OJC
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB
CLIMATE...MHX