838
FXUS62 KMHX 161824
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
224 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area this weekend. Hurricane
Erin is expected to pass well offshore, but significant coastal
impacts are expected next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sat...Latest analysis shows high pressure ridging
into the Carolinas with weak low pressure meandering off the NC
coast. Scattered showers blossoming across the southern 2/3 of
the area this afternoon. Meager instability and forcing will
keep thunder chances low through the day. Expect shower coverage
to diminish late this afternoon and early this evening, as
drier air filters in from north to south. Main wx concern
overnight will be the fog and low stratus potential, as NE flow
diminishes overnight and subsidence inversion sets up with
building sfc ridge. Areas of patchy dense fog will be possible
west of Hwy 17 early Sun morning. Lows will be seasonably warm
and humid, with readings in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and
low/mid 70s for the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sat...High pressure will remain in control, with
ridging aloft and weak low pressure offshore. Patchy fog and low
stratus should dissipate by mid morning, giving way to mostly
sunny skies. Subsidence and lack of forcing should keep the area
mostly dry. Low level thickness values and NE flow support
temps near climo, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the
beaches and upper 80s to near 90 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Sunday night through mid-week, high pressure keeps the area
   mostly dry.
 - Hurricane Erin, which is still forecast to remain offshore, will
   make its closest pass Wednesday/Thursday

Sunday night - Tuesday...Broad ridging over the eastern US will
remain the dominant feature through mid-week. A backdoor cold
front will sink south into the Mid-Atlantic at the beginning of
the week, but it`s forecast to remain well north of the area.
North/northeast flow will persist through the period, but
building heights and plenty of sunshine will send temps into the
mid-80s/low-90s. Diurnal seabreeze precip is possible each
afternoon, but chances are relatively low (<30%) through early
next week.

Wednesday - Saturday...Hurricane Erin is forecast to remain well
offshore, with ensemble members now more tightly clustered
around an OTS solution. Thus, the only impacts from Erin are
expected to be confined to marine and coastal interests - see
the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details. Pops steadily
increase Wednesday through the end of the week, peaking on
Friday at 30-50%, as a cold front is forecast to drop across the
mid- Atlantic. Behind the front, there is a signal for a brief
period of lower Tds falling into the 60s for some of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 220 PM Sat...Mix of VFR and MVFR across the terminals
this afternoon, as scattered showers blossom across the southern
2/3 of the area. Weak instability means thunder chances too low
to include in the forecast. Shower chances will dissipate
quickly late this afternoon and early evening. Expect another
round of low stratus and patchy fog overnight as sfc high builds
and leads to inc subsidence inversion overnight into Sun am.
All terminals could see periods of IFR and LIFR, with conditions
returning to VFR by mid Sun morning.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3:20 AM Saturday...High pressure will keep conditions
mostly dry through the period with a threat of fog and low
stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 220 PM Sat...High pressure will remain in control through
Sunday. Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. NE
winds will peak at 15-25 kt this evening and the first part of
tonight, strongest across the outer central waters, with weak
low pressure offshore. SCAs continue for the central waters this
eve through early Sun morning, with 25 kt gusts and 6 ft seas.
Brief period of 25 kt gusts will be possible across the eastern
Pamlico Sound but looks too marginal for SCA at this time. NE
winds 10-15 kt expected Sun with seas 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...The long term will start with N/NE
winds at 10-20 kt N/NE and 3-5 ft seas. Strong long period
swell from distant Hurricane Erin will start to bleed into our
waters with 6ft seas arriving as soon as late Monday morning.
SCA conditions are likely for all coastal waters through the
entire week with seas peaking late Wednesday/early Thursday at
15-17 ft at 15-16 seconds across the outer central waters. This
range is subject to change and will be highly dependent on
Erin`s exact track and intensity.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Sat...Strong long period swell associated with
distant but powerful TC Erin will occur simultaneously with
higher astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats
along the coast. Regardless of Erin`s final track, confidence
is high that conditions will be hazardous along our coast and
across our waters through late week.

- Life threatening rip currents are likely.

- Extensive beach erosion is likely due to strong long period
  swell.

- Coastal flooding is likely, especially around high tide.
  Impacts are expected to start as early as Tuesday, peak
  Wednesday/Thursday, and diminish late week. While all area
  beaches are expected to see some impacts, ESE to SE facing
  beaches are most likely to see the strongest swell and
  roughest surf zone conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CQD/OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX