655
FXUS62 KMHX 191843
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
243 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through mid next week.
A dry cold front will move through on Thursday followed by
another area of high pressure late next week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sat...High pressure will continue at the sfc and
aloft, as quiet weather prevails. Mostly clear skies and light
winds overnight will lead to strong radiational cooling, and
leaned towards the coolest guidance as it is often too warm in
these scenarios. Sct mid clouds over the Appalachians this
afternoon may push eastward overnight, but will likely have very
little impact on radiational cooling potential. No strong
signal in guidance indicating impactful fog but cannot rule out
patchy steam fog again across bodies of water. Expecting lows
inland in the low to mid 40s and 50s beaches due to flow off the
waters. Some isolated sheltered spots could again fall into the
upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sat...High pressure will remain in place at the sfc
and aloft, resulting in another beautiful/seasonable day across
eastern NC. Low level thickness values and NNE flow support
temps near to slightly below normal, with highs in the upper
60s/low 70s for the beaches and low/mid 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Ridging becomes centered over the Eastern
Seaboard this weekend and moves little into midweek next week
continuing to bring warming temperatures and continued dry
weather to ENC.

Sunday night through Wednesday...High pressure remains quasi-
stationary overhead all the way into mid week. At the surface
high pressure builds over the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic states
and moves little into midweek keeping things dry across ENC with
nerly flow continuing. Will note some offshore showers will be
possible mainly from Mon onwards as a weak coastal trough sets
up but not expecting any precip to move inland, and this
activity should remain over the Gulf Stream if it occurs at all.
Diurnal range will be large as ground temps cont to dry and a
dry atms persists, leading to warm days and cool nights. Low
level thicknesses around 1380M translate to highs 75-80 early
next week into mid week, which will be some 5+ degrees above
climo. Lows will be near climo.

Thursday through Friday...Next cold front is progged to move
through the region, though appears to be moisture-starved and
will move through on the dry side, with temps being knocked back
down to near normal for late Oct.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Pred VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period under mostly clear skies. Airmass is still too dry
for any impactful fog overnight and early Sun morning, but
cannot rule out patchy steam fog across bodies of water where
winds decouple (inland from the coast) as temps will be much
cooler than than the water. The best chance will be at PGV
overnight.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...VFR mostly SKC with a steady nerly breeze as
high pressure will be anchored to the west and north of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Latest obs show NNE winds 10-20 kt, gusting
20-25 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 5-10 ft (highest
north of Ocracoke). SCAs continue for the coastal waters through
the period. High pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and
strong low pressure well off the coast will continue to bring
gusty NNE winds and large seas through Sunday. Seas will subside
to 6-9 ft overnight and 5-8 ft Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Will have SCA`s for lingering high seas
through Monday across the coastal waters before winds finally
ease the beginning of next week as the pressure gradient relaxes
with high pressure building closer to ENC. Next cold front will
move through mainly dry on Thu but bring gusty north winds back
into the area, with a period of SCA winds and seas possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM Sat...The combination of persistent N-NErly winds
and King tides will continue to result in minor oceanside
coastal flooding issues, especially around the high tide through
Sunday morning. Had more reports of ocean overwash in Hatteras
Island this morning. Highest tide levels seen earlier this
morning, with tides gradually lower through early next week.
Overall expecting 1 to 2 ft for the oceanside, particularly
Hatteras Island where the combination of highest wave action of
8+ ft and long period swells leads to ocean overwash where dune
structures are compromised. The High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for areas north of Cape Hatteras due to these high
breaking waves.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203-205.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX