375
FXUS62 KMHX 200730
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin is forecast to pass offshore tonight into
Thursday with significant coastal impacts expected, especially
along the Outer Banks. High pressure builds in late week through
the weekend with mostly dry weather and seasonably warm
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
- Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Duck to Beaufort Inlet

- Storm Surge Warning in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout

- Low stratus and fog will persist across the coastal plain through
  early Wednesday morning

- Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
  through the day with highest chances along the coast and offshore

A weak surface low is located near the NC/VA border with a stalled
boundary draped across ENC while Hurricane Erin continues to move
northwest. Latest satellite imagery shows fog and low stratus
expanding across the CWA from NW to SE. The aforementioned boundary
is supporting widely scattered offshore showers, and this activity
is expected to continue through the rest of the overnight hours.
Later today, slight chance/chance PoPs will expand inland as the
seabreeze develops, but highest PoPs will remain along the immediate
coast and offshore. PWATs will be on the rise through the day,
exceeding 2" near the coast as tropical moisture from Hurricane Erin
overspreads the area. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will provide enough
instability to support a few rumbles of thunder, but a lack of deep
layer shear will keep the severe threat at a minimum.

Highs will max out in the mid- to upper-80s under mostly cloudy
skies and breezy northeasterly winds with gusts to 15-20 mph
(highest along the coast and Outer Banks).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2:40 AM Wednesday...The bulk of Hurricane Erin`s rain is
expected to remain offshore, but outer rainbands may reach the
eastern portions of the CWA starting tonight. Given ample tropical
moisture, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is
possible. WPC has outlined areas generally east of Highway 17 with a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Winds will back from NE to NNW
with gusts increasing to 15-25 mph across the coastal plain and 25-
50 mph along the coast (highest along the Outer Banks).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Duck to Beaufort Inlet

 - Storm Surge Warning in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout

 - Hurricane Erin, which is still forecast to remain offshore,
   will make its closest pass Wednesday night into Thursday,
   with significant coastal impacts expected.

Thursday...The center of Hurricane Erin is forecast to remain
offshore but make its closest pass to our coast Wed night
through Thu morning. This is when the highest impacts will be
felt across the coast, with tropical storm force winds and
coastal impacts (see TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
details). Tropical storm force gusts are possible across some
adjacent counties to the warning area, but still forecast to be
under sustained trop storm force. Outer rain bands may continue
across mainly the coastal counties through the morning, then
taper off as the center of Erin moves further offshore. Pops
cont in the 50-70% range east of Hwy 17, with 20-50% interior
zones.

Friday through Tuesday...Lingering coastal impacts will cont
into Fri as large back swell from departing Erin keeps high
waves above 10 ft on the OBX. Sensible weather impacts improve
as high builds in. Mainly dry wx and seasonably warm temps
expected as the high remains through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Currents obs are ranging from IFR/LIFR across
the coastal plain to VFR along the coast as low stratus continues to
overspread the area from NW to SE. This low stratus is expected to
further lower, resulting in widespread LIFR CIGs. The inner
coastal plain has the best chance at developing dense fog
tonight, but VIS reductions to at least MVFR remain possible for
all TAF sites. CIGs will be slow to recover after sunrise ahead
of another round of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight, Hurricane Erin will start
to pass by our coast offshore and brush our eastern zones with
outer rainbands. Heavy rainfall will be possible within these
outer bands, which could cause brief reductions in CIGs and VIS.
NE winds at 5-10 kt this morning will become N at 10-15G20 kt
across the coastal plain. Along the coast, NE winds at 10-15 kt
will become N at 25-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt by the end of
the period.

LONG TERM /Thu through Sun/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Gusty winds into Thu as Hurricane Erin makes
its closest approach to ENC, with gusts of 20-25kt possible for
the TAF sites along with sct showers, but tropical storm force
winds and heavier rain bands will be confined to the immediate
coast. Mainly dry weather late week through the weekend as high
pres builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3:15 AM Wednesday...

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters except the
Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers where SCAs remain.

Conditions will become increasingly treacherous through the
period as Hurricane Erin continues to move northwest.

Northeasterly winds will increase from 10-15 kt to 15-20 kt by
later this morning. Winds will continue to increase from south
to north through tonight, backing to the north as Hurricane Erin
passes offshore. Winds are forecast to peak late tonight/early
tomorrow morning at 20-40 kt with gusts to 40-50 kt. Seas will
continue to build too and peak late tonight/early tomorrow.
From now until early tomorrow morning, 6-9 ft seas at 14-15
seconds will increase to 15-25 ft at 15-16 seconds.

LONG TERM /Thu through Sun/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Extremely treacherous conditions cont into Thu
as Hurricane Erin makes her closest approach to ENC with a very
large wind field. This will bring extremely life threatening
marine conditions reaching their worst during this time, with
seas peaking 15-25 ft, and N to Nerly winds peaking in the 30-40
kt range, gusting to 35-50 kt. Winds diminish through the
afternoon Thu and esp Thu night, but very high waves cont into
the weekend as backswell from what will be a very large
hurricane Erin cont to propagate into the ENC coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages:

- Storm Surge Warnings, Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood
  Advisories and High Surf Advisories are in effect through as
  late as Friday night. Already beginning to see overwash on
  NC-12 on Hatteras Island. Worst conditions are expected late
  Wednesday through Thursday as Hurricane Erin makes it`s
  closest approach to ENC.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected all week and into
  the weekend.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but large and
powerful Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats.
Significant coastal flooding/ocean overwash/erosion is likely,
especially around the high tide cycles. Impacts will increase
through the day, with significant impacts expected beginning
with this evening`s high tide cycle, and continue through the
overnight hours tonight, through Thursday. While all area
beaches are expected to see impacts, E to SE facing beaches are
most likely to see the highest waves (10+ ft) and roughest surf
zone conditions. Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands are especially
vulnerable to even higher waves (15-20 ft) and are expected to
experience major coastal impacts, including portions of Highway
12 and secondary roads which may become impassable and/or
inaccessible in places through the end of the week.

Based on the current forecast track, moderate to major flooding
will mainly be focused along the oceanside of the Outer Banks,
with minor impacts for the Crystal Coast oceanfront.

Additionally, due to the expected large wind field with Erin
and the increase in north to northeast winds on Pamlico Sound,
minor soundside flooding on lower Pamlico Sound and it`s
adjacent tributaries are also possible due to winds exceeding
tropical storm strength. The flooding may continue into Friday
as well, and may need to be extended in later updates.

Minor flooding is also possible on the soundside for Hatteras
and Ocracoke islands on Thursday as the winds become northerly.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ047-196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/Tl
MARINE...OJC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX