958
FXUS62 KMHX 221501
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the
eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in
late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry
weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 10 AM Fri...No big changes to ongoing fcst. Have inc
cloud cover a bit as some bkn strato cu will develop and move
through. Temps may be a degree or so cooler as result, but a
brisk and cool day is on tap with temps more typical of mid Jan
than mid Nov.

Prev disc...As of 630 AM Friday...

 - Breezy and cold today

An unusually deep upper level low currently resides over the
Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow
over the Eastern U.S. A shortwave embedded within this flow
will dive south out of the Ohio Valley this morning, then cross
the Carolinas this afternoon. Beneath the upper low, a SFC low
will drop south from PA into NY, leading to a tightening
pressure gradient to the south across VA/NC. This combined with
deepening mixing through the day will support increasing
westerly winds from late-morning through the afternoon hours.
Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. Of note, the
latest hi-res guidance suggests the potential exists for some
areas to see 35-40+ mph gusts, especially from mid- afternoon
on. Along the OBX, wind gusts may flirt with advisory criteria
(ie. 45 mph), but confidence in impacts is low, therefore we`ll
hold off on any wind headlines for now.

Notably low thickness values plus continued CAA through the day
should make it hard to reach 50 degrees for most areas today.
Some of the coldest available guidance suggests upper 40s for
highs. Should this occur, this would be nearly 15-20 degrees
below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

 - Continued breezy and cold tonight

 - Lower risk of freezing temperatures tonight

In the wake of today`s shortwave, breezy conditions are
expected to continue for much of the night thanks to a continued
moderate pressure gradient. In light of this, it appears most
areas won`t decouple, which should help keep temps from getting
as low as they got this morning. Even the colder available
guidance suggests most areas will stay above freezing. Across
far SW sections of ENC, there may be a brief window of
opportunity for winds to decouple. Should this occur, there
would be a risk of temps falling into the 30-32 degree range
(mainly Duplin and inland Onslow Counties). Based on all of the
above, we`ll plan to forego any frost/freeze headlines tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

- Warming trend through Tuesday
- Multiple fronts mid to late next week

A deep upper level low currently centered over the northeast
will continue to move northeastward on Saturday. Across the
Carolinas, zonal flow will take over as the low moves offshore
and high pressure will begin to push north into the area. High
pressure will remain dominant until Tuesday when the next wave
is forecast to traverse the eastern U.S.

Saturday...The offshore transition of the upper low and
increasing thickness at the surface will allow temps to reach
values 5-10 degrees higher than today (upper 50s/low 60s). Gusty
winds will continue through the day, but there will be a
downward trend through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph
with 20+ mph gusts will persist through late afternoon. A lack
of cloud cover and light winds will allow for efficient
radiative cooling, so lows will be back down to the mid 30s
across the coastal plain (mid 40s beaches).

Sunday - Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft and building high pressure
at the surface will support a dry and gradually warmer forecast
for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Highs will
increase from the low to mid 60s on Sunday to upper 60s to low
70s on Tuesday. A front is forecast to cross ENC on Tuesday
afternoon, but guidance is not in agreement on how wet or dry
this system will be, so I opted to lean towards the drier
guidance at this time and capped PoPs at 20%.

Wednesday - Thursday...Wednesday looks mostly dry as of now as
high pressure will briefly resume. By Wednesday evening,
however, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC and linger
through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter and
supports widespread stratiform rain, but PoPs have been capped
at chance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

 - Gusty west winds today

 - LLWS impacts possible tonight (40-60% chance)

Light winds this morning will quickly increase by mid to late-
morning as daytime mixing increases, and as the gradient
tightens well to the south of low pressure spinning over the
Northern Mid- Atlantic States. Recent guidance hasn`t changed
much regarding the wind potential later this morning through
this evening, and is still showing a solid signal for 20-30kt
westerly wind gusts. Winds may begin to decrease some this
evening, especially across the coastal plain of ENC, which opens
the door to possible LLWS impacts. With this TAF issuance, I`ve
added a LLWS mention to KISO and KPGV where confidence is
highest. Through tonight, periods of SCT/BKN low to mid level
clouds are forecast to pivot southeast through the Carolinas.
However, at this time, any CIGs should be VFR.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions persist
through the period. Breezy westerly winds will continue Saturday
at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (higher along the coast). The
wind field will generally be SW at 5-10 kt through the remainder
of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

 - Gale Warning remains in effect this evening through Saturday
   morning

Northwesterly winds of 10-20kt this morning will become
westerly by this afternoon and increase to 15-25kt. By this
evening, the winds will further increase, with sustained winds
of 20-30kt expected. From late this afternoon through tonight,
frequent gusts of 30-40kt are expected, and a Gale Warning
remains in effect where confidence in 34kt+ gusts is the
highest. Of note, the mouth of the Neuse River may see
occasional gusts to 34kt, but guidance continues to suggest this
area will stay just below gales, and we`ve opted to keep that
area out of the Gale Warning.

Seas of 4-6 ft across the coastal waters this morning will
gradually build to 5-7 ft by this evening and into tonight. For
the outer reaches of the central and northern waters, seas of
7-8 ft will be possible.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...Marine conditions will gradually improve
on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect everywhere except the
inland rivers through Saturday morning. Winds will be decreasing
through the day, but SCA conditions will persist through
Saturday evening, lasting the longest for waters north of Cape
Hatteras. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, all
waters will be below SCA criteria. Winds will generally be 10-20
kt with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM Friday...

 - Dry and breezy conditions again today

Northwesterly winds this morning will become westerly through
the day today, and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-30
mph expected by this afternoon. Meanwhile, dry air continuing to
advect into ENC will help keep RHs in the 30s and 40s percent.
Because of the cold airmass in place, RHs shouldn`t get as low
as they otherwise could if it were just as dry, but warmer. In
light of this, significant fire concerns aren`t anticipated.
That said, if any fire does start, the breezy conditions will
make fire control difficult. Similar conditions are expected
again on Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for the Outer Banks of Dare county late this afternoon
through Sat afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal
flooding, inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside
areas favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village
(including areas in Roanoke Island).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ135-
     150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ135-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX