459
FXUS62 KMHX 212358
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
658 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts will cross the area tonight and Friday
and act to reinforce the cold, dry airmass which invaded early
Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in over the weekend
and into next week continuing the dry weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
- Freeze Warnings are in effect for the most of Eastern NC
  outside of the immediate coastline

As of 7 PM Thursday...Dry and colder weather will prevail
across eastern NC through Friday now that a mid level trough has
become established across the eastern CONUS. A secondary cold
front is forecast to sweep east across the region this evening.
This feature will be accompanied by some mid level clouds.

The main concern tonight is the likelihood of a brief period of
sub freezing temperatures inland from the coast. Dewpoints have
crashed and are very low, currently into the upper 20s lower
30s. If winds were to decouple, then it would be a slam dunk
that low temps would be at or below freezing over a large area
of eastern NC tonight. Confidence has increased that winds will
completely decouple for at least a couple hour period overnight
(especially in rural/sheltered areas) which will allow for
sufficient radiational cooling to occur to drop temps to around
32. If any cold sensitive plants are outside anywhere in
eastern NC (away from the beaches/coastline), take actions to
protect them for the cold.

Expect lows around 30 in the most sheltered locations, and low
30s elsewhere inland, with upper 30s to low 40s along the
coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Yet another reinforcing cold front is forecast to cross the area
late Fri. Nothing other than a few clouds expected with it. Once
the front crosses, West winds will increase late in the day.
After a chilly start, high temps will struggle to reach the low
50s but should get there aided by downslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

 - Breezy and cold Friday

 - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week

A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to
a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week
of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will
reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent
low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into
early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast
U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite
a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the
Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving.

Friday night- Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will
traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave
will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak
gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph
possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave
will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. By
Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow
temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep
lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid
level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop
Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is
<10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now.
Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk
of showers.

Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our
south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow
to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm
into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70
once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well.

Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is
forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow,
medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily
focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the
U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through
the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with
time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday,
followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving
Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more
significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second
camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period
compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days.
For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less
eventful scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Evening/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...VFR conditions with gusty westerly winds
are expected through the period. Some mid based clouds will
pass through this evening and again Fri afternoon. West winds
will become light overnight but then gust to around 20-25 kt
tomorrow afternoon.


LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

 - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday night into Saturday

A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday evening,
leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds into Saturday. During
this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. VFR conditions look
to prevail Saturday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...SCA`s are in effect for the near term
and Gale Warnings have been issued for Fri night into Sat.
Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the NC waters
through Fri. Westerly flow will continue across the waters
through Fri afternoon at 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as cold
advection prevails. Stronger cold advection will develop late
Fri and the result will be a period of Gale Force winds
developing by early evening. Seas of 3 ft (nearshore) to 6 ft
(offshore) are expected through Fri afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Thu...

 - Gale Warnings have been issued for portions of the ENC
   waters Friday evening into Saturday morning

A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday
night, leading to another surge of strong west to northwest
winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time,
guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale- force
gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have upgraded the coastal
waters and sounds to Gale Warnings. Winds will finally begin to
lay down by late in the weekend.

The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft
across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday.
Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible Friday. Inland min RH values will drop to 35-40% and
westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 310 PM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued
for Outer Banks Dare county late Fri afternoon through Sat
afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal flooding,
inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside areas
favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village (including
areas in Roanoke Island).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday
     for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-135-150-
     152-154-156-158-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-
     135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SGK
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/JME/SGK
MARINE...RM/JME
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX