607
FXUS62 KMHX 310623
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off
the NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure
builds into the area from the north, and will build closer to
the coast by early next week. Another area of low pressure may
pass over or offshore of the area by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Sun...A backdoor front continues to slowly sink
southwestward early this morning, entering the Cape Fear region
over land, but remaining just off the southern NC coast up to
Cape Hatteras. This front continues to produce scattered but
brief rain showers along it, while at the same time upper level
shortwave energy passing overhead has led to some light rain
falling out of mid and high level clouds along the coast and
offshore. For the rest of the night expect shower coverage to
decrease inland and focus mostly along the immediate coast and
Outer Banks. Low temps will range from the low 60s over the
inner coastal plain, where skies are mostly clear and winds
light, to the low 70s along the coast.

Today the area will be between strong high pressure building
south from the Mid-Atlantic and a developing low pressure system
well off the NC coast. This will result in breezy but mostly
dry conditions for ENC, though a stalled boundary just off the
coast will keep a threat for widely scattered showers (15-20%
chance) along coastal Downeast Carteret and along the southern
OBX. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to around 80
along the coast to the low 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Similar conditions are anticipated tonight
with low pressure a few hundred miles off the NC coast and high
pressure ridging south out of the Mid-Atlantic. A quiet night is
expected inland with skies mostly clear and very light NE
winds. While along the immediate coast there will be a continued
chance of isolated to scattered showers (15-30% chance) with a
weak boundary still right off the coast and a favorable
dynamical environment with the axis of the upper level trough
overhead. There will also be a significant spread in low
temperatures with inland areas seeing lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s, while temps remain in the lower 70s all night along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week

- Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week next week

- Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above
average.

Monday and Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard
with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving
little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off
to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes.
Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the
Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will
be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast
with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the
East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered
over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid-
Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the
coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any
precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends
have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the
north than previously modeled which could result in windier
conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected.

By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the
Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the
Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much
deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the
Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of
cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its
associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast
States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its
progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low
progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result
we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise
temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only
getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s
inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night.

Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder
of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength
and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later
next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on
Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen
while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a
deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then
forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have
slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more
offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on
Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result,
have the area precip free on Wed with  SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to
account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the
forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days.
Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and
Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front
pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in
from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard
time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs,
so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But
could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the
weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to
avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low
level thicknesses increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Predominately VFR conditions will continue into
Labor Day with high pressure over the area, while a stalled
front lingers offshore. Skies aside from areas of mid and high
clouds today, but there will be an increase in winds due to the
tightening pressure gradient and wind gusts 20-25 mph are
possible this afternoon. Winds subside tonight, and skies should
remain mostly clear leading to continued VFR conditions. Along
the immediate coast and OBX there may be some periods of sub-VFR
conditions as isolated to scattered showers move through the
area at times through tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC
through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity
along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will
be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around
mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system.
Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are
possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient
tightens between low pressure well to the east and high
pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue
onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages...

 - Small craft conditions to develop this morning across the
   coastal waters and most inland sounds and last through Labor
   Day

The pressure gradient will tighten today between high pressure
building in from the north and a developing low pressure system
a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. This will bring
increasing winds to the marine waters with Small Craft
conditions developing later this morning as winds increase to NE
15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. NNE winds will continue to
increase this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and
will continue at this strength for most of tonight. Across the
western sounds and inland rivers winds will mostly remain 10-20
kts with some gusts approaching 25 kts through tonight. Seas
will quickly increase to 3-5 ft later this morning, and will
then build to 5-7 ft late this afternoon through tonight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across
all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as
a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the
east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the
gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds
with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the
aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be
around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go
through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from
west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low
pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the
SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon
into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night
with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue
morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will
persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall
to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our
coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed
morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging
controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but
gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to
S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the
west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ131-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF