429
FXUS62 KMHX 020204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the east coast tonight into
Wednesday bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall on
Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the west through the
holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 2130 Tuesday...

Upper ridging and surface high pressure remained centered over
the western Atlantic near Bermuda while a mid level shortwave
and attendant cold front continues to inch toward the FA,
currently just W of NC. Initially, shower and thunderstorm
chances begin to increase late tonight as the front nears ENC.
Have also increased PoPs during the overnight area for offshore
waters as well as areas along the Crystal Coast where there is a
similar threat to last night for an overzealous offshore shower
or two making it over the coast. Typical summertime temps
overnight with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to
around 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2130 Tuesday...Upped QPF for WED afternoon given all the
parameters listed below.

Previous Disco as of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Approaching front will bring rain and thunderstorms on
   Wednesday, with heavy rain, localized flooding, and gusty
   winds possible.

A broad trough will move overhead Wednesday, with a cold front
slowly working its way across NC on Wednesday. Surface and
upper level support, ample moisture throughout the column (PWATs
> 2", which would exceed the 90th percentile climatological
value for this time of year), long skinny CAPE profiles, and
slow storm motions will set the table for heavy rain and
flooding concerns. Enough instability will be present for a few
stronger storms to develop during peak heating, but a lack of
deep layer shear should keep the severe threat to a minimum.
Guidance is in agreement on most of the area seeing at least
some rainfall, with 0.5-3" expected for most of ENC between
Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Locally higher amounts
are possible, especially for areas that encounter training cells
or stronger thunderstorms. Latest HREF and REFS guidance
depicts 6-hour PMM values of 3-5+" across isolated corridors,
with localized 3-hour HREF PMM values of 2-3". WPC has upgraded
portions of the CWA to a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on
Wednesday, with the rest of the forecast area in a Marginal
Risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

The front will cross the CWA late Wednesday/early Thursday and then
become stalled near the coast. This will prolong precip chances,
especially east of Highway 17, but coverage won`t be as vast given a
lack of upper level support and the entrainment of drier air aloft.
Moisture in the lower levels will still be plentiful, though,
and with PWATs remaining around 2", additional rounds of heavy
rain will be possible from stronger or training cells. The
stalled front will finally move on with its life late Thursday.

Surface high pressure will start to build back on Friday but a mid-
level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern
Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our
CWA. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more than a wind
shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend and
start of next week will host our typical summertime pattern
with daily seabreeze convection and highs around 90.

While not in agreement yet, global guidance continues to show
variations of a low developing along the remnants of the former
stalled boundary late this week/weekend. NHC has highlighted
the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the southeast US
coast for low pressure development, but the formation chance is
low (30% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1945 Tuesday...VFR flight cats expected through bulk of tonight,
however sub-VFR conditions are expected to develop WED morning
as showers and lower CIGs associated with an approaching cold
front overspread the area. Expecting predominantly MVFR CIGs
and VIS with the rain starting by midmorning. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to become more vigorous in the afternoon
with the potential to bring periods of torrential rainfall which
could lead to flooding concerns. Do not think widespread IFR is
likely WED but is certainly possible under stronger cells. Have
utilized PROB30s to try to time out the window for strongest
storms. Sub-VFR flight cats likely to continue after the end of
this TAF cycle, overnight WED into THU.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 2200 Tuesday...Flight cats improve through the day Thurs
with subVFR CIGs scouring out/lifting through the morning. Late
week will be more of a typical summertime pattern with greatest
chance for subVFR being afternoon showers and tstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - SCA conditions continue across the coastal waters through
   tomorrow.

Strong SW winds continue this afternoon, with Small Craft
conditions ongoing for all the coastal and inland waters. Winds
will peak later this afternoon at 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35
kts. Seas have built to 4-6 ft across the area, and will
remain around 4-7 ft through tomorrow.

SW winds will subside somewhat overnight to 15-20 kts with gusts
to 25 kts, and then increase marginally tomorrow as the thermal
gradient strengthens. Small craft conditions may linger into
tomorrow night before conditions improve.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night though Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Slowly improving conditions are expected
overnight into Thursday morning with winds becoming SW at 10-20
kts. By early Friday morning, winds will become northeasterly
around 10-15 kt and remain status quo until Saturday afternoon
when they become more easterly. Seas will be 3-5 ft through
Thursday, and then improve to 2-4 ft for the rest of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-136-
     137-230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/ZC
SHORT TERM...CEB/ZC
LONG TERM...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SGK