341
FXUS62 KMHX 222331
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
631 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the area through mid-week.
A cold front will cross the area later Thursday with
temperatures returning back to near normal behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Below normal temperatures continue through tonight

No significant changes needed to previous forecast for early eve
update. A 1033mb high, currently over SE Virginia, will shift
offshore by this evening, allowing a light return flow to
develop across ENC. Meanwhile, aloft a fast- moving shortwave
will cross the Carolinas this evening. Looking upstream, there
is quite a bit of cloudcover associated with the wave, and I
expect the same will hold true for the Carolinas tonight. This
will have a tendency to keep temps from falling as quickly as
they otherwise would. However, decreasing clouds are expected
after midnight as the shortwave shifts offshore. I expect lows
tonight won`t be as cold as last night. However, with decreasing
clouds and light winds, good radiational cooling conditions
should once again support below normal temps tonight.

Despite increased mid-upper level moisture with tonight`s
shortwave, I don`t expect any meaningful precipitation to occur
due to very dry low-levels. Light returns on radar moving
through central NC right now, but given the dry air and
observations appears to be mostly virga. That said, there is
potential for scattered flurries or sprinkles overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...Yet another fast-moving shortwave is
forecast to encroach on the Carolinas by Sunday night, preceded
by shortwave ridging during the day Sunday. At the SFC, a broad
area of high pressure will reside across the Southeast U.S.
Ridging aloft and at the surface suggests a continuation of
quiet, low-impact weather locally. By Sunday night, clouds will
begin to increase as the above-mentioned wave approaches from
the west. However, like tonight, the risk of meaningful
precipitation looks very low thanks to continued dry conditions
in the low-levels. Temperatures Sunday night should take another
step up compared to tonight thanks to a bit more wind and
increasing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Mainly dry weather expected through midweek
as high pres settles into the Deep South. This will bring a
warming trend, with above normal temperatures Mon through Wed.
Cold front passes with shower chances on Thursday, then temps
back to near climo behind it.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will settle into the
Deep South, while hts/thicknesses rise to anomalous levels. This
will be abnormally warm weather for ENC, with highs each day in
the 60s (55-60 for the immediate beachfront). Dry weather will
also persist with the high dominating. A weak coastal low is
expected to remain well offshore, though may spin a few clouds
into the OBX zones.

Thursday...A cold front is forecast to cross the area. This
will bring a chance for showers to the area but again most of
the guidance is indicating only light amounts of rainfall which
will do little to ease the drought conditions. Pops remain in
the 30-40% range Thu afternoon and evening. Highs will cont in
the 60s.

Friday...In the wake of the cold front, temps will cool back
down, but only to near climo readings, which for late Feb are in
the 55-62 degree range. Dry conditions will once again dominate
late week and into the weekend, building on the drought
conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with light winds. A fast-moving wave will cross the
Carolinas this evening, and will be accompanied by increasing
mid/high clouds for several hours, then clearing late.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Expecting mainly VFR through Wed with high
pres dominating. Winds will be light through mid week. A cold
front passes through on Thu bringing potential for TEMPO sub-
VFR, though widespread heavy rain does not appear likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday night/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Latest obs show variable winds 5-10 kt
with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure overhead will shift east
tonight, allowing a modest increase in south to southwest winds
of 5-15kt. Seas of 2-4ft will be common through tonight.

High pressure will generally remain in control through Sunday
night, with mostly light and variable winds. By Sunday night,
guidance suggests a weak cold front may try to move southwest
across the northern and central waters with a more dominant, but
still light, northeasterly wind. Low-impact seas will continue,
ranging from 2-3 ft for most coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Excellent boating conditions expected through
mid week as high pres will reside just south of the region,
bringing light swrly winds and seas in the 2-3 ft range.
Thursday, swrly winds may inc to SCA levels over the Gulf
Stream waters ahead of a cold front that will pass through Thu
night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/CQD/TL
MARINE...RM/CQD/TL