549
FXUS62 KMHX 232327
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering minor coastal flooding impacts will continue this
evening, especially along the Outer Banks. High pressure will
continue moving offshore as a weak low moves up the coast and
brings a threat of moderate to heavy rainfall along the coast
tonight through Sunday. A strong cold front will move through
early next week, bringing a noticeably cooler and drier airmass
and our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 715 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns along the coast
  tonight

- Minor coastal flooding concerns during high tide around 830PM
  Ocracoke to Duck

Only change on this update was to include SChc PoP`s across our
NW`rn coastal plain counties given current radar imagery as
isolated showers persist this evening. Otherwise the rest of the
forecast is on track.

Prev Disc...Generally quiet, pleasant weather today thanks to
easterly flow and a weak high pressure. There is a coastal
trough bringing scattered showers to Core banks and the Crystal
Coast, although with dry air overhead and limited instability
the thunder threat is low. High pressure will continue moving
offshore as a coastal low moves through the region tonight into
Sunday. See HYDROLOGY section on more details on the rainfall
impact from this coastal low. Weak nature of the low should keep
winds from becoming gusty.

Although the remnants of Erin will get progressively farther
away from our coast today, minor coastal flooding impacts may
continue for vulnerable locations due to elevated water levels
from large swells, higher than normal astronomical tides, and
compromised dune structures. (see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD
section for details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

- Heavy rain is possible early Sunday, generally east of
  Highway 17

Coastal low will be progressing northeastward through our
coastal waters early Sunday, before finally moving away in the
afternoon/evening. Heavy rain chances continue through Sunday
morning, shifting northward following the low as the day
progresses. Once the low passes through, rain chances quickly
decrease behind it. See HYDROLOGY section for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Below to well below normal temperatures mid-week

After this weekend, attention turns to a strong cold front which is
forecast to move through late Monday or Monday evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front. In fact, modest
shear of 20-30kt overlapping weak instability (MLCAPE of 500-
1000j/kg) may allow a strong thunderstorm, or two, to develop.
However, the risk of severe thunderstorms appears low due to a lack
of better lift and moisture.

This cold front will usher in a noticeably cooler airmass by mid-
week, with temperatures expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees below
normal. This will especially be noticeable at night as lows drop
into the 50s and 60s. The lowest temperatures are expected Wednesday
night, and it`s within the realm of possibility that a few record
lows could be in jeopardy for the typically colder inland locations.

Late in the week, guidance begins to significantly differ. Within
broad troughing across the ERN U.S., the potential exists for
another coastal low to develop near the coast of the Carolinas.
Should this occur, we could be looking at another round of heavy
rain and gusty winds for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 720 PM Saturday...Primarily VFR conditions are noted
across ENC this evening with isolated to widely scattered
showers noted across the area in association with a coastal
trough just off the coast. A coastal low will develop tonight
along the SC coast and track NE`wards along the NC coast and OBX
Sun morning and afternoon. Expect ceilings to quickly lower
over the next several hours with MVFR ceilings forecast across
the Crystal Coast by about 4-6Z with MVFR ceilings then
extending north and east through the overnight reaching the
inland terminals (ISO/PGV) by about 7-9Z. IFR ceilings remain
possible after 06Z tonight especially along the Crystal Coast
(EWN/OAJ terminals) and the southern OBX, and have included a
mention for IFR ceilings here. In addition to this, increasing
rain chances will overspread ENC primarily along the Crystal
Coast and OBX with rain becoming heavy at times especially near
Sun morning. This could bring IFR ceilings/vis especially along
the coast and in the heaviest showers. Low pressure eventually
pushes off to the north and east by Sun afternoon allowing for
VFR conditions to return from SW to NE. For now winds will
likely remain light from the east to northeast but if low
deepens more than currently forecast could see a few wind gusts
up near 20-25 kts along the OBX and surrounding waters.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday... A cold front then moves through late
Monday or Monday evening with a northwesterly wind shift and a
risk of SCT SHRA and TSRA. Much drier air moves in behind this
front, with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...

Easterly 10-15kt winds will become southeast later today and
tonight as an area of low pressure develops off the coast of
SC. As this low approaches the ENC waters, there should be an
increased risk of showers and thunderstorms bringing very heavy
rainfall tonight through Sunday afternoon. Seas of 4-8ft at
10-13s are expected to continue through tonight, slowly
decreasing through Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sun night through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

A modestly deep area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast
through the ENC coastal waters tonight-Sunday. While notably deep,
the risk of 25kt winds appears low (<10% chance). However, the low
will bring an increased risk of thunderstorms on Sunday, especially
for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Areas of enhanced
winds may accompany the thunderstorms, along with a risk of
waterspouts. Meanwhile, northeasterly long-period swell emanating
from the remnants of Erin will continue to impact the coastal
waters, especially north of Ocracoke Inlet. Additionally, Sunday`s
low may help to enhance the swell, adding a modest wind swell on top
of the long-period swell. This is expected to keep seas elevated
through the weekend (4-8ft at 10-12s). Because of this, Small Craft
Advisories will remain in effect through the weekend, with the
potential for elevated seas to last into early next week. After this
weekend, a strong cold front will move through late Monday or Monday
evening. Winds will briefly flip back to southwesterly ahead of the
front, then become northwesterly behind it.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low moves through the region tonight into Sunday.
PWATs are increasing to 2-2.5" ahead of and with the low, which
paired with ample forcing along the low passage and long, skinny
CAPE profiles, will support torrential downpours. Mean cloud
layer wind and corfidi upshear vectors support progressive
storms, but with the mean wind parallel to the axis of rainfall
I expect training storms to bring a swath of high rainfall
totals (2-4") with isolated amount of 6"+. The placement of the
axis of rainfall is likely going to be along downeast Carteret
Co up to the Outer Banks. However, a slight deviation to the
west for this low will result in the track shifting west. For
this reason, have issued a FLOOD WATCH for counties along and
east of hwy 17. The westward extent of the watch is due to
precautionary reasons, as there will be a sharp gradient in
precip totals and the exact location of the axis of precip will
not be realized until the event unfolds. On the other hand, in
the unlikely scenario where the low shifts east, the heaviest
rain may end up offshore, resulting in minimal precip totals
along our coast.

Heavy rain chances continue through Sunday morning, shifting
northward following the low as the day progresses. Some models
suggest a boundary forming to the east of the low that allows
rainfall to persist over NOBX Sunday afternoon. However, at this
point northerly flow with drier air should be present, and
heavy rain threat is not likely. Regardless, this will be a
possible scenario to watch out for, and if realized, could
result in higher than forecast rainfall totals for NOBX.

Areas along the Outer Banks impacted by the coastal flooding and
storm surge from the now distant Erin may be more susceptible
to flash flooding than normal, it is all dependent on the extent
of coastal flooding with this evening`s high tide and how
quickly the sandy soils along the coast can lose their
saturation.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM Saturday...

Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected to linger across
portions of the OBX over the next 12-24 hours as water levels
remain elevated, both due to lingering long period swell and an
astronomically higher tide cycle. Because of this, a Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect where the impact is expected to
be the greatest.

Of note, an area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast along
the coast later tonight through Sunday. While strong, impactful
winds are not likely, there may be enough of an enhancement to
the onshore flow north of Cape Hatteras to add to the ongoing
coastal flood impacts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for
     NCZ046-047-080-081-203>205.
     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday morning for
     NCZ092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for
     NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX