


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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415 FXUS62 KMHX 121433 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1033 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing low continues to push farther off the North Carolina Coast with a ridge of high pressure building in from the south and west. This ridge of high pressure remains in place into the weekend bringing fair weather and warming temps to the area into this weekend. The next potential frontal system impacts the area late this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Forecast remains largely on track. Adjusted temps/dewpoints to reflect current trends as temperatures have risen to the upper-50s/lower-60s by mid- morning across ENC. Previous Discussion: Temps in the 40s early this morning with light and variable winds and clear skies. Dry atmospheric profile precludes any impactful fog from forming. Strong inversion at low levels will rapidly break down this morning, and temps will quickly rise after sunrise once the inversion breaks down as model soundings show inversion temps of 65-70F this morning. Ridging nosing in from the SW through the morning, keeping skies clear and winds light. High pressure will remain over the area through today with zonal flow aloft, resulting in clear skies and southerly winds 5-15mph. Warm day in store, especially inland, with the potential to reach the low 80s in spots. Trended towards higher end of guidance for highs today by heavily blending in MOS guidance with increasing thicknesses and clear skies. Closer to the coast, the sea breeze will help keep temps a bit cooler, but it will still be very pleasant. As we get into the late afternoon/early evening hours, high pressure builds to our north, and what looks to be a weak back door cold front approaches NOBX, dropping temps a tad and shifting winds in the evening for NOBX. This weak, surface based boundary interacts with a strong baroclinic zone thanks to the Labrador current and at the same time there is weak vorticity advection at mid levels. This will result in weak cyclogenesis (minimal upper level support being the limiting factor) and a very weak, non-impactful sfc low may form up offshore of NOBX in the evening. Some high clouds move through in the late afternoon/early evening thanks to the weak upper level shortwave and vorticity advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Wednesday...Behind the back door cold front moving through NOBX, we could see some low stratus and/or fog. However, current indication is the bulk of the cloud cover will remain just north of NOBX. This means the CWA will likely be cloud free yet again tonight. Winds will be a tad bit stronger as the col we are currently under moves offshore, and a stronger pressure gradient moves overhead. This should keep us fog free through the night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wed...Quiet weather expected across eastern NC for the rest of the work week as high pressure becomes the dominant weather driver for the rest of the work week. A weak backdoor cold front briefly swings across the region on Friday with little fanfare, but attention remains on a stronger cold front expected to impact much of the eastern CONUS over the weekend, reaching our area to start next week. Fast moving shortwave moves across the area tomorrow. Moisture will be limited by the time the wave reaches eastern NC and expect only an increase in clouds, but would not be surprised to see showers developing along the offshore coastal trough which may threaten coastal locales. As weak low pressure develops off the Virginia coast, it will push a backdoor front across the region Friday morning. Overall moisture will be too lacking to support any showers but guidance does hint at a bank of low stratus filtering in behind the boundary, at least in the morning hours. Latest guidance now shows the front fully crossing the region and a temperature forecast more representative of northeasterly flow - mid to upper 70s inland but 50s and 60s along the Outer Banks. Upper ridging slides offshore Saturday as a strong upper trough and attendant frontal system pushes into the Tennessee River Valley. Timing differences still remain on when this front will cross eastern NC, although the most probable time remains late Sunday into Monday. Ensemble members continue to be in strong agreement in the presence of the front, although there is a split among all ensemble members on whether the front is more progressive and quickly moves offshore (favored by the deterministic GFS) or hangs up along the coast and a secondary low lifts along it, not clearing the area until late Monday (as depicted by the ECMWF). Regardless of system evolution, the risk remains for breezy conditions ahead of the front with the attendant risk of coastal flooding and rough surf. Shear with the system will be ample but instability will be dependent on whether the front moves through during peak heating. At least some severe risk in the form of damaging winds exists, and SPC carries a Day 6 risk area. Dry weather returns and prevails through mid week as high pressure builds into the area from the west. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thursday/... As of 7 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Today, we remain clear (except for some high clouds moving through in the afternoon/evening), and winds become 10-20mph out of the south in the afternoon during peak heating. Back door cold front moving through NOBX this afternoon and evening could bring some elevated LLWS concerns (30kt from SW at 2kft) with it, particularly for MQI and FFA in the evening/early night today. Another fog free night expected tonight as light winds struggle to become calm. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 405 AM Wed...Predominantly VFR conditions expected into Saturday as high pressure remains in control. Increase in clouds likely tomorrow and Friday ahead of an approaching mid-level wave but will remain safely at VFR levels. Backdoor cold front is forecast to push across all terminals Friday morning and may bring with it a risk of IFR low stratus and fog in the AM hours. Strong front approaches the terminals on Saturday and is forecast to cross on Sunday. Gusty south winds likely on Saturday, peaking on Sunday with gusts up to 30 kt at times. Potentially strong storms will accompany the front late Sunday, bringing a window of damaging wind gusts. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/... As of 7 AM Wednesday...As high pressure builds in from the west, expect winds to remain well below SCA criteria through this morning with seas gradually lowering. Waves currently 3-5 ft, remaining that way through the day, as high pressure continues to build into the area. There is a chance for a couple hours of 25kt wind gusts for the gulf stream waters off Hatteras Island tonight as pressure gradient tightens a bit. Elected to not go with a SCA for this considering the marginal, and short duration nature of the 25kt gusts. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 410 AM Wed...High moves offshore tomorrow bringing south to southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft. Conditions begin to deteriorate Saturday as a powerful cold front approaches the eastern seaboard. Small Craft conditions are likely to begin by Saturday afternoon with a risk Gales by Sunday morning, most likely over the offshore waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ/ZC SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...MS/RJ MARINE...MS/RJ