929
FXUS62 KMHX 292349
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
749 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue through mid week, with
isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening storms. A cold
front brings more widespread precipitation late this week, with
cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, though will
remain unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Tue...Pleasant weather conditions are present this
evening across ENC. Earlier convection has mostly dissipated,
and the widespread stabilization has kept additional
thunderstorm development at bay. Heat indices have dropped below
100 degrees as temps cool into the low to mid 80s.

Quiet conditions will continue tonight with high pressure over
the region. A stray shower can`t be ruled out over the immediate
southern NC coast, but overall expect dry conditions overnight.
Temps will cool into the mid to upper 70s by early tomorrow
morning. Patchy fog will likely develop by early tomorrow
morning with a moist boundary layer due to rainfall earlier this
afternoon. Fog may become dense towards sunrise, especially over
the coastal plain along and south of US 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 8 PM Tue...Little change to pattern, though upper ridge
begins to weaken slightly over the Carolinas. It will remain hot
and humid with highs climbing into the low/mid 90s inland
combined with dewpoints in the 70s. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for the southwestern portion of the forecast area (along
and south of US 264 excluding Hyde and Dare counties). Though
conditions will be somewhat marginal with peak heat indices of
105-107 expected, the cumulative effect of 5 days of dangerous
heat and humidity may be the biggest risk factor tomorrow. Expect
lesser convective coverage than past few days, with best
chances still focused across the southwest portions of the area
near deeper moisture and the seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

 - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late
week into the weekend

 - Heavy rain Thursday & Friday may pose a flooding risk

Thursday: This will be the transition point in the forecast. A 500
mb low will traverse northern Quebec and drag an embedded shortwave
trough across the eastern US. This will support the development of
surface troughing across the area and start the southeastward
movement of a cold front across the Appalachians. PoPs will increase
ahead of the front, but with it not expected to cross into the FA
until late Thursday/early Friday, temps will still be able to reach
the low-90s, resulting in heat indices in the 100-105 range again.

Thursday night-Sunday: The front will slowly move southeast across
the FA on Friday, dumping heavy rain along the way. High PWATs (2.25-
2.5") combined with long skinny CAPE profiles and slow storm motions
will raise concern for flooding across ENC. WPC has highlighted ENC
in their EROs for both Thursday and Friday with the entire area in
either a marginal risk (level 1/4) or slight risk (level 2/4) for
flash flooding. The front won`t clear the area until Saturday
morning but its proximity to the coast will sustain shower and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Northeast flow behind the
front will usher in cooler temps and lower dewpoints. Highs will
drop to the mid- to upper-80s on Friday and low- to mid-80s Saturday
and Sunday. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the
coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature
difference.

Monday: Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week as
upper ridging becomes slightly more amplified. Lingering coastal
troughing and the seabreeze will support slight chance to chance
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Evening/...
As of 8 PM Tue...VFR conditions are present currently across
ENC. Overnight, expect deteriorating conditions as fog and low
stratus develop due to excessive moisture in the boundary from
rainfall this afternoon. IFR and even LIFR conditions are likely
to develop by early tomorrow morning in the form of fog, stratus
or both. LIFR/IFR conditions then persist through sunrise, with
VFR conditions likely returning around 9 am. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow, with best chances
south of US 70.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...There will be several chances for sub-VFR
CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially Thursday through
the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Tue...Near perfect boating conditions continue
across the waters into Wed. Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-10 kt
with seas 1-2 ft. Flow becomes more SE-S overnight and Wed, with
seas remaining 1-2 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 2:10 AM Tuesday...Late Thursday and into Friday, a cold
front will move south across the area, veering winds to the
north and increasing to 15-20 kt. A northeasterly surge late
Friday and into Saturday will increase winds to 20-25 kt with
gusts to 25-30+ kt. The coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras,
the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds
have potential to reach gales Saturday afternoon.

1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by late
Thursday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north
to south Friday night into Saturday. Highest waves on Saturday will
be 6-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 3-6 ft to the south.

Highest PoPs will be from Friday afternoon-Saturday with
heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ044-079-
     080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD/SGK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC