Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
472 FXUS62 KMHX 110743 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 343 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers expected today as coastal trough and warm front lift through. More typical summertime weather regime returns from Tuesday onward with scattered afternoon showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages - Periods of heavy rainfall likely again today, which could lead to localized flooding. As of 220 AM Mon...Latest analysis shows weak warm front draped through the region, coastal trough just offshore, while sfc high ridges into the Carolinas from the NE. Morning low clouds and fog will slowly lift as next round of showers advances through ENC during the day. Similar to yday, expect widespread showers and iso thunderstorms, with long skinny CAPE profiles. With PWATS around 2.25" range, the heavy rain threat will be highest for coastal counties in the morning hours, then transition inland in the afternoon. Localized flooding possible. Below normal temps will continue with clouds and precip, with highs generally in the low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Mon...Front and trough will dissipate tonight as low level flow becomes more southerly across the area. Expect convection to diminish with loss of heating this evening, with best chances transitioning to the coastal waters and Gulf Stream overnight. Patchy inland fog and low stratus likely again overnight, with lows in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... Key Messages - Temps trend upwards through the week, peaking Thursday and Friday with heat indices 95-105F - Climatologically normal chances of precipitation return by mid-week. High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore Tuesday through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer pattern will develop as the offshore trough is kicked out to sea. More typical, isolated to scattered coverage precip chances expected from here as ridging and subsidence strengthen. Exception may be on Wednesday as a weak mid-level shortwave may support more expansive convection and Thursday as a weak front approaches the area. Temperatures return to around to slightly above average, and combined with increasing humidity peak heat indices hover around 100- 105 degrees Thursday. This weekend E/NE flow helps pin the sea breeze closer to the coast and ushers in a drier setup as high pressure dominates in the wake of Thursday`s front. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 220 AM Mon...Mix of VFR and LIFR conditions currently across the terminals. Area of low stratus and patchy fog developing north of Hwy 264 early this morning, near weak boundary. Low cigs and patchy fog likely to sink southward over the next few hours and could impact all terminals, with periods of IFR and LIFR likely. Another round of showers will spread through much of ENC through the day, with widespread sub-VFR ceilings expected to linger through much of the day. Precip likely to diminish this evening, though widespread sub-VFR likely to continue overnight. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 345 AM Monday...Isolated to scattered tstorm chances each day through the long term, with best chances of more robust coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. Threat of low stratus and some fog continues each morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 220 AM Mon...Latest obs show E-SE winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Winds light/variable (10 kt or less) today as coastal trough and warm front lift into the coastal waters and sounds. Winds become more southerly overnight. Another round of showers and iso storms expected today into tonight. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 345 AM Monday...More typical southwesterly winds by Tuesday onward as high pressure moves offshore. Winds through the period stay at 10-15 kt and seas will hold steady at around 2-3 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ