Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
247 FXUS62 KMHX 071857 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 257 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm conditions are expected through Wednesday. A cold front tracks across the region late Wednesday with scattered showers and breezy conditions. High pressure builds to the north behind the stalled cold front to end the work week, while a coastal storm forms off the coast this weekend. King Tides are expected through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tue...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the NE/Mid-Atlantic coasts, extending over the Carolinas with ridging aloft. Sfc high pressure will remain in control, gradually weakening over the area as front approaches from the west. Isolated light showers trying to migrate onshore this afternoon. Winds will continue to grad veer becoming SE. Increasing moisture could lead to isolated coastal showers. Very warm conditions are expected overnight as flow cont to veer around to the south and moisture inc in advance of a cold front, with lows 65-70 deg. Late tonight, a prefrontal trough will skirt the coast, and bring a better chance of showers along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tue...Upper ridge will break down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure pushes offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW. Scattered showers and isolated storms expected to develop ahead of the front Wednesday, with best chances in the afternoon and evening. Instability remains limited but strong forcing will likely be enough to support tstm development. Periods of occasionally moderate heavy rainfall possible, with a low flooding threat. Low level thickness values and SSW flow support above normal temps again, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Tuesday...Behind this cold front, high pressure builds in and strong pressure gradient sets up. This will result in gusty NE winds, highest over coastal zones. The gusty winds and higher seas paired with king tides would bring coastal flooding concerns. See Coastal Flooding section for more information. Front stalls offshore near the gulf stream after passing through Thursday. Upper level trough then moves through over the weekend, which will likely spin up a coastal low along this stalled front this weekend. Warm waters and lack of steering flow may allow the forecasted coastal low to sit over warm offshore waters and strengthen rapidly. Confidence is increasing in a coastal low forming, but strength, location, and impacts are still up in the air. See Coastal Flooding section for possible impact scenarios from this coastal low. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 PM Tue...VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon with sct to bkn cu. Isolated coastal showers possible this afternoon and overnight, with best chances east of the terminals. Patchy fog and low stratus will possible again tonight, esp srn coastal plain counties, though latest guidance has backed off quite a bit from previous runs. Sct showers and iso storms expected Wed afternoon and evening ahead a cold front. Showers could bring sub-VFR conditions. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 5 AM Tuesday...Cold front may bring scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Wednesday PM, temporarily lowering cigs and vis. Behind this front, gusty NE winds are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in. Friday into Saturday a coastal low is likely to develop off the SE coast, bringing gusty winds. Other impacts like cigs, and rain/tstorm chances depend on the location of the low, which is still uncertain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Tue...Latest obs show E-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain in control through Wed, with a cold front approaching late Wed. Winds will continue to grad veer tonight, becoming S-SW late tonight and Wed. Seas will generally be in the 2-4 ft range, with some 5 ft sets in the outer waters. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 230 AM Monday...Wednesday PM into early Thursday a cold front moves through, bringing chances of rain ahead of it, and gusty NE winds behind it as high pressure moves in. Current expectation is for NE gusts around 30-40 knots for most marine zones, and chances for seeing gale force gusts have been steadily trending up over the past couple days. Friday into Saturday, coastal low is expected to develop of the SE US coast. This will bring hazardous marine conditions thanks to very gusty winds and dangerous seas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Tue... King Tides and potential for strong NE flow mid to late next week: This week we enter a king tide cycle, with astronomically high tides. The highest tides are expected into Saturday (10/11), peaking Thursday. Accounting just for the king tides, minor coastal flooding is expected for typical vulnerable low lying locales. However, there is potential for strong NE wind gusts behind a cold front Thursday and Friday. This would help waves build along the coast, and may also help push some water towards the southern Pamlico Sound and Neuse river. Confidence is increasing on the strength of the winds, and the compounding effects of strong winds, higher seas, and king tides could cause greater impacts for areas with vulnerable dune structures along OBX Thursday and Friday. However, shorter wave periods Thursday and Friday may limit the power behind the waves. This weekend, a deep upper level trough moves through the eastern US, which will help spin up a coastal low offshore this weekend thanks to the baroclinicity on the edge of the warm Gulf Stream waters. While there is variation in strength, location, and impacts for ENC, at the very least this coastal low will bring elevated seas and winds. This, paired with higher than normal tides (although King Tides will have abated by then) could bring continuing coastal impacts (ocean and soundside) on top of any impacts mentioned Thursday-Friday. Of note, wave periods are expected to be higher this weekend, which would increase the power of the waves. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX