067
FXUS62 KMHX 261936
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
336 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the next several
days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance
for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical
summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next
frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
   afternoon and early evening

High pressure remains west over Tennessee with weak surface
troughing over western portions of North Carolina, but the ridge is
beginning to break down over eastern NC. Heat index values have been
between 100 and 105 degrees as temperatures remain in the lower 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 70s. Head Advisory remains in effect
until 8 PM with no extension needed. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
through 8 PM. While sufficient instability is in place with SB CAPE
values of 2000+ J/kg, very weak shear and little forcing and upper
level support will cause most areas to stay dry. Locations along
Highway 17 where the sea breeze develops have the best chances for
seeing scattered showers and storms. Given some dry air aloft, gusty
winds are possible in the heavier downpours, but any severe weather
will be isolated. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures
only dropping into the mid to upper 70s across the area. Fog and low
stratus is not expected but can`t be ruled out near sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Thu...

Surface high pressure centered off the coast will continue to weaken
on Friday. While instability will be in place, shear and moisture
will remain fairly limited yielding only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Sea breeze will be the most
likely catalyst for thunderstorm development beginning along the
coast and pushing inland later in the afternoon/evening. An upper
level ridge will also continue to weaken, causing high temperatures
to taper off to the mid to low 90s, with heat indices likely between
100-105F. As a result, holding off on a heat advisory for Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the
upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of
several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the
heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday,
as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week,
a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the
best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still
uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - TSRA and sub-VFR conditions possible this afternoon.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon but unstable
conditions prevail yielding some showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. These are expected to be isolated to widely scattered
in nature but they could bring a few gusty winds if near the
terminals. Otherwise expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts in
most locations. Overnight guidance is not particularly bullish
on fog or low stratus so have kept it out of the TAF at this
time although some early morning ground fog cannot be ruled out
with dewpoints remaining very elevated overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR
level patchy fog will be possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 210 PM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continue
through tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show
light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2
ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas
building to 2-3 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over
the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient
for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/JMW
SHORT TERM...RTE/ZAS
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RTE/CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ