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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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190 FXUS62 KMHX 211924 AAB AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 224 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest through Saturday bringing cold temperatures across the region. A warming trend is expected Sunday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 PM Fri...Arctic high pressure continues to build in from the west today with temps continuing well below normal despite mainly sunny skies. Highs are to be in the upper 30s to around 40. Tonight clear skies and calm winds will allow for great radiational cooling conditions. For most mainland NC locales, lows in the mid to upper teens are expected, 20s along the coast. Where a snowpack persists inland, radiational cooling will be amplified and temps in the low teens to near 10F are possible early morning tomorrow. There is some uncertainty with the lower end of the temperature spread, but all the ingredients are there for a substantial drop with the loss of daytime heating. A cold weather advisory has been issued for NW portions of the CWA where the snowpack persists, despite the larger than normal uncertainty. Areas with wet grounds due to snow melt could become slick tonight as temps drop well below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 1 PM Fri...Saturday high pressure will be moving through the CWA, resulting in light and variable winds, along with clear skies to start the day. In the late afternoon/evening hours, sky cover will be increasing as weak shortwave aloft moves through. While there will be some moisture at the 500-700mb levels, a very dry layer below 700mb will keep us dry as any precip evaporates before reaching the surface. Some hi-res guidance is trying to show precip along this shortwave, and we could see some higher reflectivities on radar tomorrow, but this has been ignored due to the dry sub- cloud layer. Highs tomorrow will be in the 40s for most, as much of the lingering snowpack is expected to melt. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM Friday...The models have been trending drier with their forecasts for eastern NC through mid to late next week indicating only minor amounts of precipitation at best through Friday. This is a concern because all of eastern NC is in a Moderate to Severe drought, Temps will be warming next week with highs in the 60s Mon-Thu. Saturday night-Sunday: Sprawling high pressure will be over much of the eastern US over the weekend producing dry conditions. The cold will hang on through Sat with lows inland Sat night in the mid to upper 20s. Temps will moderate on Sunday into the 50s. Early to late next week: High pressure will continue across the area for much of next week with temps forecast to be a little above normal in the 60s through Thu. This will continue the dry weather pattern. Early next week has continued to trend drier as a weak coastal low is expected to remain well offshore. A cold front is forecast to cross the area Thu night. This will bring a chance for showers to the area but again most of the guidance is indicating only very light amounts of rainfall which will do little to ease the drought conditions. Highs will be in the 60s through Thu, cooling into the 50s Fri behind the front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Saturday afternoon/... As of 130 PM Fri...VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Dry arctic high building in will preclude any fg/br threat. Nwrly breezes will cont at up to 10 kt today, then become calm by this evening as high pres settles overhead. Tomorrow, mid and upper level clouds will be streaming in from the west through the day while winds become light and variable. LONG TERM /Saturday evening through Wednesday/... As of 2 PM Friday...Expecting mainly VFR conditions Saturday evening- Tuesday as high pressure remains across the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... As of 2 PM Fri...Only SCAs remaining (for elevated seas) are along and north of Ocracoke as seas are slow to lessen. Shortly after midnight seas should be below 6 ft for all marine zones. With high pressure overhead, winds are light and variable tomorrow, resulting in pleasant boating conditions, although temps will still be below average. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 215 PM Friday...Good boating weather is expected through the weekend through early next week as high pressure continues over the waters. Winds become W-NW 10-15 kt early Sunday then diminish again to 10 kt or less Sunday afternoon. Mon will see light and variable winds become SW in the afternoon. Tue winds are forecast to be out of the SW 10-15 kt. Sat, 3-5 ft seas will subside to 2-4 ft, ten will be mainly 2-3 ft Sunday- Tue. && .CLIMATE... Record Low temps for 02/22 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 17/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Greenville 18/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 13/2015 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 10/2015 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 19/1959 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...JME/RJ AVIATION...JME/RJ MARINE...JME/RJ