Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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190
FXUS62 KMHX 211924 AAB
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
224 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest through
Saturday bringing cold temperatures across the region. A
warming trend is expected Sunday through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Fri...Arctic high pressure continues to build in
from the west today with temps continuing well below normal
despite mainly sunny skies. Highs are to be in the upper 30s to
around 40.

Tonight clear skies and calm winds will allow for great
radiational cooling conditions. For most mainland NC locales,
lows in the mid to upper teens are expected, 20s along the
coast. Where a snowpack persists inland, radiational cooling
will be amplified and temps in the low teens to near 10F are
possible early morning tomorrow. There is some uncertainty with
the lower end of the temperature spread, but all the ingredients
are there for a substantial drop with the loss of daytime
heating. A cold weather advisory has been issued for NW
portions of the CWA where the snowpack persists, despite the
larger than normal uncertainty. Areas with wet grounds due to
snow melt could become slick tonight as temps drop well below
freezing.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1 PM Fri...Saturday high pressure will be moving through
the CWA, resulting in light and variable winds, along with clear
skies to start the day. In the late afternoon/evening hours, sky
cover will be increasing as weak shortwave aloft moves through.
While there will be some moisture at the 500-700mb levels, a
very dry layer below 700mb will keep us dry as any precip
evaporates before reaching the surface. Some hi-res guidance is
trying to show precip along this shortwave, and we could see
some higher reflectivities on radar tomorrow, but this has been
ignored due to the dry sub- cloud layer. Highs tomorrow will be
in the 40s for most, as much of the lingering snowpack is
expected to melt.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...The models have been trending drier with
their forecasts for eastern NC through mid to late next week
indicating only minor amounts of precipitation at best through
Friday. This is a concern because all of eastern NC is in a
Moderate to Severe drought, Temps will be warming next week with
highs in the 60s Mon-Thu.

Saturday night-Sunday: Sprawling high pressure will be over
much of the eastern US over the weekend producing dry
conditions. The cold will hang on through Sat with lows inland
Sat night in the mid to upper 20s. Temps will moderate on Sunday
into the 50s.

Early to late next week: High pressure will continue across the
area for much of next week with temps forecast to be a little
above normal in the 60s through Thu. This will continue the dry
weather pattern. Early next week has continued to trend drier as
a weak coastal low is expected to remain well offshore. A cold
front is forecast to cross the area Thu night. This will bring a
chance for showers to the area but again most of the guidance
is indicating only very light amounts of rainfall which will do
little to ease the drought conditions. Highs will be in the 60s
through Thu, cooling into the 50s Fri behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday afternoon/...
As of 130 PM Fri...VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Dry arctic high
building in will preclude any fg/br threat. Nwrly breezes will
cont at up to 10 kt today, then become calm by this evening as
high pres settles overhead. Tomorrow, mid and upper level clouds
will be streaming in from the west through the day while winds
become light and variable.

LONG TERM /Saturday evening through Wednesday/...
As of 2 PM Friday...Expecting mainly VFR conditions Saturday
evening- Tuesday as high pressure remains across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Fri...Only SCAs remaining (for elevated seas) are
along and north of Ocracoke as seas are slow to lessen. Shortly
after midnight seas should be below 6 ft for all marine zones.
With high pressure overhead, winds are light and variable
tomorrow, resulting in pleasant boating conditions, although
temps will still be below average.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Good boating weather is expected through
the weekend through early next week as high pressure continues
over the waters. Winds become W-NW 10-15 kt early Sunday then
diminish again to 10 kt or less Sunday afternoon. Mon will see
light and variable winds become SW in the afternoon. Tue winds
are forecast to be out of the SW 10-15 kt. Sat, 3-5 ft seas will
subside to 2-4 ft, ten will be mainly 2-3 ft Sunday- Tue.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low temps for 02/22 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       17/1963  (KEWN ASOS)
Greenville       18/1968  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    13/2015  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          10/2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     19/1959  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152-
 154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...JME/RJ
AVIATION...JME/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ