824
FXUS62 KMHX 200732
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry backdoor cold front will sink south into the area this
afternoon and evening. The next notable cold front will linger
over or near the area midweek and keep light rain chances in the
forecast for a few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 2:30 AM Sunday...Easter Sunday will begin under high
pressure with breezy southwesterly winds. High temperatures will
be similar to Saturday with mid-80s expected across the coastal
plain and mid-70s along the coast. Later this afternoon and into
this evening, a backdoor cold front will sink south into ENC,
which will increase cloud cover, veer the winds to the east,
and noticeably drop temperatures north of Highway 264.
Subsidence aloft and an overall lack of moisture in the column
continues to support a dry forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...The backdoor cold front will push through
most of the CWA before stalling near the Crystal Coast late
tonight. South of wherever the boundary stalls is where moisture
will be the greatest and winds will be the lightest, opening the
door for potential fog development. Lows will dip to the
upper-50s to low-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Well above normal warmth this weekend and next week

 - Wavy frontal boundary may allow for a more unsettled period
   next week, especially late Tuesday-Wednesday

Synoptically, the surface and upper level pattern through next week
more resembles that of a mid to late summer setup, with weak flow
aloft and southwest Atlantic ridging dominating. However, it`s a
summer time pattern with early spring instability and moisture
(often lower than the summer).

As we move into next week, upper ridging is forecast to break
down/flatten some, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to
develop across the Mid- Atlantic region. Within this flow, a
weak frontal boundary is forecast to meander north and south
between North Carolina and Virginia. As is to be expected,
medium range guidance differs quite a bit on the placement of
this front on any given day next week. With the ridge breaking
down, temps aloft aren`t expected to be quite as warm, which
should support a weaker capping inversion. With continued low-
level moisture advection off the Atlantic, and a weaker cap,
there should be at least a modest increase in the chance of
showers and thunderstorms at points next week, with the risk
likely focused wherever the front resides on that particular
day. As mentioned above, we will have summer time deep layer
shear (15- 25kt), which doesn`t favor much of a severe weather
potential. Machine learning guidance also favors a lower risk of
severe weather next week. Given the ongoing drought conditions,
though, any moisture will be welcomed. While guidance differ on
where the front will be each day next week, the most solid
signal for convection appears to be in the late
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 0Z Monday/...
As of 3:10 AM Sunday...Predominantly VFR flight conditions are
expected through the period. High pressure will remain in
control to start the day, accompanied by 5-10 kt southwesterly
winds, diurnal cu, and increasing high clouds. Later this
afternoon and into this evening, a dry backdoor cold front will
sink south into the region and cause winds to gust to 15-20 kt
as they veer to the east. This boundary will overspread the area
with lower ceilings, potentially reaching MVFR levels by the
end of the period for terminals north of Highway 70. Along and
south of where the boundary stalls will have the best chance for
fog to develop given a localized pooling of moisture and
lighter winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - TSRA and sub-VFR risk likely to return next week

By next week, a wavy frontal boundary will meander north and
south between North Carolina and Virginia. In vicinity of this
front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR
conditions at times. The timing of the front, and when the
greatest impact to aviation will be, is less certain but still
appears to be mid next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 3:30 AM Sunday...Marine conditions have been improving
over the past several hours with all marine zones now headline
free. Winds will remain southwesterly through at least mid-
morning but will eventually veer to the east as a dry backdoor
cold front sinks south into the area this afternoon. An
easterly surge is expected with the FROPA, but winds should
remain sub-SCA criteria at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt. The
front will stall near the Crystal Coast, which will keep winds
easterly to the north of the boundary and southwesterly to the
south. Current 2-4 ft seas will decrease to 2-3 ft by this
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Wavy frontal boundary next week with less certainty regarding
   winds, waves, and thunderstorms

Aforementioned front meanders north to south each day next
week, making the wind forecast less certain on any given day.
The front will also carry a modest increase in the risk of
thunderstorms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winds and seas next week are somewhat certain and will be
dependent on where the front is each day, and how strong the
gradient is around it on any given day but generally looking at
wind speeds of 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft through Wed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC/JME/RJ
AVIATION...OJC/JME
MARINE...OJC/JME