015
FXUS62 KMHX 230618
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
118 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the area through mid-week.
A cold front will cross the area later Thursday with
temperatures returning back to near normal behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1 AM Sun...Skies have now cleared across Eastern NC, with
calm conditions present already, temps have plummeted into the
upper 20s to low 30s inland. Great radiational cooling
conditions will exist for the rest of the night, and expect lows
to the reach the low to mid 20s inland, and low 30s along the
coast by sunrise.

High pressure will continue over the area today, though in two
separate areas, one off the Atlantic coast, and the other over
the Southern Appalachians. In the middle of that, weak flow and
variable conditions will continue, and as the high to our west
moves closer, a weak backdoor front will move down the NE NC
coast in the afternoon. This will greatly effect temperatures
along the NOBX which will go from readings approaching 50 to the
low 40s, but have little impact elsewhere. High temps will
approach 60 across much of the southern coastal plain and even
towards the southern coast, with slightly cooler conditions
further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Sun...Another quiet night is expected with high
pressure over the southern Mid-Atlantic. Skies will be mostly
clear initially, but some increase in mid and high level clouds
is possible across the southern coast as upper level energy
passes to the south. Increased low level moisture behind a weak
backdoor cold front during the day will open up a threat for
some patchy fog as temps cool to the upper 20s to low 30s with
great radiational cooling conditions in place. Along the coast
temps stay in the upper 30s to around 40 through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Mainly dry weather expected through midweek
as high pres settles into the Deep South. This will bring a
warming trend, with above normal temperatures Mon through Wed.
Cold front passes with shower chances on Thursday, then temps
back to near climo behind it.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will settle into the
Deep South, while hts/thicknesses rise to anomalous levels. This
will be abnormally warm weather for ENC, with highs each day in
the 60s (55-60 for the immediate beachfront). Dry weather will
also persist with the high dominating. A weak coastal low is
expected to remain well offshore, though may spin a few clouds
into the OBX zones.

Thursday...A cold front is forecast to cross the area. This
will bring a chance for showers to the area but again most of
the guidance is indicating only light amounts of rainfall which
will do little to ease the drought conditions. Pops remain in
the 30-40% range Thu afternoon and evening. Highs will cont in
the 60s.

Friday...In the wake of the cold front, temps will cool back
down, but only to near climo readings, which for late Feb are in
the 55-62 degree range. Dry conditions will once again dominate
late week and into the weekend, building on the drought
conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday Morning/...
As of 1 AM Sun...VFR conditions will continue early this morning
and through today with dry high pressure over the region. Aside
from a few areas of high clouds it will be mostly clear with
very light winds. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will allow
for great radiational cooling conditions, and with low level
moisture increasing, there is a risk for some patchy MVFR level
fog to develop after midnight.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Expecting mainly VFR through Wed with high
pres dominating. Winds will be light through mid week. A cold
front passes through on Thu bringing potential for TEMPO sub-
VFR, though widespread heavy rain does not appear likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/...
As of 1 AM Sun...Great boating conditions will continue as weak
flow persists underneath an area of high pressure. Winds will
be W to NW this morning at 5-10 kts before a backdoor cold front
pushes in from the NC/VA border and turns winds around to the
NE at 5-10 kts behind it. The front looks to make it as far
south as Ocracoke Island, with SW sea breeze flow developing to
the south. Winds tonight will be light and variable due to
residual boundaries, but should eventually come around to the NE
at 5-10 kts by early tomorrow morning. Seas will be generally
1-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Excellent boating conditions expected through
mid week as high pres will reside just south of the region,
bringing light swrly winds and seas in the 2-3 ft range.
Thursday, swrly winds may inc to SCA levels over the Gulf
Stream waters ahead of a cold front that will pass through Thu
night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK