147
FXUS62 KMHX 070020
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
820 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern will remain in place over the next
several days as multiple fronts impact the Eastern Seaboard.
This will bring several chances for rain and strong to
severe thunderstorm activity into midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 830PM Fri...

This evening, a mid-level shortwave is approaching the area
from the west. At the surface, a thunderstorm complex/MCV is
associated with this mid level shortwave and currently pushing
across the NC/VA border. We will continue to monitor ongoing
thunderstorms as they approach the northwestern counties of the
forecast area. The general trend is for these storms to weaken
leaving some debris clouds over the area. This is forecast to
increase cloud cover late tonight, keeping lows mild near 70.
Given the latest guidance general thought is while we do see
increased cloud cover, shower chances will be minimal at best so
kept the area precip free tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 3:30 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening

The first day of an active pattern looks to set up on Saturday. In
the morning we may see some leftover debris cloud cover from a
thunderstorm complex well to the west but general expectation is for
skies to gradually clear through the morning hours as any
leftover thunderstorms weaken well to our west. As this occurs,
S`rly flow will set up, advecting in a warm and moist airmass
across the area. At the same time, previously mentioned mid
level shortwave continues to approach from the west with a
surface cold front/trough also approaching from the west. With
this warm and moist airmass in place as well as some insolation,
most Hi-Res and global guidance suggests MLCAPE values will
build to around 1500-2500 J/kg, while deep layer 0-6 km shear
increases to 30-35kts. With the shortwave/front and trough
producing ample lift, think shower and thunderstorms will
quickly develop to our west and track E`wards through the
afternoon with some of these storms becoming strong to severe in
nature. There is a low end chance at some thunderstorm activity
off the seabreeze but think the main show will come in from the
west. Hi-Res CAMs and global guidance suggest a mix of discrete
cells and linear clusters, with this activity potently merging
into larger thunderstorm clusters later Sat evening. Latest
soundings suggest DCAPE will maximize around 700-1100 J/kg as
well and with some inverted V soundings noted, thinking is
strongest storms will bring a threat for damaging wind gusts
(60+ mph), and hail. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe storms on Saturday with the wind threat
driving this slight risk. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and
the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well.
Ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity should be pushing across
the area through Sat evening. Main timing for the strongest
storms would be 3-9PM west of Hwy 17 and from 5PM Sat to 12AM
Sun along and east of Hwy 17. High temps get into the mid 80s
to low 90s.

The one caveat to the severe threat Sat would be if debris
clouds from the morning stick around longer than expected and
limit the amount of instability we see. However, this appears to
have a low chance (less than 20% chance) of occuring.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 PM Friday...


Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening.

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of the
long term.

A mid level shortwave approaches the area Sunday bringing a threat
of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some
strong to potentially severe storms late Sunday and Sunday evening
with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+
J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around
1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall
as well. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe storms Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.
Continued warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than
Saturday.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic
flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs
advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the
forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains
conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a
few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW
flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the
region with PW values around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th
percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall
each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early
to middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday morning/...
As of 830PM Fri... Expect light winds and VFR ceilings/vis
through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight. As we get
into Sat while skies and vis will remain VFR into Sat afternoon,
expect winds to become SW`rly at 5-10 kts with gusts up near
15kts by about midday. Thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area from the north on Saturday but their effect on TAF
sites is uncertain. For now have included a PROB30 in both the
PGV and KISO TAF sites but left out of the KEWN and KOAJ TAFs
for now.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through
much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...Boating conditions will remain benign
through tonight and then gradually deteriorate through the
afternoon on Saturday. Widespread 5-15 kts W to SW`rly winds and
3-5 ft seas are noted this afternoon and should change little
through Saturday morning. As we get into Sat afternoon a cold
front/surface trough will approach from the west and tighten the
pressure gradient allowing winds to become SW`rly across all
waters and increase to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts
at times. An increased thunderstorm threat will also occur Sat
afternoon and evening as well with locally enhanced winds and
seas possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday
but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW
winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with
strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the
diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front
approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the
gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RTE/SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF