077
FXUS62 KMHX 121602
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1102 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low and associated cold front will lift northeast away
from the area this morning. A warm front then lifts north across
the area this evening with a cold front sweeping across the area
on Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in from the north and
west on Friday before a much stronger cold front impacts the
region this weekend. High pressure then builds in behind the
departing front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Wed...Only minor changes to the forecast for the
morning update, mainly to capture PoP trends. Most widespread
precip continues across far NW zones with occasional light rain
and drizzle across much of the rest of the area. Guidance
showing mid level drying this afternoon and expect precip
chances to decrease, however, it will remain saturated in the
lower levels below 850mb keeping cloudy skies with occasional
drizzle possible. Temps late this morning remain in the upper
30s to mid 40s and don`t expect much warming through the
afternoon...potentially reaching the lower 40s to around 50,
warmest along the coast south of Hatteras.

Previous discussion...Rain continues across our northern zones
as well as the far western Coastal Plain with this activity
pushing north and east as it rides along a boundary of max 850
mb frontogenesis. Additional more scattered shower activity and
patchy fog are currently noted mainly along and south of Hwy 264
this morning as well. Any leftover fog should dissipate shortly
after daybreak with any reduction in visibility owing to
heavier precip.

Overall not much change in the forecast as a damp and dreary
day is expected once again for ENC as CAD remains firmly
entrenched across the region. In the upper levels, a firehose of
moisture coming from the Pacific continues to extend from SW to
NE across the Southeast this morning and will move little
throughout the day as SW`rly flow aloft persists. At the surface
deepening low pressure and its associated cold front will
continue off to the north and east as the day goes on. Yet
another 850 mb front will set up this morning along and north of
Hwy 264 increasing isentropic lift and allowing for stratiform
rain to once again develop given the ample moisture overhead.
Highest chances to see steady precip will be across our north
and western zones closest to the max isentropic lift where
likely to categorical PoP`s will be located. More scattered
activity is forecast closer to the Crystal Coast and southern
OBX where Chc to SChc PoP`s persist this morning. As we get into
the afternoon and evening surface warm front begins to lift
N`wards from GA/SC and approach southern portions of the CWA.
This will allow this mornings precip to also lift N`wards. Dry
air advection in the mid levels will become more prominent
towards the afternoon as well, which will further decrease PoPs
with even some dry time expected across the southern zones
NE`wards to the Crystal Coast and OBX south of Oregon Inlet.
Either way, with CAD still in place it will be a chilly, dreary
day, with highs generally in the 40s away from the Crystal Coast
and OBX as the incoming warm front may help these areas get a
little warmer this afternoon into the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wed...Warm front will lift north of ENC tonight
resulting in a relative lull in precipitation starting just
after sunset and continuing into the early morning hours on
Thurs as a mix of mid level dry air and little to no forcing
will persist. May still be a stray shower or two across the
area mainly along our NW`rn zones. In addition to this, guidance
continues to suggest widespread low clouds and even some fog
development tonight. Current expectation is for fog to develop
across the south and western zones by mid evening and quickly
overspread just about the entire area, potentially becoming
dense at times. This mix of low clouds and fog will then persist
into Thurs morning. As we get into the morning a cold front
will begin nearing ENC from the west which should once again
begin increasing precipitation chances starting just after about
4AM from west to east. With the warm front pushing north across
the area expect a non- diurnal temperature curve tonight with
temps starting out in the 40s to low 50s and getting to the 50s
to low 60s by daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Active pattern continues with multiple opportunities for
precipitation through next week

 - Watching the potential for a strong cold front passage with
multiple impacts this weekend

Thursday: Scattered, WAA-driven showers may be ongoing Thursday
morning in a pre-frontal airmass characterized by strong moisture
transport and anomalous moisture. By mid-afternoon, a cold front
will be encroaching on the area, and will eventually clear off the
coast by early evening. Guidance continues to show only modest
forcing with this front, and I expect this will tend to keep
rainfall amounts on the lower side, despite the presence of
anomalous moisture. Instability is expected to be lacking, which
also should keep rainfall rates/amounts lower. We`ll continue to
advertise an increased risk of showers along the front as it moves
through, but this appears to be a high PoP/low QPF type of scenario.
Strong WAA on Thursday should help boost temps above normal, despite
widespread cloudcover. Showers should quickly end from west to east
after sunset, with much cooler and drier air filtering in through
the night.

Friday: Cool and dry conditions are expected Friday and Friday night
as an anomalously strong SFC high builds in. Temperatures are
expected to be right around, or just below, normal. Of note, low 30s
appear likely inland Friday night thanks to decent radiational
cooling conditions. The one caveat is cloudcover. Guidance differs
on how quickly moisture will return Friday night, and subsequently
how quickly clouds begin to move back in. Given some uncertainties
with cloudcover, we`ll hold off on going any colder with lows for
now.

Saturday - Sunday: Medium range guidance remain in remarkably good
agreement with an upper level shortwave that is forecast to move
across the TN Valley and through the Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
Ahead of this system, an anomalously strong 50-70kt LLJ will support
strong warm/moist advection across the Southeast U.S., with PWATs
once again climbing above 1", and dewpoints rising into the 60s. Mid-
level lapse rates are forecast to be weak, which should keep
instability on the low side (ie. around 250 j/kg). However, this
front looks to have stronger forcing and upper level dynamics
compared to Thursday`s front, which should translate to higher
rainfall rates and amounts. This will especially be the case
where/if thunderstorms develop.

Regarding the convective potential, there appears to be two periods
to focus on. The first is Saturday night as elevated instability
develops within the strengthening WAA regime well ahead of the
advancing cold front. The second is along the front, itself, during
the day Sunday. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the
progression of the front, which increases the chance of the front
coming through during the typical diurnal peak in instability. The
kinematics with this system will be very strong, but the lack of
greater instability should keep the overall risk of severe weather
on the low side. We`ll continue to closely monitor this period as
any increase in instability would favor a bump up in the risk of
severe weather. Of note, even shallow convection could help mix down
some stronger wind gusts.

Speaking of winds, deterministic and ensemble guidance, as well as
various forecast aids, continue to depict a large footprint of
strong winds across the Southeast U.S. with this system, including
across ENC. We`ll continue to monitor this potential as it could
have at least minor impacts both inland and for coastal areas.

Monday - Wednesday: A much cooler, post-frontal airmass is forecast
to overspread the region next week. Initially, this airmass is
expected to be dry. However, by the middle of next week, a potent
southern stream system may impact much of the Southeast U.S. with
another round of strong winds and heavier precipitation. Whether or
not the cold air is still in place as this system moves in will play
a key role in whether or not any wintry precip can develop.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 640 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast as
ongoing CAD will result in IFR ceilings today as low clouds
remain firmly entrenched across the area. Ongoing stratiform
rain which is primarily located across our NW`rn zones and at
the ISO/PGV TAF sites could also reduce visibility at times
closer to 2-5 SM as well.

An upper level warm front will remain draped over the Mid-
Atlantic promoting isentropic lift and additional rain across
the area through the morning. As we get into the mid to late
morning hours, ongoing N`rly winds will veer a bit and become
NE`rly, remaining that way through the afternoon hours. As we
get into the evening, winds will veer even more, eventually
becoming southerly. As we get into tonight rain should become
more showery in nature as the aforementioned warm front lifts
north of the area, however low clouds will continue to persist
with even a widespread threat for some fog as well overnight.
The threat starts after 03Z tonight and all terminals now have
IFR ceilings and vis included in their TAFs for tonight. Dont
expect any improvement in the flight conditions through the
rest of the period. Finally, as we get into the evening hours,
we could see some LLWS around 30-40 kts at FL020 across all
terminals after 03Z with the approach of a surface cold front.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Active weather pattern to bring multiple rounds of RA, gusty
winds, and sub VFR conditions through this weekend

 - TSRA possible (10-20% chance) this weekend

A cold front will move through Thursday bringing an increased risk
of SHRA and sub VFR conditions. A period of BR/FG will be possible
ahead of the front Thursday morning. High pressure builds in with
improving conditions for aviation on Friday. This weekend, a potent
storm system is expected to bring widespread SHRA, a chance of TSRA,
gusty winds, and a risk of LLWS impacts. Widespread sub VFR
conditions are expected as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1045 AM Wed...Forecast in good shape with minimal edits to
grids. NE winds continue around 10-15 kt with seas around 5-8 ft
north and 3-5 ft south. Have allowed the SCA to expire for the
waters from Ocracoke to Cape Lookout but reissued beginning
late tonight as winds and seas build with the approaching front.

Previous discussion...Have ended SCA`s across our far southern
waters, Pamlico Sound and northern sounds/Alligator River this
morning as the surge of winds that had impacted them overnight
has ended. Maintained ongoing SCA`s across the central waters
and coastal waters north of Cape Lookout with these SCA`s
remaining in place through the period for the most part.
However, have already reintroduced SCA`s starting between 06Z to
09Z Thursday for the SW`rly surge of winds across our far
southern Coastal Waters and Pamlico Sound with these SCA`s going
through the rest of the period.

Generally seeing 5-15 kt N`rly winds with gusts up around 20kts at
time`s across all our waters with 6-8 ft seas noted across our
coastal; waters north of Cape Lookout to Duck. Generally expect
winds to remain between 5-15 kts today with seas lowering closer
to 4-6 ft across our coastal waters. As we get into tonight
warm front will lift N`wards across our area waters allowing for
winds to quickly shift to an E then S and finally a SW`rly
direction while increasing closer to 15-25 kts and gusts between
20-30 kts. Strongest winds will be noted along our coastal
waters, and Pamlico Sound where SCA`s will be noted while
elsewhere lighter SW`rly winds should preclude additional SCA
conditions from developing. Seas along our coastal waters will
once again be on the increase as well tonight going from 4-6 ft
this evening to 6-8 ft by Thurs morning. With the winds becoming
more SW`rly seafog will also be a threat across our waters
overnight. Seafog looks to develop near the Crystal Coast
overnight and spread NE`wards as the evening progresses.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Poor marine conditions expected through this weekend

 - A strong cold front will bring moderate to significant marine
impacts this weekend

A cold front will move through the ENC waters Thursday afternoon and
evening, and will be preceded by a period of moderate southerly
winds of 20-30kt. Seas will build to 6-9 ft during this time as
well. High pressure builds in on Friday, which should allow a brief
period of lower winds and seas. The break will be short-lived as a
much stronger cold front moves through this weekend. This front is
expected to be accompanied by a period of 25-35kt winds, with peak
gusts up to 40kt possible for some areas, especially the warmer
waters on the western fringes of the Gulf Stream. This will lead to
seas building to 8-12 ft. For the coastal waters from Cape Lookout
to Cape Hatteras, seas of 12-15ft will be possible. This front may
also be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms, especially Saturday
night into Sunday evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF/SK