736
FXUS62 KMHX 011138
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
738 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the east coast late today and
Wednesday bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds in from the west through the
holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices around 100-105F
   this afternoon

 - An approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
   thunderstorms, with the greatest chances west of Highway 17.

Upper ridging and sfc high pressure remained centered over the
western Atlantic near Bermuda while a mid level shortwave and
attendant cold front pushes east of the Mississippi River
Valley today. Very warm and moist SW flow will continue across
the region. See some spotty showers along and off the coast
early this morning which will continue into mid morning, then
will see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
along the sea breeze as it migrates inland throughout the
afternoon. Convective parameters not too dissimilar from
yesterday with SBCAPE peaking around 2000-2500 J/Kg with weak
shear around 10 kt or less, which will keep the severe threat
low, but could see some stronger storms produce wind gusts to
around 40 kt. Storm coverage could be a little better inland
late this afternoon with height falls aloft ahead of the
shortwave trough. In addition, pressure gradients will be a bit
tighter today between the approaching trough and high pressure
offshore and expect gusts around 25-30 mph late morning through
the afternoon. Another hot day with highs in the lower 90s
inland and mid 80s to around 90 along the coast and heat indices
peaking around 100-105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase overnight as a weak
   cold front slowly approaches the area

The upper trough and sfc cold front continue to slowly push
toward the area overnight. Initially, expect storm coverage to
wane through the evening with loss of surface heating, but then
will see showers and thunderstorm chances increase after
midnight with continued height falls aloft and improving upper
level support. Typical summertime temps overnight with lows in
the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:30 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Wednesday increases
   rain chances mid-week and could bring heavy rain, frequent
   lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical summertime
   pattern with sea breeze convection

A broad trough will move overhead Wednesday and offshore late week.
At the surface, a cold front will slowly work its way across NC on
Wednesday before becoming stalled along our coast Thursday. The
progression of this front has trended slower over the past 24 hours
with guidance now showing it not entering the western edge of
our CWA until late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Surface and
upper level support, ample moisture throughout the column (PWATs
> 2"), long skinny CAPE profiles, and slow storm motions will
set the table for heavy rain and flooding concerns. Enough
instability will be present for a few stronger storms to develop
during peak heating, but a lack of deep layer shear should keep
the severe threat to a minimum. Guidance is in agreement on
1-3" of rain across ENC between Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially for
areas that encounter training cells or stronger thunderstorms
with latest HREF LPMM showing pockets of 3-4". WPC continues to
highlight the entire CWA in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall on Wednesday.

The front will cross the CWA late Wednesday/early Thursday and then
become stalled near the coast. This will prolong precip chances,
especially east of Highway 17, but coverage won`t be as vast given a
lack of upper level support and the entrainment of drier air aloft.
Moisture in the lower levels will still be plentiful, though,
and with PWATs remaining around 2", additional rounds of heavy
rain will be possible from stronger or training cells. The
stalled front will finally move on with its life late Thursday.

Surface high pressure will start to build back on Friday but a mid-
level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern
Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our
CWA. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more than a wind
shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend and
start of next week will host our typical summertime pattern
with daily seabreeze convection and highs around 90.

While not in agreement yet, global guidance continues to show
variations of a low developing along the remnants of the former
stalled boundary late this week/weekend. NHC has highlighted
the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the southeast US
coast for low pressure development, but the formation chance is
low (20% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - SW winds will gust to around 25 kt this afternoon.

 - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
   could bring brief sub-VFR conditions and strong wind gusts
   this afternoon

Pred VFR conditions expected through tonight, however there
will be the opportunity for brief sub-VFR conditions at times.
We continue to see isolated showers along the coast south of
Oregon Inlet which has brought brief MVFR. Sub-VFR stratus has
stayed west of the area this morning but could see brief MVFR
cigs during the mid morning hours as LCLs increase. This
afternoon, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
to develop along the sea breeze and it migrates inland which
could bring brief MVFR-IFR conditions along with gusty winds to
around 40 kt. Precip chances wane this evening with loss of sfc
heating but then increase after midnight with the approach of an
upper trough and sfc cold front. Pressure gradients will also
be a bit tighter today and SW wind gusts will be around 20-25 kt
late this morning through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR flight
conditions Wednesday as a slow moving front brings chances for
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm
chances will persist through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - SCA conditions continue across the coastal waters through the
   short term.

Pressure gradients will continue to tighten today as a slow
moving cold front approaches the area. Currently seeing SW winds
around 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, especially south of
Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. Winds expected to increase
to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt late this morning and
continuing through much of tonight, then will begin to decrease
late tonight. Seas currently around 2-5 ft will build this
afternoon and peak around 4-7 ft this evening into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 3:45 AM Tuesday...Winds and seas will be improving at the
start of the period, but heavy rainfall will be likely through
Thursday morning. Southwest winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20+
kt will persist through Wednesday. Occasional gusts to 25 kt
will be possible across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
through the day Wednesday, but confidence is low in multiple
hours of 25 kt gusts after the current SCAs expire at 12z, so
they have not be extended at this time. Winds will become
lighter and more variable on Thursday as a cold front passes. By
Friday morning, winds will be northeasterly around 10-15 kt and
remain status quo until Saturday afternoon when they become
more easterly. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wednesday and improve to 2-4
ft by Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-150-
     152-154-156-158-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC