037
FXUS62 KMHX 031950
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
350 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have cancelled the High Surf Advisory for Hatteras Island with
seas continuing to subside.

Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory from Duck to Oregon
Inlet and have shortened expiration time for the waters south
of Ocracoke Inlet to 6 am Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradually improving conditions tonight into Thursday with a
coastal low off the coast.

2) Hotter conditions return this weekend with next chance of
precip early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure will continue to meander off the
coast into Thursday with high pressure building in from the NW.
Sct fair weather cumulus will quickly dissipate this evening
with loss of sfc heating with winds decoupling inland allowing
for good radiational cooling conditions and expect another
night with temps well below normal, but a few degrees warmer
than last night, with lows in the 50s inland to low 60s along
the coast. Some typically cooler locations may drop into the
upper 40s tonight.

Surf conditions are slowly improving across the Outer Banks and
have cancelled the High Surf Advisory for Hatteras Island as
breaking waves have dropped below 6 ft, however it will remain
hazardous in the surf zone with a high risk of rip currents and
large breaking waves this afternoon. A high rip current risk is
forecast for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras tomorrow as
well.

Continued dry with less wind on Thursday as high pressure
becomes centered over the area. The warming trend continues with
high climbing back to near normal in the mid 80s inland and mid
to upper 70s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As we get into Friday and this weekend, low
offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high
pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will
bring steady S-SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses,
and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s
inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more
summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance continues to
suggest a probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk to be
about 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday across portions of ENC, so
those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on
the forecast over the next few days. Next potential frontal
passage looks to occur early next week with typical longer range
timing and location uncertainty with this feature. THis could
bring our next best chance at some wetting rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. N to
NE winds will gust to around 20-25 kt this afternoon, then will
become light/calm tonight. Good radiational cooling conditions
tonight but the airmass will remain too dry for significant fog
development. However, cannot rule out patchy shallow fog, but
should have little to no impact to operations. N to NE winds
continue Thursday but won`t be as gusty, only to around 15 kt
during the afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will gradually push offshore by the end
of the week, with winds becoming S`rly by late Thursday and
into Friday. Winds will remain light into this weekend.
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period with high pressure in control of the ambient
weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away from the coast
tonight into Thursday as high pressure build in from the NW
bringing gradually improving conditions through the end of the
week. Currently seeing N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with gusts
to around 25 kt and seas around 4-7 ft across the nearshore
waters this afternoon while guidance showing 6-10 ft seas
across the 20-60 nm zones. N to NE winds will diminish to around
5-15 kt late tonight into Thursday morning, then will back to E
to SE late afternoon. Seas will subside to 3-6 ft near shore
water by Thursday morning with 5-9 ft seas across the outer
zones, then to 2-5 ft nearshore and 4-7 ft across the outer
zones Thursday night.

Have cancelled the SCA north of Oregon Inlet. the SCA continues
through tonight for the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet and
Thursday evening for the central waters.

Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in
the week and through this weekend with south to southwesterly
flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening
associated with thermal gradients.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF