414
FXUS62 KMHX 051837
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather for the majority of the
CWA through Saturday, although a stalled boundary offshore will
bring a low-end chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the coast tomorrow. A cold front will move through the area
Saturday night, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances to the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in late
this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Friday...The upper low will continue to churn over
southern Canada today with broad troughing extending across the
eastern US. This low will move to the north a little, which will
allow heights to increase over the Carolinas. At the surface,
offshore high pressure is extending west over the area. Although
the mid and upper levels will remain fairly dry today,
southwest flow in the low levels will reinstate some moisture
into the column. The increasing heights aloft, mostly sunny
skies outside of some diurnal cu, and an increase in moisture
will work together to create a warm and muggy summer-like day
across ENC with high temps in the low-90s across the coastal
plain and mid-80s along the coast. The seabreeze may be able to
squeeze out a few isolated showers this afternoon/evening, but a
lack of moisture above the surface should keep them shallow and
short-lived at best.

Tonight will be mild with lows hovering a couple of degrees either
side of 70. The bigger story tonight/early tomorrow morning
will be the potential for fog and low stratus, which has trended
more pessimistic today. Fog and low stratus will be possible
across the CWA but most likely across the inner coastal plain
and southwestern zones where areas of dense fog may develop
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1:25 PM Friday...Fog and low stratus may linger a couple
of hours past sunrise tomorrow morning with greatest cloud cover
hanging on near the coast.

Tomorrow will be the transition point in the forecast when conditions
start to become slightly more unsettled. The upper low will
continue to move north, allowing heights to increase across the
area again. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area
from the west while a weak offshore low will ride northeast
along a stalled boundary roughly parallel to the southeast
coast. Low level moisture will be increasing, so cloud cover
will be greater than we`ve had over the past several days
(greatest along the coast). The cold front isn`t forecast to
enter our western counties until tomorrow night, but the stalled
boundary offshore may support a few scattered showers with an
isolated rumble of thunder along the immediate coast in the
morning. Precip chances along the coast will continue into the
afternoon and evening given additional forcing from the
seabreeze, but the coastal plain is expected to remain dry.

Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low-90s
across the coastal plain and mid-80s at the beaches. Given the
increase in moisture, however, it`ll feel slightly more humid.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into next week

The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps
to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night.
High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next
week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into next
week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along it) and
potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE flow,
more clouds than sun and increased shower chances...with best
chances along the coast. Best chances for scattered showers and
storms will be Sunday afternoon and evening. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Another front will approach the area late week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 1:45 PM Friday...Confidence is high for VFR conditions to
continue for the rest of the daylight hours. There`s potential
(<10%) for some shallow short-lived showers to develop along
the seabreeze this afternoon, but the rest of the area will only
see diurnal cu.

With the lower levels becoming more saturated, there`s a much
better signal for fog and low stratus to develop early tomorrow
morning across the coastal plain. As for fog, probabilistic
guidance has trended later for the onset and more pessimistic in
terms of coverage and density. OAJ has the best chance at seeing
the densest fog, but all terminals are expected to drop to at
least MVFR VIS by 08/09z. Fog may become dense at times with
conditions expected to bottom out between 9-12z. The 18z TAFs
have 2-3 SM VIS for all TAF sites, but there`s potential for
this to trend more pessimistic with future updates. As for low
stratus, scattered 300-500 ft clouds should move in shortly
after midnight.

Conditions should improve back to VFR by around 13z and remain
so through the rest of the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...A cold front will move through Saturday
night and early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop
behind the front Sat night and Sunday, potentially lingering
into early next week. Scattered showers and storms expected
Sunday afternoon and eve.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 2:15 PM Friday...SSW winds around 10 kt will become
variable early tomorrow morning but return to SWerly by the
afternoon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft through tomorrow afternoon
and build to 2-4 ft by tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...

Key Messages:

- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week

The front will move through the waters Saturday night and early
Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday
10-15 kt, increasing to 15-25 kt Mon and Tue. Seas will remain
at 2-4 ft this weekend, building to 4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD