494
FXUS62 KMHX 050554
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
154 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly slides farther offshore today with
seasonable and dry conditions continuing. Low pressure will
approach the area tonight and slowly move across ENC Thursday
into Thursday night bringing the potential for heavy rainfall
across the region. The low will pull away from the area Friday
with a cold front moving through ENC this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 2230 Wednesday...High pressure continues to shift
offshore away from the coast with a broad area of weak low
pressure off the GA/SC coast, slowly lifting north closer to
Eastern NC through the overnight period. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will approach Duplin and Onslow counties in the early
morning hours before sunrise. Light SEerly winds continue ahead
of the approaching low, but sheltered spots may briefly decouple
at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible Thursday
  into Thursday night

Weak low pressure is forecast to lift towards the area Thu and
track across ENC Thu night, which will bring numerous moderate
to heavy showers with a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms. Rain
will increase in coverage for the swrn zones first, quickly
spreading n and e through the rest of ENC during the morning
into afternoon hours Thursday.

Periods of heavy rain will be the main threat with this low, as
PW`s surge above 2". See HYDROLOGY section for information on
rainfall totals and flash flooding potential. Low level
helicity ramps up as well Thursday evening due to backed low
level winds. Very limited instability is present however, so no
more than chance thunder is expected at this time. If
instability creeps upwards from their current forecast values of
around 500 J/KG, a tornado threat may be present during the
afternoon and evening hours Thursday ahead of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long
   term.

 - Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

Guidance coming into better agreement with the low pressure area
moving offshore Friday morning and accelerating away from the
area Friday afternoon and night. Heaviest precip is progged to
be off the coast but scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible across the region Friday. Temps
will be a few degrees below normal with N to NW flow behind the
departing low.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and
0-6k wind shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around the
90th percentile and the thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling
across the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the
warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland
and mid to upper 80s along the coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical
moisture feed into the region with PW values around
1.75-2" most days,which is above the 90th percentile for this
time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day.
Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1:40 AM Thursday...Flight conditions will be deteriorating
over the next couple of hours as low clouds stream into the area
ahead of a low pressure system. This system will bring
widespread heavy rain throughout the day with this afternoon
bringing the greatest chances for embedded thunderstorms.
Thinking remains the same that prevailing MVFR CIGS will be most
likely with bounces back and forth to IFR, especially when
under heavier showers and thunderstorms. Although PoPs will
begin to decrease at the end of the TAF period, chances for
prevailing IFR CIGs will increase. Southeast winds will be light
overnight and increase to around 10 kt. Toward the end of the
day, winds will veer to the south.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will slowly move
across rtes Thursday and Thursday night bringing periods of
heavy rainfall and sub-VFR conditions. An unsettled pattern will
prevail through the rest of the long term keeping periods of
showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 1700 Wednesday...Issued SCAs for Sern and Central waters
starting tomorrow afternoon.

Previous disco...4 PM Wednesday...SE winds 10-15 kt
this afternoon as weak low forms to our south. These winds will
persist through tonight. Seas will cont in the 2-3 ft range
today, and inc tonight to 3-4 ft as srly swell inc with
approaching low pres. Inc srly winds and waves through the day
Thursday as low pres rides north through ENC, with SCA
conditions becoming likely in the afternoon/evening hours for
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds inc to 15-25 kt
and seas 6+ ft.


LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will track across
the waters Thursday night and pull away from the area Friday.
Increasing probs for a period of SCA conditions continuing
across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. A cold front
approaches the area Saturday and could see conditions approach
SCA conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front stalls across
the area Sunday bringing lighter winds and seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 500 PM Wed...A potential for heavy rainfall on Thursday
as weak low pres approaches and moves through ENC. This is on
top of parts of the region that have seen plenty of rainfall
already over the past 2 weeks. Near record PWATs paired with the
slow moving low is fcst to drop 1-3" of rainfall over much of
the region, with a reasonable worst case scenario being
localized maximums of 6-8". WPC currently outlooks the entire
eastern half of NC in a day 2 Marginal (1/5) risk of excessive
rainfall with a Slight (2/5) risk bullseye centered over the
Crystal Coast . Impacts depend on the convective mesoscale
details as banding precipitation and training of storms will
play a big role in the precip distribution. General rainfall
totals (not including any training or banding) are expected to
be less for NOBX and surrounding areas (0.5-1"), and highest
along and south of hwy 70 and western Pamlico Sound (2-3")

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/CEB/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX