Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
248 FXUS62 KMHX 170700 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Updated 17/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through today with a warming trend back to above climo late in the work week. 2) Occasional periods of unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through today and most of Friday. Gradually warming and slowly increasing dewpoints today as weak synoptic flow allows for late day seabreeze/onshore flow to develop. One more night in the 60s for tonight before TD`s surge more on Friday as high pressure weakens and slides further offshore allowing low level flow to veer to sswrly ahead of an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is progged to move in late Friday and Friday night. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms acrs nrn half of the FA, with best chances N of Hwy 264 Friday afternoon into evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat, though pops remain in the 30-50% range as above climo PW`s will be in place along with wavy frontal boundary residing acrs the sern CONUS. Temps rise to above climo once again Fri into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR mainly SKC through the TAF pd. Model short range ens guidance supports a low risk (10-30% chance) of reduced VIS due to MIFG, and have included several hours of IFR BR for both KEWN and KPGV. For today, the winds will begin to become southeasterly, or onshore, but remain generally around 5 kt or less. Outlook (Tonight through Mon): High pressure cont to dominate with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area as early as Fri with chances for showers and perhaps a storm, which will cont the threat for some unsettled weather into the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... Light nerly breezes cont less than 10 kt this AM as high pres builds. The winds will gradually veer serly, or onshore, this afternoon, becoming sswrly overnight tonight into Friday. Seas will remain on the low side, generally 2-3 ft nearshore, with 4 ft sets offshore. Outlook (Friday through Monday): A cold front drops into the nrn waters on Fri, bringing winds around back to the northeast again for nrn sounds and waters N of Oregon Inlet. The front slides southward through Friday night with nerly winds expected to inc a bit into the 10-20 kt range for all waters and sounds by Sat. Winds and seas should remain below SCA however through the weekend. Sunday winds veer to srly by late day, then become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CQD/TL AVIATION...TL MARINE...CQD/TL