025
FXUS62 KMHX 310830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves through tonight. High pressure then
rebuilds over the area Saturday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Today will be a beautiful end to the
month of January with unseasonable high temperatures well into
the mid 70s across the coastal plain. Record highs are in the
upper 70s to around 80 for most interior locales, and could get
close for some. No such luck for the coastal areas, as the past
cold wave has left area water temperatures only in the 40s to
around 50. A strong onshore breeze will keep temps much cooler,
only in the low/mid 60s here. Strong southwesterly flow will
pump in ample moisture, which will more than double the dew
points for the coastal plain from what they are today (mid-20s
today, near 60 today). This increase in temperatures and dew
points will be thanks to a warm front lifting north across the
area with a strong cold front approaching from the TN/OH Valley.
The region will be entrenched in the warm sector, so dry
conditions expected. Winds will be quite gusty, with a well-
mixed bndry layer and strong llj dynamics leading to sfc
transport of these wind gusts. NBM probs for wind gusts up to 30
mph are quite high, 50-75% across the interior zones, and have
bumped up wind gusts to 25-27 kt inland. Near the coast, strong
marine inversion will be in place with the cold waters, so wind
gusts are lower for the nearshore areas as well as Pamlico sound
and nrn OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Fri...The aforementioned cold front will move
through ENC late tonight. Ahead of it, strong gradient remains
in place, and in fact, llj sharpens and inc to 60+ kt in the
850-925mb layer. While sfc heating abates with the loss of solar
insolation, good bdry layer mixing still in place, and gusty
gradient winds to 30 mph or higher will remain. the strongly
forced front with layer streamlines off the GOM will bring a
period of heavy rain showers to the area ahead of the fropa, and
categorical pops remain in place. While no instability, and
thus no thunder is expected, momentum transfer with heavier
showers will bring brief gusts over 40-45 mph. Rain and wind
abate quickly from w to e late tonight as the front races
offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Fri...Mostly dry and seasonable this weekend, with
temperatures warming next week.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front will be well offshore by
sunrise Sat, and therefore a dry fcst will continue for most of
the weekend with high pressure building in. Will continue a
very low chance for a lingering coastal shower early Sat, with
precip chances ending quickly. On Sunday a weak coastal trough
may move close enough to the coast to produce isolated coastal
showers late Sunday into Sunday night. Since most of the
guidance remains dry, will continue to leave mention of
precipitation out of the forecast for now. Temps a few degrees
cooler this weekend with post frontal N-NE winds. Highs Sat and
Sun in the 50s to low 60s inland and 50s for the Outer Banks.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure remains anchored over
the SE Monday, with nearly zonal flow aloft. The high will
weaken Tuesday as a weak boundary is expected to push through.
A stronger front will approach the area mid to late week, with
precip chances increasing. Will continue the sc pop mention mid
to late week. Above normal temps expected through the period
with highs mainly in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 AM Fri...Warm front lifting through is bringing a deck
of clouds to ENC, though cigs in the VFR range. Sct/bkn 3.5k ft
deck will lift to mid and high clouds during the day today as
warm front moves north of ENC. LLWS is in place early this
morning as strong southwesterly flow aloft will support a 35-40
kt LLJ over inland terminals with the wind shear threat ending
around 12/13Z this morning as daytime heating commences.
The tradeoff will be gusty winds today as strong heating will be
in place. Sswrly wind gusts over 25 kt are expected today,
lasting into this evening ahead of a strong cold front
approaching. A period of mod to heavy rain showers will move
through ENC after around 4Z, moving quickly off the coast by
10Z. With the rain, reductions in vsby and cigs to IFR are
possible.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Fri...Sub-VFR cigs possible Sunday with coastal
troughing offshore. Otherwise, expect pred VFR conditions
through the period with high pressure in control.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Gradient is inc early this morning ahead of
approaching cold front to the west. The gradient will be
strongest over the Gulf Stream as good mixing occurs with the
warmer waters. For the nearshore and sounds, strong marine
inversion will be in place today with the warming airmass over
the cold waters. Based fcst heavily on CMCreg, which initializes
area water temps correctly. Low end SCA conditions will develop
by afternoon for the waters/sounds/rivers with gusts aoa 25 kt
expected. Strong daytime heating inland will bring locally
stronger gusts possible to the land/water interface esp for the
inland rivers, Alligator River, and wrn Albemarle sound. THe
gradient inc further overnight, and solid gales are expected for
the coastal waters sound of Oregon Inlet with gusts of 40 kt
or higher expected. Elsewhere, the SCA will cont with gusts of
25-30 kt. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
outer warmer waters esp south of C Hatteras late tonight. Seas
will peak in the 8-10 ft range for the Gulf waters overnight.
Winds quickly abate late tonight as the strong cold front sweeps
offshore.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Fri...A secondary front will cross the waters Sat
resulting N winds increasing to 15-25 kt and elevated seas 4-7
ft. SCAs likely to continue through late evening. High pressure
will build over the waters Sunday into early next week with
better marine conditions. N-NE winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-5 ft
Sun. Flow veers around becoming SW 5-15 kt Mon with seas 2-4 ft.
A weak boundary may push through the waters Tuesday with flow
becoming W-N 5-15 kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures will be possible today.

Record High temps for 01/31 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        81/1950  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   71/1975  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      79/1927  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   73/1950  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         80/2002  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    79/1975  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST
     Saturday night for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...TL/CQD
MARINE...TL/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX