548
FXUS62 KMHX 020714
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the east coast tonight into
Wednesday bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall on
Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the west through the
holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 300 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Approaching front will bring rain and thunderstorms today,
   with heavy rain, localized flooding, and gusty winds
   possible.

Latest analysis shows broad troughing sitting over the eastern
CONUS this morning with a shortwave trough pivoting around this
feature towards the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. At the surface,
slow moving frontal boundary is draped along the northeast coast
south across the Appalachians. A deep plume of Gulf moisture,
already exceeding 2" PWAT per SPC mesoanalysis, is streaming
ahead of this boundary.

Surface and upper level support, ample moisture throughout the
column (PWATs > 2-2.25", nearly 2 sigma above average for early
July), long skinny CAPE profiles, and slow storm motions will
set the table for heavy rain and flooding concerns. Enough
instability will be present for a few stronger storms to develop
during peak heating, but a lack of deep layer shear should keep
the severe threat to a minimum. 00z CAMS have backed off
slightly on total precip amounts but still streaks of 1-2"
across much of ENC, with some potential for amounts exceeding 4".
These higher amounts are most likely in the strongest storms and
wherever training cells may set up. Latest HREF guidance
depicts 6-hour PMM values of 3-5" across isolated corridors,
with localized 3-hour HREF PMM values of 2-3". WPC has kept
portions of the CWA in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
today, with the rest of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk.
Given the likely isolated nature of flooding and modest
downtrend of QPF, opted to hold off on a Flood Watch this
morning. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wed...Iso shower and thunderstorm activity will
likely be ongoing at sunset, especially along the front as it
trudges across the forecast area, but coverage of convective
activity diminishes quickly with lack of heating. As rain comes
to an end, low stratus and potentially fog is likely to develop
behind the frontal boundary. Highest odds of this are along and
west of I-95, but if the front moves faster than forecast the
inner coastal plain (Martin County southwestward) could be
plagued by low visibilities to start the Thursday commute. Lows
little changed from the past several evenings, in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - A stalled front will continue heavy rainfall chances Thursday

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

Aloft, a broad trough will move offshore late week with ridging
pushing in behind it. At the surface, a cold front will become
stalled near our coast Thursday with high pressure building in
across the eastern US through the weekend.

Guidance has the slow moving front entering the western edge of the
CWA early Thursday morning and then stalling near the coast through
the day. Precip coverage is expected to be less on Thursday for two
reasons. First, the broad upper trough will be pushing offshore
Thursday, so upper level support won`t be as great as Wednesday.
Second, there will be entrainment of drier air aloft. However, with
ample moisture still in place in the low and mid levels (PWATs
around 2"), additional rounds of heavy rain will be possible from
stronger and/or training cells. The best chance for higher precip
totals will generally be east of Highway 17 in proximity to the
stalled front.

Once this boundary finally gets on its way late Thursday, a mid-
level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern
Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our CWA
early Friday. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more than a
wind shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend will
host our typical summertime pattern with daily seabreeze convection
and highs around 90. A low may develop near the Gulf Stream waters
along the remnants of the stalled front this weekend. Guidance
differs on where this low may meander, but its proximity to ENC will
introduce higher PoPs on Monday.

Speaking of this same stalled front, ensemble and deterministic
guidance continue to come into better agreement on tropical
development farther south late this week/weekend. NHC has
highlighted the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the
southeast US coast for low pressure development with a 40% chance of
formation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thu/...
As of 305 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across terminals this
morning as ENC sits between spotty offshore convection and a
band of showers and spotty convection west of I-95. Odds of
sub-VFR cigs steadily increase after 12z as slow moving cold
front, in tandem with anomalously high moisture, encroaches from
the west. MVFR cigs and vis expected to start by 14-15z, with
thunderstorm activity developing after 17-18z. Periods of
torrential rainfall are likely in strongest storms with the
potential for visibilities to quickly drop to under a mile, in
addition to flooding concerns. Some stronger storms may also
pose a risk of gusty winds up to 35-40 kt at times. Maintained
use of PROB30s to depict most likely period of heavy rainfall.

Brief return to VFR possible around sunset, but reliable
guidance is aggressive in depicting a post-frontal low stratus
deck developing across the central portions of NC and bleeding
eastward as the front sags east. Given light winds at the
surface, some fog is also possible. Most likely terminals to see
these restrictions are PGV-ISO, mainly after 06z.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 2:30 AM Wednesday...Periods of sub- VFR flight conditions
are possible on Thursday as a stalled front brings chances for
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances will persist through the rest of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - SCA conditions continue across the coastal waters through
   late this afternoon.

SW winds slowly easing this morning, with Small Craft
conditions cancelled for the inland rivers and likely to follow
suit shortly for the northern sounds. SW winds will continue to
slowly ease today as front nears the region but weakens, but
there will likely be a brief uptick late this afternoon with the
thermal gradient like the past few days. SCA conditions continue
into the late afternoon for the offshore waters and the Pamlico
Sound.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A front will stall across the area on
Thursday, resulting in variable 10-15 kt winds. 10-15 kt winds
will veer to the northeast by Friday morning and remain status
quo until Saturday afternoon when they become more easterly.
Winds will continue to veer to the southeast on Sunday. Seas
will generally be 2-4 ft through the period (3-5 ft south of
Cape Lookout through Thursday evening).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150-152-154-156-158-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC