042
FXUS62 KMHX 190736
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
336 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will bring chances of scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the area today, which will be capable of
producing heavy rain and isolated flooding. Hurricane Erin is
forecast to pass offshore Wednesday night through Thursday with
significant coastal impacts expected, especially along the Outer
Banks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2:15 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening may
produce heavy rainfall and isolated flooding

A weak frontal boundary/surface trough will linger across ENC today.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon/evening across the area. Forecast soundings
show 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with long, narrow CAPE profiles. Coupled
with PWATs around 2-2.5", moist low and mid-levels, and slow storm
motions, showers and thunderstorms will again have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Highs are forecast to
reach the mid- to upper-80s with heat indices in the low-to-mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2:30 AM Tuesday...

PoPs will diminish after sunset with low stratus expanding across
the area late tonight. Fog is also possible, especially across the
coastal plain in locations that receive rain today. Lows will drop
to the low- to mid-70s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

 - Hurricane Erin, which is still forecast to remain offshore,
   will make its closest pass Wednesday night into Thursday,
   with significant coastal impacts expected.

Wednesday...Bumped up pops as some rainbands from distant Erin
will begin to be felt acrs ENC. A weak PRE may develop along the
coast, as GFS/CMC_reg and to a lesser extent NAM12 advertise,
as initial band of mid level lift interact with weak frontal
boundary over the FA. The picture is not clear yet however, as
some guidance keep heavier showers offshore. The likelies for
eastern areas look good, with sct showers further west. Rain
amounts generally in the 0.25-0.5" range, which may go up or
down depending on evolution of features, but attm LPPM off HREF
no higher than around 0.75", so light to mod showers more
likely. Breezy nerly winds develop as gradient inc between
approaching Erin and high pres anchored to the north. Wind gusts
in the 15-25 mph range interior to 20-30 mph coastal areas by
late day.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Core of Hurricane Erin is
forecast to remain offshore but make its closest pass to our
coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is when
highest impacts will be felt across the coast, with tropical
storm force winds and coastal impacts (see TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING section for details). Bumped up winds based on slight
shift in track of Erin and a blend of the 19/00Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC_reg
was very reasonable. Tropical storm force gusts look to occur
across some adjacent counties to the Watch area, but still
forecast to be under sustained trop storm force. If the track
were to shift slightly more westward, there is potential for
some of the mainland zones west of the OBX to see some tropical
storm force sustained winds. Outer rain bands will afflict
mainly east of Hwy 17 (50-70%) while interior zones escape the
widespread rain showers (20-50%).

Friday through Sunday...Lingering coastal impacts still
possible into Fri as large back swell from slowly departing
Erin keeps high waves above 10 ft on the OBX. Sensible weather
impacts improve as high builds in. The high may break down some
by the weekend, esp the second half of the weekend as next
trough/front inc shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Currents obs are a mixed bag ranging from VFR
to LIFR with fog and low stratus overspreading the area. 5-10 kt
northeasterly winds will persist through the period but VIS and CIGs
are expected to further deteriorate through the overnight hours with
the inner coastal plain and southwestern zones being the most likely
candidates to see dense fog. IFR to LIFR stratus is expected to be
more widespread and potentially linger a few hours past sunrise.
CIGs should recover to MVFR by late morning ahead of another round
of scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Similarly
to yesterday, the environment is primed to support heavy rain. The
most likely window for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS due to convection will
be between 18-00z with PoPs diminishing after sunset. Scattered mid
and high clouds will linger through the rest of the period with
chances for fog increasing after midnight.

LONG TERM /Wed through Sat/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Winds inc a bit on Wed with gusts in the
15-20kt range. An uptick in winds Wed night into Thu as
Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach to ENC, with gusts of
20-30kt possible, though any tropical storm winds will remain
relegated to the coastal counties. More organized outer rain
bands should remain generally east of the TAF sites Wed night
into Thur, and rain chances are generally 40% or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2:45 AM Tuesday...

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all coastal
waters, the Pamlico Sound, and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds.

Marine conditions will become increasingly treacherous through
the day as Hurricane Erin continues to move northwest.
Northeasterly winds will increase from 10-15 kt this morning to
15-20 kt by early Tuesday morning. Of greater concern during the
short term is Hurricane Erin`s increasingly powerful long
period swell. Waves will increase from 4-8 ft at 14-16 seconds
this morning to 8-11 ft at 14-16 seconds by early Tuesday
morning. Winds and seas will become increasingly life
threatening thereafter.

LONG TERM /Wed through Sat/...
As of 2 PM Mon...Extremely treacherous conditions Wed, peaking
Wed night through Thu as Hurricane Erin makes her closest
approach to ENC with a very large wind field. This will bring
extremely life threatening marine conditions reaching their
worst during this time, with seas peaking 15-25 ft, and N to
Nerly winds peaking in the 30-40 kt range, gusting to 35-50 kt.
Wave heights and especially winds may still change and will be
dependent on Erin`s eventual track and intensity, which have yet
to be fully determined.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Coastal Flood Watches, Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf
  Advisories are in effect through as late as Friday night.
  Worst conditions are expected late Wednesday through Thursday
  as Hurricane Erin makes it`s closest approach to ENC.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected all week and likely
  into the weekend.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but large and
powerful Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats.
Significant coastal flooding/ocean overwash/erosion is likely,
especially around the high tide cycles. Minor impacts are
expected to start as early as Tuesday afternoon`s high tide
cycle, peak Wednesday into Thursday, and only slowly improve
on Friday. While all area beaches are expected to see impacts,
E to SE facing beaches are most likely to see the highest waves
(10+ ft) and roughest surf zone conditions. Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands are especially vulnerable to even higher waves
(15-20+ ft) and may experience major coastal impacts, including
portions of Highway 12 and secondary roads which may become
impassable and/or inaccessible in places through at least late
week.

Based on the current forecast track, moderate to major flooding
will mainly be focused along the oceanside. However, due to the
expected large wind field with Erin and the increase in north to
northeast winds on Pamlico Sound, minor soundside flooding on
lower Pamlico Sound and it`s adjacent tributaries are also
possible due to winds exceeding tropical storm strength. For
this reason, coastal flood advisory has been issued and extended
through Thursday for Carteret County to account for expected
minor inundation. The flooding may continue into Friday as well,
and may need to be extended in later updates.

Minor flooding is also possible on the Soundside for Hatteras
and Ocracoke islands on Thursday and possibly through Friday as
well due to the strong northerly winds, and eventual coastal
flood advisories may need to be issued on later shifts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ196-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ195-196.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ196-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT Friday
     night for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from this afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NCZ199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ131-230.
     Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/TL
MARINE...OJC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX