574
FXUS62 KMHX 030949
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
549 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory has been expanded to portions of the immediate
coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Friday

2) Strong cold front to bring relief from the heat this weekend
into early next week, along with a risk of thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses beneath
anomalous ridging aloft will continue to keep temperatures well
above normal today. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for
most of ENC, with heat index values peaking at 105-109 deg this
afternoon. Expanded the Heat Advisory to the immediate coast
and northern Outer Banks.

Friday continues to have the strongest signal for the peak of
this week`s heat wave, with highs approaching 100 degrees across
the coastal plain, and low to mid 90s along the coast. Even
with another strong seabreeze and southerly onshore flow, it
should get hot enough to reach Heat Advisory criteria even along
the coast. Of note, some inland locations may flirt with
Extreme Heat Warning criteria. Regardless, this will continue to
be a notable, and unusual, late-season heat wave for all of
ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas on Saturday.
Strong heating of a moist boundary layer ahead of the front
should allow moderate to potentially strong instability to
develop from the Mid-Atlantic south into North Carolina on
Friday. While some residual subsidence/capping may be present
beneath the ridge, especially across NC, guidance show a decent
signal for convection developing upstream of ENC, and making a
run towards the coast during the evening or overnight hours.
While the pattern is supportive of severe weather, the timing is
less favorable for ENC, and there is added uncertainty
regarding any residual influence of the ridge. Consequently,
machine learning guidance have actually backed off some on the
severe weather potential on Friday, which lowers overall
confidence.

On Saturday, the ridge will continue to get suppressed further
south and west with less influence across the Carolinas. This
plus increased forcing along the cold front should support an
improved risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors,
compared to Friday. Interestingly, machine learning guidance has
pulled back some on Saturday as well, and this may be related
to some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and how
much instability can develop along/ahead of it. Of the two days,
though, Saturday appears to have a better chance than Friday.
We`ll continue to monitor the potential over both days. In
general, the setup favors clusters of thunderstorms, perhaps an
MCS or two, impacting the area with strong to damaging wind
gusts.

Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will get knocked
back down closer to normal for early September, with more
comfortable conditions lasting into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this
morning. Light to calm winds early this morning, paired with
recent ground moisture, may help bring about some shallow
BR/MIFG towards sunrise. Probabilistic guidance doesn`t show
much of a signal, but will continue keep a mention in the TAFs
to keep consistent with the previous forecasts. Best chances at
OAJ and EWN. Iso to widely sct showers and storms possible
across the northern portions of the area this evening, with best
chances at PGV. Patchy fog will be possible for portions of the
area again overnight and early Fri morning.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook: The risk of TSRA is likely to increase late Friday
into Saturday as a cold front moves through the area. Confidence
is moderate regarding the timing of the greatest TSRA risk. For
now, the latest guidance shows the strongest signal on
Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any TSRA
during this time. Behind the front, a northeasterly wind shift
will occur, with northeasterly flow continuing into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SE-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. SE long-
period swell (2-3ft at 10-11s) from the remnants of "Dolly" will
continue to diminish across the waters today. Stronger thermal
gradient develops this afternoon and evening, with SSW winds
increasing to 10-15 kt gusting 15-20 kt with seas building to
2-4 ft.

Outlook: A strong thermal gradient will continue to support
moderate southwesterly winds of 10-20kt Friday and Friday night.
A cold front will then move through on Saturday and Sat night with
a northeasterly wind shift. Winds are expected to remain
moderate through Monday, then lay down as high pressure builds
in on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/2020  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/04 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       98/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD