211
FXUS62 KMHX 221421
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1021 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several chances for rain and storms through the rest of the week
as a wavy front will be nearby. Total accumulation through the
week on the order of one half to just over one inch. A stronger
cold front will sweep through late Saturday with better chances
for widespread showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 1020 AM Tue...Main change was to dec pops for today, as
main belt of forcing will reside north of the FA this afternoon,
towards the VA border. Still kept in a small pop for the nern
zones, where convergence of sea and sound breezes may kick off
a shower or two with some threat of thunder. The better chance
for rain will arrive tonight, when pops inc after around 6pm.

Prev disc...As of 0700 Tuesday...A cold front associated with
low pressure over Quebec will approach eastern NC late Tue.
SWerly flow ahead of the front will advect in low level moisture
and combined with surface heating will result in MLCAPE values
approaching 1kJ/kg, with SBCAPES a bit higher. This will result
in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing inland and
north in the afternoon. First, sea/sound/river breeze fronts
will be the focus of precip this afternoon. Then, later this
afternoon and early evening over the Coastal Plain where the
seabreeze will eventually meet the prefrontal trough. It appears
that effective shear on order of 25-30 kt will lead to a low
end severe weather threat (Marginal- Level 1 of 5) with strong
to locally damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. Best
chances for storms will be the northern zones, mainly north of
Hwy 264, where 30-50% pops in the forecast late in the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 0730 Tuesday...Rain to become more likely and more
widespread overnight as the front slowly works across the FA.
the front will begin crossing inland continues around midnight
in conjunction with a shortwave traveling NEward along the 95
corridor with PWATs peaking around 1.5" ahead of the front which
will be inching toward the Crystal Coast come sunrise
Wednesday. Expecting around half an inch or precip for areas in
the Coastal Plain and near the Albemarle. Because of this, have
changed from light to moderate showers for precip activity
associated with the collision of the seabreeze and prefrontal
trough. Continue to carry thunder through the overnight despite
the loss of heating, but expecting the strength of storms to be
waning through the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...Wednesday through Sunday...The front
will move south across the area Wed with scattered to numerous
showers and storms with locally heavy rains. There will be
enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to
keep a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms
across the area Thu and Fri. Yet another cold front is forecast
to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for
more widespread showers and storms. Highs Wed-Fri will be around
80, warming into the 80s Sat. Drier air and cooler temps move
in behind the front Sun with just a very low risk for a shower
and highs in the 70s.


Early next week...Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as
high pressure builds over the are from the north early next
week. Highs Mon will continue in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 0700 Tuesday...VFR flight cats expected through much of
Tues after OAJ fog scours out. SSWerly winds become gusty this
afternoon. This afternoon there will be a small threat for some
sct thunderstorms esp for KPGV/ISO later in the afternoon. Have
added precip at the end of this TAF cycle for inland terminals.
Flight cats deteriorate after 00Z when cold front and its
associated precip begins working across the FA. Keep VIS and
CIGs at MVFR for this time with the usual pessimistic guidance
showing potential for IFR.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists for the remainder of the week

A wavy frontal boundary will meander over the region through
much of the work week. In vicinity of this front, there will be
a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR conditions at times. The
greatest impact to aviation will be Wednesday into Thu and Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 0330 Tuesday...SWerly flow continues with speeds of 10-20
kt. These winds will cont through the day. Afternoon heating
gradient will kick up the winds in the sounds to near SCA levels
but not long enough duration to warrant a SCA headline. Later
Tue afternoon showers and storms will erupt with best chances
over Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds as well as the northern
OBX.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Veering winds, and increased chances for showers and
   thunderstorms


A cold front will push south through the waters Wed with winds
becoming NE around 15 kt and continuing Thu. Winds are forecast
to become SE around 10 kt Fri and S to SW 10-15 kt Sat ahead of
the next cold front. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through the
period with some 5 footers possible along the outer waters. The
fronts will also result in an increase in the risk of
thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and again Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...JME/SK
AVIATION...JME/CEB
MARINE...JME/CEB