379
FXUS62 KMHX 231518
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1018 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the area through mid-week
with warm and dry conditions. A cold front will cross the area
later Thursday with temperatures returning back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...No major changes to the forecast in the
near term with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Sun...High pressure will
continue over Eastern NC today, though from two separate areas,
one off the Atlantic coast, and the other over the Southern
Appalachians. In the middle of that, weak flow and variable
conditions will continue, and as the high to our west moves
closer, a weak backdoor front will move down the NE NC coast in
the afternoon. This will greatly effect temperatures along the
NOBX which will go from readings approaching 50 to the low 40s,
but have little impact elsewhere. High temps will approach 60
across much of the southern coastal plain and even towards the
southern coast, with slightly cooler conditions further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 10AM Sunday...Patchy fog potential still exists early
morning tomorrow, especially where snow melt has been observed
today and yesterday. There is a low (10%) chance of patchy
freezing fog tonight north of hwy 70, with best chances in snow
melt areas. elected to keep the fcst patchy fog and kept T/Td
over 32F. Will see how this evolves over the course of the day.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Sun...Another quiet night is
expected with high pressure over the southern Mid- Atlantic.
Skies will be mostly clear initially, but some increase in mid
and high level clouds is possible across the southern coast as
upper level energy passes to the south. Increased low level
moisture behind a weak backdoor cold front during the day will
open up a threat for some patchy fog as temps cool to the upper
20s to low 30s with great radiational cooling conditions in
place. Along the coast temps stay in the upper 30s to around 40
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Mainly dry weather expected through midweek as
high pres settles into the Deep South. This will bring a
warming trend, with above normal temperatures Mon through Wed.
Cold front passes with shower chances late on Thursday, then
temps back to near climo behind it.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will settle into the
Deep South, while hts/thicknesses rise to anomalous high levels.
This will be abnormally warm weather for ENC, with highs each
day in the 60s (55-60 for the immediate beachfront). Dry weather
will also persist with the high dominating. A weak coastal low
is expected to remain over the Gulf Stream on Tuesday, though
may spin some clouds and a couple showers into the OBX.

Thursday/Thursday Night...A cold front is forecast to cross the
area. This will bring a chance for showers to the area but
again most of the guidance is indicating only light amounts of
rainfall which will do little to ease the drought conditions.
Pops remain in the 30-40% range late Thu and especially Thu
nigh. No thunder expected as instability is slim to none. Highs
will be at their warmest this week on Thu, in the low 70s
interior to 60s coast.

Friday into Saturday...In the wake of the cold front, temps
will cool back down, but only to near climo readings, which for
late Feb are in the 55-62 degree range. Dry conditions will once
again dominate late week and into the weekend, building on the
drought conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday Morning/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...No major changes to the forecast with this
update. There is a low (10%) chance of the aforementioned patchy
fog to be freezing fog early morning tomorrow. Will see how
this evolves through the day today.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Sun...VFR conditions will
continue this morning and through today with dry high pressure
over the region. Aside from a few areas of high clouds it will
be mostly clear with very light winds. Tonight, clear skies and
calm winds will allow for great radiational cooling conditions,
and with low level moisture increasing, there will be a risk for
some patchy MVFR level fog to develop early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Expecting mainly VFR through Wed with high
pres dominating. Winds will be light through mid week. A cold
front passes through on Thu bringing potential for TEMPO sub-
VFR, though widespread heavy rain does not appear likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Great boating conditions will continue as weak
flow persists underneath an area of high pressure. Winds will
be W to NW this morning at 5-10 kts before a backdoor cold front
pushes in from the NC/VA border and turns winds around to the
NE at 5-10 kts behind it. The front looks to make it as far
south as Ocracoke Island, with SW sea breeze flow developing to
the south. Winds tonight will be light and variable due to
residual boundaries, but should eventually come around to the NE
at 5-10 kts by early tomorrow morning. Seas will be generally
1-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Excellent boating conditions expected through
mid week as high pres will reside just south of the region,
bringing light swrly winds and seas in the 2-3 ft range.
Thursday, swrly winds may inc to SCA levels over the Gulf Stream
waters ahead of a cold front that will pass through Thu night.
Operational models too high with the swrly winds for Pamlico and
our nearshore waters, and using local empirical wind tool blend,
winds will remain below SCA range for Pamlico sound and nrn
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/SGK/RJ
MARINE...TL/SGK