153
FXUS62 KMHX 130716
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions forecast today and Friday bringing
high probabilities for major heat risk impacts over much of the
area.

2) Low rain chances today, increasing Friday and Saturday as a
front moves through. Additional chances for widespread
precipitation possible early next week with a frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Muggy morning to start our day with temps
generally in the 70s and mo clear to partly cloudy skies across
the region. Continue to expect partly cloudy skies and hot and
humid conditions today and tomorrow as flow generally remains
W-SW`rly keeping low level thicknesses around 1430m today and
tomorrow. Based off our local climatological study, this is
forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the
inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast
each day with lows in the 70s each night. Combined with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices look to get
around 105-110F each afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect today for most of ENC. A Heat Advisory will
likely be needed Friday as well once the current one expires
unless the forecast changes substantially. There is a low end
chance for some extreme heat warning criteria being met mainly
in our SW`rn zones on Fri, but latest NBM/HREF probs of seeing
heat indices above 110F on Fri remain low (generally less than
20%) so not planning on upgrading headlines for now for Fri. We
encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this
week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.

A front impacts the region Fri evening into Sat resulting in
cooler temperatures this weekend. Temps may briefly warm up once
again early next week as well bringing yet another threat of
heat advisory conditions to ENC next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low precip chances continue today, with one or
two isolated showers/tstms possible along the sea breeze.
Across the upper levels, N`rn stream Jet remains active and
generally to the north of the Carolinas with several troughs
transiting across it over the next several days. Troughing will
dig S across the Mid-Atlantic on Fri before pushing offshore
with a second trough then tracking across the region early next
week. At the mid levels, weak shortwave will transit along the
periphery of a ridge centered over the Gulf States today, but
with dry air in place and subsidence aloft not expecting much in
the way of precip today outside of the seabreeze. Because of
this have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this
afternoon. An approaching complex of showers/tstms is forecast
to near our northern zones this evening. However, model trends
suggest the best energy remains to our north, and as a result we
may avoid all of the activity tonight. However, given low
predictability, elected to keep Schc PoPs across the N`rn
counties for tonight.

As mentioned above, a stronger trough is progged to push across
the Mid-Atlantic Fri with the attendant surface cold front
pushing into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best
chances for showers and storms across ENC. Some of these storms
on Fri into Fri night could become strong to severe in nature
as they near the area given ample instability. With PWATs also
forecast to get above 2" on Fri as well, frequent lightning,
torrential rain, and gusty winds will be possible in the
strongest storms. SPC currently has the far western coastal
Plain in a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) for
gusty winds, while WPC has the entire area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall (level 1/4) given low end flash
flooding risk. Precip becomes more isolated in nature by Sat
afternoon as the front pushes offshore.

High pressure briefly builds into the area Sat/Sun bringing
bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms.
However, a second frontal boundary looks to approach early next
week which could once again bring increased chances for showers
and storms to ENC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast calls for primarily VFR conditions through the period
with minimal cloud cover and enough dry air over the region to
preclude a fog threat this morning. Continue to expect partly
cloudy skies today and light breezes with a low end chance for
some isolated showers along the seabreeze this afternoon.
Chances are low enough to preclude a mention in the TAFs either
way. As we get into tonight, the first forecast challenge
arises. Approaching showers and storms from the north and west
will be weakening this evening. However, they could bring some
sub- VFR conditions in the form of MVFR low low stratus,
especially late tonight (after 06Z) will continue to monitor
this threat and include it in the TAFs in the coming updates if
trends hold.

Outlook (Friday through Tue): A cold front is progged to push
through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the
best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions
return Sat evening/Sun as high pressure briefly builds into the
area. However, yet another potential round of sub-VFR conditions
are possible Mon/Tue with the passage of yet another front.

&&

.MARINE...
No real changes to the marine forecast into next week. Benign
boating conditions are expected through at least Fri morning
across ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours,
will increase this afternoon to around 10-20 kt and become S-SW
as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between
the thermal trough inland and an offshore high. Gusts may
approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke
Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but
currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters
given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts.
Seas will remain around 1-3 ft into Fri. As we get into Fri
afternoon and evening, an approaching cold front will
strengthen the gradient and while not explicitly stated, bring
the potential for stronger and near SCA force wind gusts and 3-5
ft seas to our waters. Will have to monitor trends in case
SCA`s are needed in the coming days. A return to more benign
boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into Sun as high
pressure ridging builds into the area. Yet another front nears
the area Sun night into Mon bringing yet another chance at SCA
conditions.

A cold front is progged to push across the waters late
Friday/Friday night bringing the best chance to see showers and
thunderstorms with a second front bringing yet another chance
at showers and storms early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF