753
FXUS62 KMHX 201047
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
647 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will remain in control today. A
backdoor front will push through the area Monday bringing
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will ridge in from the north mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 645 AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect today with heat indices reaching
  105-110 degrees.

- Drier conditions expected with only isolated to widely
  scattered thunderstorm chances

Offshore high remains in control, with troughing inland and
ridging aloft. Dangerous heat and humidity continues today with
highs again expected to reach the mid to upper 90s inland, and
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Oppressive humidity will
remain in place, and heat indices peaking at 105-110 degrees.
Drier air in the mid and upper levels and lack of stronger
forcing will help limit convective coverage, despite strong
surface instability. Seabreeze should be enough to generate
diurnal iso to widely sct shower/tstms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Sun...High pressure weakens as backdoor front
gradually sinks southward into the area early Monday morning.
Should be a mostly dry and muggy night with lows in the upper
70s to around 80 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Highest rain chances Monday

- Isolated diurnal storms possible Tuesday through Saturday

Monday:
Monday cold front moves through the region, with northerly flow
and drier dewpoints trailing behind it. While the initial wind
switch occurs in the morning, the drier air behind it comes
through later Monday evening. Monday afternoon and evening
20-30kts of shear and PWATs over 2" ahead of the drier air will
cause scattered to widespread tstorms to move through the region
capable of strong to severe wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning. Widespread 0.5-1" of rainfall is expected, with
isolated values of 3-5" possible where tstorms train. Highest
moisture is located generally east of hwy 17, and this area is
likely to see the most rainfall from the rain event.

Monday may be another hot heat advisory criteria day IF
convection is delayed or does not materialize in the early
afternoon hours. The current thinking is convection should
provide enough cloud cover the keep apparent Ts below 105F, but
this will warrant further analysis over the next 24 hours.


Tuesday-Saturday:
Tuesday through Thursday subsidence aloft dries up the mid and
upper levels, bringing PoPs down as storm coverage along
boundaries is expected to be isolated and the sea breeze is
pinned to the coast. Dewpoints also drop to the upper 60s with
north/northeast flow, leading to a very pleasant couple of days
over ENC next week. Friday there is a lot of uncertainty in rain
chances, as it will be dependent on how the former back door
cold front stalls to our south and behaves through the week.
Some long term ensemble members try to form a weak low from this
stalled boundary that then heads towards the SE coast. However,
at this point probs of the low forming are less than 20%, but
will be worth monitoring. At this point, any impacts from a
potential low would be limited to degraded marine conditions,
with no true cause for concern for the public forecast at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals, with convection now mainly east. Patchy fog may
develop early this morning, though confidence is low. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, much lesser
coverage than the past few days.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday, bringing with it reduced vis
and cigs within thunderstorms. T-storms could also bring
frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and gusty winds. There
could be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well with
light to calm winds and moist low levels Monday morning,
exacerbated by any areas that see meaningful rainfall during the
daytime. Highest rain chances in the long term are Monday as a
back door cold front moves through bringing with it a wind shift
from SW to N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Marginal Small Craft conditions may develop across portions of
  the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound this afternoon and
  evening.

Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. The
thermal gradient will strengthen this afternoon and evening,
with SW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. May see a few gusts to 25
kt across the eastern Pamlico Sound and central/southern coastal
waters. Still looks too marginal for SCA at this time. Seas 2-4
ft today, building to 3-5 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Monday morning a back door cold front moves
through, bringing behind it north/northeast winds 10-20kt and
showers/tstorms moving from NW to SE through the day. As hi-res
guidance is becoming available, there is potential for gusty
winds greater than 25 kts to follow behind the back door cold
front Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be worth monitoring over
the next couple days. N/NE flow continues through Tuesday
before becoming more E Wednesday and veering to become S/SW by
Friday. Seas 2-4 ft expected through much of the long term, with
an increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday night in response to increased
winds. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday before we
see a drier stretch of weather mid-week with decreasing rain
chances (15-30%).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203-205.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-204.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ