179
FXUS62 KMHX 230536
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1236 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the
eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in
late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry
weather pattern. A stronger cold front may aprroach and move
through around Thanksgiving day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 2200 Friday...No changes required as forecast is tracking
well.

Previous disco as of 1900 Friday...With loss of mixing, winds
over inland areas have really fallen off after sunset, prompting
a marked decrease in forecasted winds. Winds at beaches were
lowered as well, but not as drastically. In turn, have also
lowered hrly and MinTs a degree or two, moreso for the typical
sheltered spots, for the increase in rad cooling gained with
the weaker winds.

For tonight, gradient will tighten with
decent CAA ongoing, and will prevent atms from decoupling with a
10-20 mph breeze overnight inland. On the coast, particularly
the OBX, winds will gust upwards of around 45 mph, though remain
below wind adv criteria. The breezy conditions will prevent a
freeze or frost, though temps in the upper 30s combined with the
wind will make it feel like it is freezing or below, with wind
chills around 30 by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...The gradient relaxes a bit tomorrow, and temps
will rise due to inc thicknesses. Temps should still be below
climo, but rise some 10 degrees or so, with highs in the upper
50s. Some places may briefly touch 60. Expecting less cloud
cover, though some sct to ocnl bkn strato cu may develop during
peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

- Warming trend through Tuesday
- Multiple fronts mid to late next week

High pressure will remain dominant until Tuesday when the next
wave is forecast to traverse the eastern U.S.

Saturday night...A lack of cloud cover and light winds will
allow for efficient radiative cooling, so lows will be back down
to the mid 30s across the coastal plain (mid 40s beaches).

Sunday - Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft and building high pressure
at the surface will support a dry and gradually warmer forecast
for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Highs will
increase from the low to mid 60s on Sunday to upper 60s to low
70s on Tuesday. A front is forecast to cross ENC on Tuesday
afternoon, but guidance is not in agreement on how wet or dry
this system will be, so I opted to lean towards the drier
guidance at this time and capped PoPs at 20%.

Wednesday - Thursday...Wednesday looks mostly dry as of now as
high pressure will briefly resume. By Wednesday evening,
however, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC and linger
through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter and
supports widespread stratiform rain, but PoPs have been capped
at chance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...

 - LLWS impacts continue for another few hours

 - Gusty west winds (20-25kt) continue into Saturday afternoon

A semi-permanent area of low pressure off the New England coast
will keep a moderate pressure gradient in place across coastal
NC overnight into Saturday. This will continue to support a
modest westerly flow, gusty at times, through late afternoon
Saturday. Winds will gust as high as 20-25kt for much of the
area during this time, with higher gusts to 35kt expected along
the Outer Banks. Winds should finally begin to decrease for much
of the area by Saturday evening as low pressure moves away from
the New England coast, and as the local gradient relaxes. Of
note, over the next few hours, a WNW low-level jet overtop the
westerly surface winds will continue to support marginal LLWS
conditions/impacts across much of ENC.

Based on satellite imagery, recent model guidance has been
overdone with the amount of low-mid level moisture and clouds
across ENC, and with this TAF update, I took out all low and mid
cloud mention. Another round of SCT to BKN low clouds will be
possible during the day Saturday, but given recent model
performance, I pulled back on the CIG potential some. Even
where/if CIGs occur, VFR conditions are expected.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2200 Friday...VFR flight cats expected through the
long term with next best chance for sub VFR being FROPA next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...WNW winds this afternoon 15-25kt will become
wrly and inc to 25-35 kt for the sounds and coastal waters. Have
brought the gales to SCA`s for Alligator River as wrly short
fetch will be in place. Marginal gales may occur for several
hours for Pamlico and Neuse rivers due to the favorable fetch,
positive delta T`s as incoming airmass will be colder than the
waters will allow for good mixing and solid gales for the
remainder of the marine domain overnight. Seas of 4-6 ft
will build to 6-8 ft by this evening and into tonight. Wind
gradient relaxes on Sat and gales will eventually be replaced by
SCA`s.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...Marine conditions will gradually improve
on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect everywhere except the
inland rivers through Saturday morning. Winds will be decreasing
through the day, but SCA conditions will persist through
Saturday evening, lasting the longest for waters north of Cape
Hatteras. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, all
waters will be below SCA criteria. Winds will generally be 10-20
kt with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-
     136-137.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC