402
FXUS62 KMHX 181805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
205 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid through the weekend, potentially lingering
into the middle of week.

2) Unsettled pattern this weekend lasting into next week,
including a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions will continue through
the weekend, peaking this afternoon. Heat Adv continues for the
area with heat index values 105-110 deg through early evening.
Heat Advisories will also need to be considered daily SUN into
the middle of next week, though we may see a dip in heat MON
with greater coverage of rain helping bump MaxTs into the upper
80s and low 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There are several factors expected to support
an increasingly active pattern into next week.

Upper level troughing will continue to strengthen over the
Eastern U.S. with ridging shifting away from the area. Persistent
S-SWerly flow E of the trough, potentially with a subtropical
connection, should act to enhance low-mid level moisture across
the area. Meanwhile, heating of a moistening boundary layer
should lead to sufficient instability and reduced inhibition in
support of periods of convection.

At the surface, the front that sunk into the Albemarle Sound
yesterday has lifted back Nward into VA, acting to "warm-
sector" the entire FA for the weekend. Lee- side troughing and,
eventually, a frontal boundary that will reach the FA by MON
should provide areas of enhanced low- level forcing this
weekend with gradually improving mid and upper level flow
becoming more conducive to organized storm modes as trough aloft
sharpens. Bulk of guidance shows a mostly dry daytime forecast
with a dry at 850 remaining overhead until tonight. Though, some
more excitable HiRes solutions show pockets of increased
moisture shunted into the area from the high pressure offshore
leading to SChc PoPs. Isolated showers and storms developing to
the south and west early this afternoon...and may blossom a bit
with the seabreeze in the next few hours. Main concern will be
this evening, towards sunset with storms that develop W and N
of the FA closer to the approaching front and with greater mid
and upper level support. These storms are forecast to be
weakening while they cross the Nern half of the FA from W to E.
Should more organized cells persist, they will carry a threat
of damaging wind gusts. As such, SPC has inland portions of the
FA outlined in a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) of severe thunderstorms.

Sunday, the SFC front will enter and stall over the Nern half of
the FA. SPC`s day 2 outlook for SUN features a Slight Risk (lvl
2/5) for the bulk of the area. Moisture pooling and low level
convergence will be maximized SUN afternoon into SUN night as
the cold front approaches. PWATs peak on the order of 2 and
3/4in with increasing afternoon and evening instability through
the weekend. Main concerns will be the potential for damaging
wind gusts, heavy rain and freq lightning late afternoon into
Sun night. WPC has upgraded most of the region into Slight Risk
for flood potential Sun.

Additionally, while guidance remains mixed, there is a modest
signal for low pressure development across the northeastern
Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has increased probability
of development a bit to 30/40% over the next 2/7 days. Though
no explicitly tropical impacts are expected from this system
locally, this low could act to enhance rainfall along the SE
coast by further increase Gulf moisture transport from its Eern
half through early next week while SUN`s front lingers across
the region.

Tropics aside, deterministic and machine learning guidance
continue to show a good signal for some strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm potential during this period of active
weather. Right now the signal is the strongest on Sunday. Though
this could be dependent on convection tonight and how much
destabilization is possible Sun. Given increased forcing from
the approaching front and the potential tap of subtropical
moisture, heavy rain and some hydro impacts may eventually be
realized.

A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross the area WED
into THU, posing the next threat for severe weather later in the
forecast period. SPC and WPC currently have the area outlooked
for potential stronger storms and heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon with breezy
SSW flow. Isolated showers and storms beginning to develop,
which could temporarily impact the sites through this evening.
Better convective chances will be later this evening, between
00-04z, with best chances at PGV. Low fog threat overnight with
light SW breeze, though could see patchy lower stratus. Stratus
probs look low (less than 10%), so will not include at this
time. Better convective coverage expected Sunday afternoon and
evening, which could lead to periods of sub-VFR. A few stronger
storms are also possible, with potential for damaging wind
gusts, heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): The risk of TSRA
increases Sunday night when a front enters and stalls over the
area through early next week. Sub-VFR conditions can be
expected along with the TSRA impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest surface and buoy obs indicate S-SW winds 10-20 kt with
seas 2-3 ft. Moderate SSW winds will increase to 20-30 kt this
evening, peaking tonight around midnight. SCAs continue for the
Neuse/Bay Rvrs, Pamlico Sound and nearshore coastal waters. Over
the outer coastal waters, a few gale-force gusts will be
possible tonight into Sunday morning, but probs look low. Seas
will quickly respond to the winds, building to 4-7 ft tonight.
Moderate to strong SW winds will continue Sunday, stronger south
of Hatteras with seas 3-6 ft.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): SUN`s front stalls
over the area lingering through early next week. Keeping
elevated winds, seas, and tstorm chances in the forecast. For
the outer waters, elevated winds and seas may last for much of
the week. A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross
regional waters mid to late week, bringing another round of
strengthening SW winds and tstorm chances, mainly later Tue and
Wed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD