025
FXUS62 KMHX 212358
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
758 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will push through the area tonight and then
move to the south of ENC on Tuesday bringing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to ENC. High pressure will
ridge in from the north mid-week bringing more comfortable
weather to the area. Heat and humidity look to return to ENC
late this week into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7:45 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

 - Heat Advisory remains in effect south of US-264 through this
   afternoon with heat indices peaking around 105-110 degrees
   today.

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected across ENC this
   afternoon and evening will have the potential to bring strong
   wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Latest surface analysis shows the previously mentioned backdoor
cold front slowly tracking S`wards across our CWA this evening.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has waned since the seabreeze
diminished, but additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
to tonight. We`ll see a quick decrease from north to south as
the aforementioned cold front pushes south across ENC tonight
and nears the coast by daybreak. Threat for severe storms will
also wane with loss of sfc heating. Lows expected in the mid 70s
with NE flow bringing slightly lower dewpoints late and it
won`t be quite as sultry heading out Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

-Cooler and drier weather expected on Tuesday for much of ENC

Cold front is expected to push off the Crystal Coast by Tuesday
morning, with cooler air filtering into the region through the
day. Will likely still see some iso to widely scattered showers
and tstms primarily along the Crystal Coast through the
afternoon hours as the front struggles to make significant
progress south. Though to the north of about Hwy 70 expecting a
rather pleasant and precip free day. Highs will be cooler, in
the mid-80s for much of ENC. Dewpoints will be a bit slower to
fall but will eventually drop to the upper-60s inland by Tuesday
evening (low-70s dewpoints lingering along the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Monday...

Key Messages:

 - A stretch of cooler and drier weather is expected this week
   with only scattered to isolated rain chances.

 - Hot weather returns late this week with heat indices
   expected to again climb into above 100.


Wednesday-Thursday: The front will linger just offshore Wednesday,
while drier air moves into most of ENC. Temps will remain a bit
cooler on Wednesday, with highs expected in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Front breaks down on Thursday, and winds will gradually veer back to
southwesterly. Highs climb back toward 90 gain. Chances for isolated
to widely scatter thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Drier low-
levels will contribute to lower CAPE than previous days coupled with
weak shear are expected to limit any severe potential.

Friday-Monday: Hot and humid conditions return late this week as
highs again climb into the mid-90s with dewpoints in the low-to-mid
70s. In combination, this looks to again bring heat indices of 100-
105 on Friday and 105-110 Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday morning/...
As of 7:30 PM Monday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this evening

 - Sub-VFR stratus expected across much of the area tonight

As the backdoor cold front continues to sink south tonight,
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across ENC. Regardless of overnight precip coverage, MVFR to
IFR stratus is expected to develop across the area around
midnight. With the front lingering near our southern zones
tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through at least early afternoon with the best chances being at
OAJ. For PGV and ISO, low stratus will scatter out by mid-
morning. Winds will be light and variable tonight but will
become northeasterly by early tomorrow morning, increasing to 10
kt with gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 2 AM Monday...A stretch of drier weather is expected
which should lead to predominately VFR conditions through the
week. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain
possible along the sea breeze each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 250 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

 - A backdoor front will push through the waters tonight.

A backdoor front will push through our waters tonight bringing
numerous showers and thunderstorms to all waters through late
tonight before chances begin to decrease from north to south.
South of the front SW`rly winds at 5-10 kts persist while to the
north of this front winds have veered to a N-NE direction at
5-15 kts. Expect winds across all waters to shift to a N-NE`rly
direction by early Tue morning at 10-15 kts as the front pushes
south of the area. Expect showers and storms to hang around
Onslow Bay in the morning before chances decrease Tue as the
front continues S with winds then increasing behind the front to
10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts in the outer Coastal
Waters. These winds should then persist into Tue night. Seas
generally remain around 2-4 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Behind a back door cold front Tuesday,
northeasterly winds will strengthen to 15-20 kts with some gusts
to 25 kts possible through Tuesday night. Winds will weaken
slightly Wednesday to 10-20 kts with gusts largely expected to
remain below 25 knots. Winds then come around to the E/SE
Thursday at 5-10 kts, and then SW 5-15 kts Friday.

Seas will build to 3-5 ft Tuesday and remain 3-5 ft through
Wednesday before subsiding to 2-4 ft Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079-080-
     090>092-094-193-194-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK/ZC
AVIATION...OJC/ZC
MARINE...RCF/ZC