761
FXUS62 KMHX 110719
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot today, with increasing humidity

2) More unsettled pattern expected through the weekend as front
stalls near the area.

3) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with
high draped over the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath
anomalous ridging aloft will support above to well above normal
temperatures for much of ENC today. The one exception is the
northern OBX where a slowing front may briefly dip into the area
leading to a "cooler" northeasterly flow.

Increasing low-level moisture will support increasing humidity
today which should translate to heat indices topping out at
100- 105 degrees. Risk of heat indices exceeding 105F still
appears too low to issue any heat advisory for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Today, a slowing cold front will begin
encroaching on ENC from Virginia. Guidance is honing in on a
solution where the front lingers somewhere between the NC/VA
border and the Pamlico river. Given the strength of the
Southeast U.S. ridge, it would make sense that the front won`t
make much headway through ENC. Meanwhile, moisture and
instability will continue to increase south of the front, and
this should support at least a slight step up in the risk of
afternoon convection. This may especially be the case as a
shortwave moves through the area and as we get a glancing
influence from the entrance region of an upper jet that will be
sliding by to the north. While the focus of convection should be
where the front stalls, it stands to reason that isolated to
scattered convection will be able to develop, likely focused
along the seabreeze. Instability looks to be modest (around
1000j/kg MLCAPE), but with some residually dry air aloft and
higher DCAPE, the strongest storms may produce gusty winds of
40-50 mph.

Moisture continues to build on Saturday, with PWATs forecast to
rise above 2". This combined with the seabreeze, a dampening
shortwave, and inland troughing should support an increased
coverage of convection compared to Friday. There`s some
uncertainty regarding the strength of convergence along the
inland trough. If the inland trough ends up weaker, the coverage
of convection may be lower across the coastal plain.
Regardless, any thunderstorms that form on Saturday will be
capable of very heavy rainfall rates and minor, nuisance-stlye
flooding. Instability continues to look modest, and this should
keep the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms LOW.

On Sunday, the stalled front should finally get shoved south
through all of ENC as a stronger shortwave passes by to the
north. A continued moist and modestly unstable environment
should support another day of scattered to perhaps numerous
showers and thunderstorms along the advancing front. Heavy rain
and minor flooding continues to look like the primary risk.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Anomalous upper level ridging and a notably
strong surface high builds into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
next week favoring warm and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

Dry conditions through the morning hours. As far as cigs go,
ensemble guidance cont to show moderate probabilities (40-60%
chance) of MVFR to IFR CIGs developing. This seems reasonable
given low- level moisture returning north into the area. A few
spots could see IFR to LIFR CIGS, but the majority of terminals
should be VFR to MVFR early this morning. A few showers or
storms may form on the seabreeze away from the coast and
propagate north and west through the afternoon, but coverage is
too low to include in the fcst for most terminals with this
update. The exception is PGV, where a closer proximity to an
approaching front provides enough potential forcing to include a
prob30 group for TSRA this evening.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the front lingers over NC,
with light to calm winds and ample pooled moisture over the
region. This increases probabilities of a fog and low stratus
threat for all terminals and will be worth monitoring for future
updates.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Increasing moisture and
instability is expected to lead to an increasing risk of TSRA
this weekend. A risk of sub-VFR conditions will accompany the
TSRA risk as well. Periods of low stratus/CIGs will be possible
Saturday night as well. A cold front is forecast to move south
through the area on Sunday with a northerly wind shift and
drying conditions behind it. VFR conditions then look to prevail
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are laying down some this morning as a front approaches
from the north with a somewhat relaxed gradient. It will still
be breezy, though, especially for the southern waters where the
gradient will be the strongest.

The risk of thunderstorms may increase across the southern
waters early this morning as a weakening coastal low approaches
from the south. The risk of thunderstorms then shifts to the
inland rivers and sounds in the afternoon and evening hours,
especially the Alligator/Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke waters.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to be stalled around the
Albemarle Sound vicinity Saturday morning. This front will then
lift north of all waters during the day Saturday. The front will
then come back south through the area on Sunday. Thunderstorms
on Saturday should be focused across the inland rivers and
sounds. The risk then shifts south and to the coastal waters on
Sunday as the cold front moves through. A period of northerly
flow ensues behind the front and then lasts into next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ