335
FXUS62 KMHX 100659
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
159 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to sweep across the area early this
morning, with a reinforcing arctic front following tonight.
High pressure then returns for the middle to latter half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...Latest analysis shows sfc low along the NE
coast with attendant cold front moving through the coastal plain
early this morning. Area of showers and isolated coastal
thunderstorms continue to push through this morning ahead of the
boundary. Svr risk still looks low, but could see isolated
stronger wind gust over the coastal waters during the next few
hours. Precip will taper off from west to east early this
morning as drier and cooler air surges in. Cloudy skies this
morning, will clear rapidly late morning and this afternoon from
west to east with downsloping flow off the Appalachians. Low
level thickness values and clearing skies support highs temps in
the low/mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60 along the
coast (about 10 deg below climo).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season arrives tonight into Tuesday.

 - Freeze warning now in effect for most of Mainland ENC.

 - Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries possible
   late tonight, with best chances across the northern tier.

A reinforcing arctic cold front will move through tonight. With
this arctic wind surge, gusty winds and plummeting temps
expected. A good chance for a freeze for much of inland ENC,
with upper 20s to lower 30s expected. Freeze Warnings continue
for most of the area (except Downeast and the Outer Banks). A
strong breeze will limit optimal radiational cooling, but either
way, areas that don`t get a freeze will feel like they`re well
below freezing due to the gusty nwrly breezes.

Other than the cold, beneath the upper low which, in
conjunction with a stout embedded midlevel shortwave traversing
the region, may support brief -ra/sn to light snow or snow
showers/flurries. Have cont 20-30% pops, highest along the Hwy
64 corridor, where a light dusting on grassy areas may occur.
Certainly no impacts or accums on roads expected. Elsewhere,
some snow flurries may make it to the ground all the way to the
Crystal Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages

- The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Thicknesses/hts bottom out on Tue, with
highs only in the 40s area-wide, some 20 degrees below climo.
Some question on how quickly return flow can develop on Tue
night. There is a window for the coldest night of the season to
fall along the mainland coastal zones if winds can stay calm to
light. Have lows around freezing for the Crystal Coast through
Mainland Dare. If winds pick up too quickly, as they are
expected to gradually inc out of the sw with swrly gradient
picking up, a freeze here could be prevented.

Wednesday through Sunday...High pressure remains centered
across the SE US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming
temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in
the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and
early next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0045 Monday...

Key Messages:
- Overnight FROPA
- SHRA likely 6Z-10Z, coastal sites may see TSRA
- SubVFR flight restrictions possible same time frame as SHRA
- Winds switch to NW and become gusty behind front
- Winds remain gusty through mid-week

VFR flight cats in place with SWerly winds of 5-10kt ahead of a cold
front approaching from the W. Expectation is for SCT to NUM SHRA to
overspread ENC the next few hours, with an embedded TSRA or two
possible, greatest chance coastal terminals, but expecting lightning
to remain E of TAF sites for the most part. There is a low chance
(<5%) for a stronger thunderstorm that could produce a stronger wind
gusts (40-60 mph) or small hail. Once cold front pushes through
respective sites, winds become NWerly around 10 kts with gusts to 15-
20 kts. Guidance indicates there will be a brief period of MVFR
conditions for coastal terminals of OAJ/EWN after midnight tonight,
but do not expect these reductions to last more than a few hours.
Chances for IFR ceilings are currently LOW. Drier air moving in
behind the front will then kill convective showers and begin to
clear skies from W to E. VFR flight cats through the entirety of
daylight hours MON.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming work
week. The one exception is Monday night as a secondary cold front
moves through with the potential for a brief round of low CIGs and
SHRASN. Should any SN occur, it is expected to be brief with no
accumulations, and mainly confined from KPGV Eward through KFFA,
though terminals S of the aforementioned line may see some flurries.
A period of gusty Werly winds is expected Tuesday, followed by gusty
SWerly winds on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Key Messages

- Strong W/NW winds will develop late tonight and Tuesday
  morning
- SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday

Latest obs show WSW-SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. A cold
front will move through the waters early this morning, with
winds becoming NW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. A much stronger
reinforcing arctic front is still expected to move through the
waters tonight, with W-NW winds increasing to 20-30 kt gusting
25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and the
Pamlico Sound, with SCAs for the inland rivers and northern
sounds through mid day Tue. Seas build as high as 6-9 ft for
the waters s of Hatteras. Winds relax a bit Tue night, but
reinforcing gradient on swrly winds expected Wed, and could see
some gales again south of Cape Hatteras once again. Winds and
seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high pressure
builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half
of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ131-136-137.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD