640
FXUS62 KMHX 061226
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas this
weekend, as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will
move through early next week with low pressure developing along
it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sat...Latest analysis shows high pressure building
over the Carolinas, front offshore with low pressure moving
eastward along it. Areas of light rain, drizzle and fog will
continue overnight into Sat morning. Boundary is forecast to
remain stalled just south of ENC today. Given the close
proximity, and waves moving through the region, there`s the
potential for areas of light overrunning precipitation esp
across the southern forecast area...likely creating a sharp
precip gradient. Rain chances taper off to chc to the north, and
slight chance to none north of Hwy 264. Cloud cover and low
level thickness values will keep temps well below normal, with
highs generally 45-50 deg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sat...High pressure will continue to build over
the Carolinas tonight with front well offshore, as waves move
along it. Cloud cover will limit radiational cooling some, but
still expect lows to fall below freezing for most inland areas.
Areas of fog could also develop inland, leading to another
isolated risk for patchy freezing fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sat...Mainly dry Sun, then small precip chances
Mon, with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather
maker possible by week`s end.

Sunday...High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N,
keeping it mostly dry. Partial clearing of skies with a decrease
in moisture and increasing heights allow MaxTs to reach back
into the 50s.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end.
There may be some overlap where rain mixes with some snow, but
very limited to no impacts expected even if this low end
scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a
`warm` ground would be in place.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board
return as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind
Monday`s front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the
coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed as
winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into
the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and
OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Friday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week`s end,
as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont
active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in
details and timing, pops kept at 20% or lower for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0720 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- High confidence in IFR flight cats, or lower, through the
  morning
- Flight cats slow to improve through the day SAT, VFR by late
  evening.
- Improvements will be short lived with another round of fog
  expected overnight SAT into SUN am.

Precip shield expected to remain offshore early, creeping back
NWward over the Crystal Coast during the day with a brief
window of 20-40% PoPs over coastal TAF sites around midday.
Reduced VIS and OVC stratus with moisture trapped under the
frontal inversion keeps IFR in place through morning. VIS and
CIGs will be slow to improve through the day, getting to MVFR in
the afternoon and then VFR spreading from W to E through the
evening. Winds remain light, generally out of the NW early
becoming more Werly through the afternoon and evening. Skies
expected to clear as high pressure builds in which will open the
door for some radiational cooling and another bout of subVFR
fog developing from W to E overnight tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions likely persist across the area on SUN
once fog clears out ahead of the next approaching front and
coastal low pressure system. By Monday, pattern becomes wet
again return to sub-VFR flight cats likely as the developing low
pressure makes it closest point of approach. VFR conditions are
then once again expected Tue into Wed across ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 445 AM Sat...Latest obs show N-NW winds 10-15 kt gusting
to 20 kt with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south.
Extended SCAs for the northern and central waters through mid
morning for lingering swell keeping seas around 6 ft. High
pressure will build in from the north through the weekend with
stalled front offshore. NW winds 5-15 kt today, becoming N-NE
tonight and Sunday. Seas will subside to mainly 2-4 ft tonight,
occasionally up to 5 ft across the outer central waters.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in NNE
winds. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for
gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of Cape
Hatteras. Seas will quickly inc to 5-9 ft during the day Mon
and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to near SCA (15-25 kt) for the Gulf
waters, and 10-20 kt elsewhere.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD