780
FXUS62 KMHX 072323
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
723 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are possible through
the weekend as well as dangerous afternoon heat indices
nearing triple digits. The unsettled pattern will continue
through midweek, keeping rain and strong to severe thunderstorms
in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 715 PM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe storms are possible through late this evening

Had several strong to severe thunderstorms roll through ENC
earlier this afternoon with ongoing activity now nearing the
coast and OBX as of this update. DO also have additional shower
and weak thunderstorm activity further to the west which is just
now nearing our far western CWA. Not expecting the further west
activity to be particularly strong given the environment has
been worked over pretty well but some continued shower activity
will be possible into about midnight before the precip threat
ends. Still may see a few stronger storms through this evening
primarily along the coast but the threat is beginning to wind
down. Otherwise didn`t make any significant changes on this
update as we still expect the front/trough to sweep across the
region tonight with a warm and muggy evening ahead.

Previous Disc...Latest analysis shows front draped through the
NE and Mid- Atlantic with waves of low pressure along it. Widely
scattered showers and storms beginning to fire early this
afternoon, aided by the seabreeze, confluence zone near the
prefrontal trough and shortwave developing over central NC.
Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
25-35 kt, steep low level lapse rates, and DCAPE values in
excess of 1000 J/kg. The environment remains supportive for
strong to severe thunderstorm development through this evening.
CAMs continue to paint a messy picture, with potential for a mix
of discrete cells and linear clusters, some of which may merge
into larger bowing segments later in the evening. SPC has the
entire CWA outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
weather with the main concern being damaging wind gusts.
Additional hazards include:
hail, heavy rain (PWATs approaching 2") and frequent lightning.
Convection expected to grad push off the coast this evening,
with severe threat likely waning after 9-10 PM, with loss of
diurnal heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM Sat...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
   evening.

A mid level shortwave approaches the area with a sfc low
reflection tracking to the north Sunday bringing a threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Could see some strong to severe
storms Sunday afternoon and evening with moderate instability
(SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear
around 25-35 kt. With PW values around 1.75-2", thunderstorms
could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. SPC has the region
in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms with damaging
wind gusts the primary threat. The warm front is currently
forecast to remain just north of the VA/NC border, however if
this boundary is able to push further south than models
currently show, a small tornado threat could develop across the
very northern tier (near the Albemarle Sound). Hot and humid
conditions will continue, with highs ranging from the low 90s
inland to mid/upper 80s for the beaches...and heat index values
approaching 100 deg in some spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of
   the long term.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through mid week. The
airmass remains moderately unstable with modest shear most days
and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak
heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical
moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2",
which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year,
keeping a threat for locally heavy rainfall each day. Temps
look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of
next week.

The upper low lifts out late Wednesday with short wave ridging
briefly building in late in the week bringing broad subsidence
aloft and a relative minimum in precip chances. Still sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms during peak heating, especially along the
sea/sound breeze boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 715 PM Sat...Showers and thunderstorms continue to push
towards the coast this evening with much of the activity closer
to the coast of Onslow, Carteret and Dare County, with
additional much weaker shower activity in the Coastal Plain.
Expect the thunderstorm and shower threat to gradually weaken
over the next few hours. While we primarily remain VFR, within
any shower or storm expect sub-VFR conditions, erratic and
strong winds, as well as a lightning threat. Once the rain and
thunderstorm threat has ended, latest guidance then suggests a
VFR TAF through the rest of tonight and into Sunday afternoon
for all TAF sites including PGV. Guidance continues to show any
sub-VFR threat well to the north of ENC tonight so have kept
this out of the TAFs on this update. Our next round of
potential thunderstorm activity occurs Sun afternoon and this
will once again bring a threat for sub- VFR conditions, frequent
lightning and strong wind gusts within thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...An unsettled pattern will prevail
through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 325 PM Sat...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt and seas
2-4 ft. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt this evening with
seas building to 3-5 ft, highest south of Hatteras. Could be a
few hours of gusts to 25 kt, mainly across the eastern Pamlico
Sound and waters south of Hatteras. SW winds around 10-20 kt
expected to prevail through Sunday with strongest winds during
afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is
the strongest and could see a few gusts to around 25 kt. Looks
too marginal for a SCA at this time.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to impact the waters
this evening and then again Sun afternoon and evening. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, hail
and frequent lightning.

LONG TERM /Sunday night though Thursday/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to
prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and
evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest
and could see a few gusts to around 25 kt. Another cold front
approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the
gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through Sunday and Monday, then up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday. SW winds expected to relax
Wednesday to around 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK