439
FXUS62 KMHX 262359
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
659 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push offshore tonight. Behind this system
high pressure will briefly build in for tomorrow. A developing low
pressure system and associated cold front will bring unsettled weather
to the region on Thanksgiving and potentially into Friday. Much
colder, but drier, conditions are expected this weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Tue...A weak front will cross eastern NC this
evening, as scattered light rain showers gradually push
offshore. A slightly slower progression of the front is expected
when the front nears the coast this evening which will keep
moisture lingering along the coast. After the cold front exits
off the coast this evening, the threat of showers will be ending
before midnight with a gradual clearing of clouds expected
overnight. Temperatures, initially quite mild in the 50s to low
60s in the evening will cool to around 40 degrees well inland by
daybreak as clearing skies and lessening of winds promote some
radiational cooling. Then closer to the coast there will be a
gradient in low temps depending on how quickly clouds clear
behind the front, with lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s
along the beaches/immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tues...High pressure will briefly build over the
Eastern Seaboard Wed before pushing offshore Wed night. This
will keep winds light across ENC. High temps will warm into the
low to mid 60s with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front will bring rain chances Thursday

- Much cooler and drier weather is forecast this weekend and
  into early next week

Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will briefly
take over on Wed before a deeper upper trough begins to dig into
the Eastern Seaboard on Thurs and Fri. At the surface, a pre-
frontal trough sets up on Thurs out ahead of a deepening low in
the Tennessee River Valley. This low and its associated fronts
will track through the Mid-Atlantic Thurs and Thurs night
bringing the most impactful weather of the period to ENC. Cool
high pressure builds in afterwards resulting in much colder
temps this coming weekend with some areas potentially nearing
record low temps early next week.

Wednesday night..Clouds begin to build in from the west as a
low pressure system and its associated cold front begin to
approach from the west. This will result in an early evening low
Wed night with temps generally remaining in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday and Friday...Our most impactful front of the week
tracks across ENC Thurs into Thurs night before pushing
offshore Fri. This will bring the greatest potential for
widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms. Latest trends
suggest a slightly faster frontal passage with ECWMF being the
fastest solution and the Canadian being slightly slower. Will
note the GFS and its ensembles are currently the slowest with
this frontal passage, not getting the front offshore until Fri
morning which would likely result in a longer duration of
shower and thunderstorm activity, though currently this solution
is being treated as the outlier for now. Will have to continue
to monitor trends over the next few days as we fine tune the
forecast. Kept high end chance to likely PoP`s in place during
the day Thurs across ENC and left Chc PoP`s in place overnight
as widely scattered showers may stick around across the area
well into the evening. PoP`s could increase or decrease Thurs
night as a result of trends the next few days. Otherwise SW`rly
winds become W`rly Thurs afternoon and gust to around 20-25 mph
inland and 30-35 mph along the OBX before winds veer to the NW
and weaken behind the front.

Models continue to paint a high shear/low CAPE environment,
which could result in a stronger storm or two across the area
and as a result ENC has been placed under a marginal risk for
severe weather (level 1 of 5) for Thurs. This threat will
continue to be monitored for increases or decreases in severe
potential but this will be tied to how quickly the front moves
across ENC on Thurs. We clear out rapidly from west to east on
Friday as high pressure builds in from the south and west
bringing fair but much cooler conditions to the Eastern
Seaboard. In the post-frontal air mass on Fri, highs will
struggle to get out of the mid to upper 50s with lows in the
30s.

This weekend into early next week...Cool Canadian high pressure
quickly builds into the Eastern Seaboard behind the departing
front this weekend bringing a rather cold airmass over ENC. As a
matter of fact, CPC has highlighted the area to see a greater
than 80% chance of below avg temperatures this weekend into
early next week. We could see low temps dip down into the low
20s at times especially from Sun onwards which would be near
record low temps at several inland locations. Highs will
generally remain in the 40s to low 50s during the day and get
into the 20s across the coastal plain (40s beaches) overnight.
Otherwise mo clear skies and dry weather are forecast into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 7 PM Tue...Mix of VFR and LIFR conditions currently
across the terminals early this evening. Patchy fog has
developed across the coastal plain, behind the precip and ahead
of the approaching front early this evening. Sub- VFR conditions
possible for the next few hours ahead of a cold front. Think
once the front comes through the drier air and increasing N/NE
winds will scour out the fog, though given the low level
moisture it could linger a bit longer. High pressure on Wed will
produce VFR conditions and light winds.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...We start the period out with VFR conditions
and light winds as high pressure ridging over the area gradually
pushes offshore Wednesday night. As we get into Thurs, a cold
front begins to approach the area from the west with this front
currently forecast to track across ENC Thurs night. This front
will be our next best chance at seeing sub-VFR conditions across
the ENC. Rain chances look to peak Thursday into Thursday
evening before gradually ending from west to east late Thursday
night. In addition to this, light winds will become SW and
eventually W`rly on Thurs and gust to around 20 kts in the
afternoon. WInds will ease Thursday night. As we get into Fri
and VFR conditions return to ENC from west to east with winds
becoming NW`rly but remaining light.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 630 PM Tue...Dropped SCAs south of Oregon Inlet. Latest
obs show W-WNW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-5 ft. The flow will
shift to N behind the front this evening at 10-20 kt as high
pressure builds in and should remain just below advisory
thresholds, though could see a brief period of 25 kt gusts.
Seas are forecast to be 3-5 ft overnight in the moderate
northerly flow. Winds will become NE 10-15 kt Wed with seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...High pressure ridge will push offshore Wed
night with a prefrontal trough setting up over the area
overnight. This will increase shower chances as well as allow
winds to become SW`rly at 10-15 kts overnight. By Thursday
morning a cold front will begin approaching tightening the
pressure gradient and resulting in deteriorating boating
conditions. SW`rly winds will increase to 15-25 kts across the
inland sounds and rivers and 20-30 kts along our coastal waters
with gusts up near 30-35 kts at times. IN response to the
elevated winds seas will respond building to 5-8 ft. This will
once again reintroduce SCA`s to much of the area. A brief period
of gales will also be possible especially near the outer
coastal waters near the Gulf Stream. Winds will then ease Thurs
night and become NW`rly as the aforementioned front pushes
offshore and high pressure builds in from the south and west.
10-20 kt NW`rly winds with 20-25 kt gusts and 4-6 ft seas will
be possible Fri and Sat as high pressure settles into the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...JME/CQD/SGK
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK