460
FXUS62 KMHX 180950
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
550 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region today and is forecast to
persist over the area well into next week. A dry cold front will
move through on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 550 AM Friday...

-Dry conditions to persist through next week.

High pressure surface and aloft will build over the Carolinas
today and persist over the area through next week continuing
the very dry conditions we have experienced over the past couple
of weeks. After a chilly start this morning where sheltered
locations dropped into the 30s, a moderating trend is expected
in temperatures beginning today. Forecast highs will near 70
inland under sunny skies with patchy diurnal cumulus and a
light to moderate northerly breeze, especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...Winds will decouple inland resulting in
strong radiational cooling but the low levels will remain too
dry for any impactful fog. Low temps will be closer to
climatological norms with expected lows inland in the low to mid
40s and in the 50s beaches where northerly flow will be strong
enough to keep the low levels mixed overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Ridging becomes centered over the Eastern
Seaboard this weekend and moves little into midweek next week
continuing to bring warming temperatures and continued dry
weather to ENC.

Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure remains quasi-
stationary overhead all the way into mid week. At the surface
high pressure builds over the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic states
and moves little into midweek keeping things dry across ENC with
nerly flow continuing. Will note some offshore showers will be
possible mainly from Mon onwards as a weak coastal trough sets
up but not expecting any precip to move inland, and this
activity should remain over the Gulf Stream if it occurs at all.
Diurnal range will be large as ground temps cont to dry and a
dry atms persists, leading to warm days and cool nights. Low
level thicknesses around 1380M translate to highs 75-80 later
this weekend into mid week, which will be some 5+ degrees above
climo. Lows will be near climo.

Thursday...Next cold front is progged to move through the
region, though appears to be moisture-starved and will move
through on the dry side, with temps being knocked back down to
near normal for late Oct.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 550 AM Friday...

 - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs

High pressure will build into eastern NC through tonight,
leading to mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. There
still appears to be some brief potential for shallow, light fog
inland late tonight. However, the risk of impactful fog still
appears very low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...VFR mostly SKC with a steady nerly breeze as
high pressure will be anchored to the west and north of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 550 AM Friday...

 - Elevated winds and seas continue

SCA`s are in effect for the sounds and coastal waters. The
recent decrease in gusty northerly winds to 10-20 kt that began
overnight will persist this morning, then winds are forecast to
increase again to 15-25g30 kt this afternoon into tonight.
Dangerous seas of 10-13 ft will continue today and tonight.


LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri... Will have SCA`s through Monday across the
coastal waters before winds finally ease the beginning of next
week as the pressure gradient relaxes with high pressure
building closer to ENC. Seas will be dangerously large and build
to to 7-12 ft through Sat, with highest seas acrs the ctrl
waters. South of Ocracoke seas will be a little bit lower in the
5-8 ft range.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM Fri...The combination of persistent Nerly winds
and King tides are forecast to result in minor to locally
moderate oceanside coastal flooding issues, peaking with this
morning`s and Sat morning`s high tide cycles. Have cancelled the
advisory for the soundside zones, as water levels have dropped
quite a bit with lack of rain over the last several weeks, and
winds not being strong enough to drive water levels into the
advisory range.

Overall expecting 1 to 2 ft for the oceanside, particularly
Hatteras Island where the combination of highest wave action of
8+ ft and long period swells leads to ocean overwash where dune
structures are compromised. The High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for areas north of Cape Hatteras due to these high
breaking waves.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196-
     203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX