149
FXUS62 KMHX 020744
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
344 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Area of low pressure develops and travels slowly NEward along
cold front to the S today and Sunday before departing to the NE
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will build in from the
north behind the stalled front through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 0300 Saturday...Cold front analyzed passing S of the SC/GA
border extending NE out over the oceanic side of GStream.
Showers/storms will tend to diminish in coverage and intensity
from NW to SE, though some bouts of heavier rain could persist
into the early morning hours for areas E of HWY17 and S of
HWY70, especially for areas Downeast and portions of the OBX
towards Hatt. Midlevel shortwave almost directly over the office
will continue to eject Eward off the coast. This shortwave will
be the impetus for the development of a low pressure system
along the front to the S. This low will slowly deepen while
working NEward through today and tonight. This will bring deep
layer Nerly flow and eventual drying of the column. Some light
rain showers and/or drizzle can be expected especially through
the first half of the day inland with drier air continuing to
intrude from N to S. Along the Crystal Coast, stronger
convection is expected the first half of the day as the low
develops. PWATs will remain AoB 2.25in over this area for a
longer period, keeping heavy rain chances in play through the
morning hours, which also means localized flooding remains a
concern here until the drying trend can kick off as the low
offshore deepens while drifting toward Cape Lookout`s latitude,
pulling moisture away from the area. Tds dropping through the
60s and shower chances diminishing through the afternoon hours.
Because of this, have aggressively trimmed inland PoPs from
previous forecast with vast majority of HiRes suite pushing PoPs
offshore through the period. Have a dry land forecast by sunset
tonight. Temps/RH`s much more pleasant with the drying air mass
and we finally have a respite from the oppressively hot and
humid air mass of late. Highs will generally top out in the low
80s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0330 Saturday...Low offshore continues to slowly inch
NEward whilst becoming more organized. Center of the circ is
expected to remain outside of 100nm offshore, working from Cape
to Cape overnight. NEerly breeze persists with skies becoming
almost completely clear over Coastal Plain through the
overnight due to further drying of the column (PWATs drop from
their peak of around 2.5in to less than 1.5in). Tds continue to
fall through the period, maybe even see some high 50s for far
Nern inland locales, providing crisp (for this time of year)
MinTs in the mid 60s inland, mid 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Extended period of relief from the recent stretch of dangerous
heat

A baroclinic zone is forecast to remain parked off the coast of the
Southeast U.S. through much of next week, its movement being slowed
by ridging out over the SW Atlantic. Eventually, an upper level
trough is forecast to shift east out of the Central Plains, which
should then cause the frontal boundary to lift back north as a warm
front late in the week.

For much of the week, then, this pattern will lead to persistent
northeasterly, onshore flow across the coastal Carolinas. This flow
will help to knock down temperatures and dewpoints, especially
through about mid-week. This should equate to highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s (inland) and 70s (coast). This will provide a much-
deserved break from the dangerous heat and humidity that we have
seen over the past 7-10 days. Late next week, the humidity will
begin to creep back up as the flow becomes more southerly.

One of the primary forecast challenges through next week will be
daily precipitation chances. Guidance suggests multiple areas of low
pressure will develop along the stalled frontal boundary at times
through next week. On the NW periphery of any low, there may be
areas of enhanced low-level convergence that develop, favoring the
development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Each
day this will probably be dependent on where any low develops and
how close to the coast it tracks. Guidance differ on the track of
any low development, as well as where the best lift and moisture
will reside. In light of this, blended guidance shows about a 30-50%
chance of showers each day. We`ll continue to try to refine which
day, or days, may have a higher chance than others, but the key
message at this point is that most days next week carry at least a
low to moderate risk of showers and thunderstorms, with the highest
chance along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0130 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats expected through the
overnight with IFR likely. SFC cold front has pushed S of the
FA with the upper level front lagging somewhat behind it. SHRA
and TSRA possible through the period with waning chances inland
through the day SAT. Expected subVFR CIGs to linger into the
morning hours before beginning to lift and scatter out by the
afternoon. The NEerly breezes gust upwards around 20 kt on Sat
as area of low pressure develops and slowly inches NEward along
the boundary, keeping the gradient pinched through the weekend.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wed/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A moist and weakly unstable northeasterly flow appears supportive of
isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA throughout much of the extended
period. This will also support periods of sub VFR conditions,
especially CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Extended period of SCA conditions through the weekend and into
early next week

Low pressure is forecast to develop along a stalled frontal boundary
offshore this morning, and will combine with strong high pressure
over the Northeast U.S. to produce moderately strong northeasterly
winds and elevated seas through tonight and beyond. Current
observations this morning show northeasterly winds of 15-25kt for
most waters, with higher gusts. Seas are currently 3-6ft. Winds and
seas will continue to build some as low pressure deepens offshore.
This is expected to produce a period of 20-30kt winds and seas as
high as 6-8 ft. Occasional gusts to 35kt appear likely given the
anomalously strong gradient forecast to develop. We`ll continue with
strongly-worded SCAs, but continue to re-evaluate conditions to see
if a short fused Gale Warning is needed for any waters. In addition
to the wind and sea impacts, widespread thunderstorm activity is
expected this morning, especially for the central and southern
waters. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing enhanced wind
gusts and waterspouts.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wed/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

An extended period of elevated winds and seas is expected into early
next week thanks to low pressure offshore and a strong surface high
over the Northeast U.S. The stronger than normal gradient (for this
time of year) appears supportive of high-end SCA and marginal Gale
conditions. Some adjustments to the SCAs were made to reflect an
increase in wind guidance on Sunday. This potentially extends the
SCA impacts for the inland rivers and sounds through Sunday
afternoon. Occasional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected,
especially for the central and southern waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-135-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB