882
FXUS62 KMHX 070710
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
210 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area tonight, then push
offshore Friday. A weak disturbance moves across the area Friday
into Friday night which may bring a few showers along the
coast. An Arctic front will approach the region Sunday bringing
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A much colder
airmass builds into the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 12 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Frost Advisory in effect for patchy across the inner coastal plain

High pressure will remain overhead tonight, supporting clear skies
and light winds. This radiational cooling regime will send lows into
the mid-30s across the coastal plain where patchy frost is possible.
Along the coast, lows will range from the mid- 40s to low-50s.

Later today, high pressure will slide offshore and winds will veer
from southeast to southerly through the day. Mid-level heights will
increase, which will support warmer max temps in the low-70s today.
The majority of the CWA will remain dry today, but an isolated
shower will be possible along the Outer Banks this afternoon/evening
as a weakening coastal trough lifts across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 12:15 AM Friday...

Key Messages:
- A few coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms possible

The combination of greater cloud cover and winds continuing to veer
to the southwest will support warmer overnight lows ranging from the
mid-50s to low-60s. A few coastal showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will remain possible tonight, especially along the
Outer Banks and near the Gulf Stream.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12:45 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday
   ahead of a strong cold front

 - An Arctic front will push across the area Sunday night with
   much colder temperatures early next week. Near or below
   freezing temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday nights

Weekend...Saturday and Sunday will be unseasonably warm with highs
in the mid- to upper-70s, but this will be short lived. An upper
trough will dig across the central CONUS this weekend with temps
tanking in the wake of its attendant Arctic front. A pre-frontal
trough will increase PoPs starting Saturday night and peak Sunday
night/early Monday with the FROPA. Thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of and along the front with the main concern being strong wind
gusts.

Monday - Tuesday...The coldest airmass of the season will settle in
at the beginning of the week with highs ranging from the mid-50s to
low-60s on Monday and upper-40s to low-50s on Tuesday. Monday night
will be the coldest of the period with sub-freezing lows across the
coastal plain and near 40 at the beaches. Tuesday night will be just
a couple of degrees warmer but sub-freezing temps are still possible
across the coastal plain.

Wednesday - Thursday...High pressure will be centered across the
southeast CONUS midweek and southwest winds will warm temps back
into the low- to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Fri...VFR conditions are present early this morning
across the airspace with high pressure overhead. Clear skies will
persist through around sunrise before clouds begin to increase from
the south as a weak disturbance moves along the coast with high
pressure sliding offshore. Sky coverage should remain scattered
along the coastal plain, but a period of broken ceilings are likely
along and east of US 17. Cloud bases will be close to MVFR levels,
ranging from 3000-4000 ft. Some MVFR conditions are possible for
terminals along the coast, including KEWN and KOAJ, however
confidence is not high enough in occuring to put in the TAF. Skies
will clear this evening with VFR conditions expected to continue
overnight.

Outlook: Increasing clouds and moisture expected late this weekend
with an approaching frontal system, with potential for ocnl sub VFR
in showers and some embedded tstorms. Best chance for any thunder is
on Sunday just ahead of arctic cold front. Much drier conditions
build in for early next week, with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1:30 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - The potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions returns
   late Sunday becoming likely Monday behind a strong cold
   front.

 - A period of Gale Force conditions possible Monday night into Tuesday

High pressure will shift offshore later today with 10-15 kt winds
veering to the SW and increasing to 15-20 kt by tonight as a
shortwave tightens the gradient. A few gusts to 25 kt will possible
across the central waters and seas will build to 3-5 ft. Winds will
then relax to 10-15 kt until they increase yet again ahead of a
strong Arctic front that will approach the area on Sunday. SW winds
will increase to 15-25 kt on Sunday and then veer to the NW with the
FROPA late Sunday/early Monday. NW winds will increase through the
day Monday, peaking Monday night at 30-35 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt.
WNW winds will relax to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Tuesday. Seas
will build from 2-3 ft on Sunday to 5-9 ft early Tuesday, gradually
subsiding to 4-6 ft by Tuesday night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-079-
     091.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...OJC