971
FXUS62 KMHX 260732
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of dangerous heat and humidity will persist
across ENC over the next several days with potential record
breaking highs this weekend. This notable heat wave is expected
to bring major to extreme heat related impacts to ENC through
mid-next week. Occasional scattered afternoon storms will be
possible through mid week before a cold front brings more
widespread precipitation late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Potentially record breaking high temperatures this afternoon

 - Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory in effect for all of
   ENC for heat indices of 105-115F

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon

A strong upper ridge will remain centered over the southeastern US
today with W/NW flow supporting subsidence aloft. At the surface, a
weak backdoor cold front will sink south from VA this afternoon.

Oppressive heat and humidity will continue today with temps forecast
to reach nearly 100 degrees across the coastal plain and the low-90s
along the OBX. These temps may be record breaking for several
locations across ENC (see CLIMATE section below). Pairing these
stifling temps with dewpoints in the mid- to upper-70s will generate
dangerous heat indices this afternoon ranging from 105-115 degrees.
An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect starting at 11 AM this
morning for nearly all of ENC. With slightly lower temps and
dewpoints expected for Hatteras Island, the Northern Outer Banks,
and Ocracoke Island, a Heat Advisory will be in effect starting at
the same time. If you`re planning to partake in outdoor work or
recreation, protect yourself and loved ones from the heat. Drink
plenty of water, take frequent breaks, and know the signs of heat
illness. Do not leave children or pets in unattended vehicles, and
check on those most vulnerable to heat impacts.

Minor and short-lived breaks from the heat will be possible for some
areas this afternoon with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. The main forcing mechanisms for the day will be the
sea/river/sound breezes and the backdoor cold front, but boundary
convergence, outflows, and cold pools may support additional
convective development. Moisture will be plentiful with impressive
PWATs ranging from 2-2.25"+, which is approaching the climatological
daily max for ENC (2.5"). The combination of this surplus of
moisture and scorching temps will generate MLCAPE of 1000-2000+
J/kg.

Working against deep updraft development will be the dry air above
850 mb. However, this dry air may help support some wet microbursts
if any stronger updrafts are able to flourish. Although the CAMs are
only showing isolated to widely scattered coverage, any thunderstorm
that develops will reside within an environment conducive of
supporting gusty winds and torrential rainfall. HREF LPMM QPF shows
roughly 1-2"+ east of Highway 17, but rainfall totals of this amount
are expected to be isolated at best. Relatively unimpressive shear
will keep the severe threat low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2:50 AM Saturday...

Sunset will bring decreasing coverage in showers and
thunderstorms but not much relief from the heat with overnight
lows expected to barely drop below 80 degrees. Light winds and
clearing skies may support fog development late tomorrow night,
especially for those areas that receive rainfall today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

 - Dangerous heatwave to bring heat indices of 105-115 to ENC
   through the middle of next week, with major to extreme heat
   related impacts and the potential for record to near-record
   highs through Monday.

Sunday: Upper-level ridge peaks late this weekend, along with an
inc in sfc TD`s. A combination of record to near- record highs
are possible (see Climate section of AFD for more details), and
with the oppressive dewpoints will couple to produce widespread
heat indices of 110-115, potentially a bit higher. Extreme heat
related heat impacts occur with these values. Heat impacts will
be exacerbated by warm overnight lows (temps forecast to only
drop to the upper 70s interior, low 80s beaches including the
OBX, which will provide little overnight relief. Heat headlines
cont with Extreme Heat Warning inland and heat adv for the OBX
zones. If you plan to be outside this weekend, make sure to
take frequent breaks to cool off and stay hydrated. Also make
sure to check up on relatives and neighbors (especially those
with greater vulnerability to heat impacts), and do not leave
children or pets in unattended vehicles!

Regarding precip, while subsidence still looks to be in place
Sunday, some models depict slightly greater coverage of
thunderstorms during the afternoon to early evening. Where
storms develop, heavy rain rates with PWATs of ~2", and drier
low and mid- level air look to yield increased DCAPE of
1000-1200 J/kg. While meager shear will preclude a greater
severe threat, thunderstorms that form could be capable of
producing an isolated severe wind gust or two due to a wet
microburst environment. The storms appear to develop later in
the day, so until storms develop, the dangerous heat and
humidity will be the main story.

Monday through Wednesday: Upper-level ridge is forecast to
begin sliding westward early next week, but oppressive heat and
humidity look to persist into the middle part of the work week.
Highs are forecast to remain in the mid to perhaps upper 90s
with heat indices of 105-110 forecast to linger through
Wednesday. While temps/heat indices may be marginally cooler,
HeatRisk shows major to extreme heat impacts lingering through
mid-week given the prolonged period of unusually high heat and
humidity and lack of overnight relief. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the sea breeze and lee
trough each afternoon.

Thursday through Friday: Better chances for rain and a cool
down look to be on the horizon late this coming week as a
potential cold front looks to drop southward through ENC,
bringing increased shower/storm chances and cooler temps towards
the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Night/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Light westerly winds and SKC will give way to diurnal cu and
variable winds as a backdoor cold front sinks south from VA.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon, potentially causing gusty winds and
torrential rain and bringing the best chance for sub-VFR CIGs
and VIS of the period. Scattered post-front high clouds will
linger into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Somewhat higher chance of diurnal showers and
storms late in the day Sunday. Fog potential early morning
where rain does fall. Winds light with high pressure nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3:05 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...
- Benign boating conditions through Saturday

The period starts with 10-15 kt southwesterly winds and 2-3 ft seas.
As a weak backdoor cold front sinks south through the area today,
winds will veer to the north. South of the front, winds will remain
southwesterly.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Generally southwest winds of 5-15 knots and
seas of 2-3 feet through mid week, with iso to sct late day to
early evening showers/storms possible just inland from the
coastal waters along the seabreeze. North of Cape Hatteras, a
nrly component to the wind through early next week but speeds
will remain light.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dangerous heat wave will overspread ENC this weekend into at
least early next week. Record or near record highs are expected.

Record High temps for 07/26 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        98/1949   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   93/1949   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/2005   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   94/1999   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         96/2010   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1968   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 07/27 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       100/1940   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2020   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2005   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   98/1949   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        100/2005   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    99/1981   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 07/28 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       100/1936   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/1936   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2016   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2005   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        102/2005   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    99/2010   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
     199.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/TL
MARINE...OJC/TL
CLIMATE...MHX