757
FXUS62 KMHX 060229
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1029 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across ENC tonight and push offshore on
Friday bringing widespread rainfall to ENC tonight. A cold
front will then move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled
weather will continue through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2215 Thursday...Unsettled day winds to a close through the
overnight with weak low pressure working through the FA. Low`s
associated warm front bowing Eward over the Crystal Coast and
Cape Lookout. With PWAT`s generally around 2+ inches some
periods of heavy rain are still possible tonight but the areal
coverage of this possibility has drastically shrunk now; best
chance along the Crystal Coast and OBX where moisture
convergence is greatest along and near the warm front. Flooding
threat has ended for the most part. See HYDRO section for more
information. As we get later into tonight expect shower and
thunderstorm chances to quickly decrease from west to east as
the low gradually pushes offshore with its fronts. Have sped
this process up with the latest update as well as cutting down
on cloud coverage quicker. Lows tonight get into the upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 430 PM Thurs... The trend has certainly been our friend
for Fridays forecast. Expect previously mentioned low pressure
system to push offshore in the morning bringing any leftover
shower activity offshore and away from ENC just after daybreak
allowing for skies to clear behind the departing low. With skies
clearing and moisture sticking around ENC, expect instability
to build back up once again on Friday and as the seabreeze gets
started and a weak shortwave pushes overhead Fri afternoon,
could sea a few isolated thunderstorms across the CWA. With this
in mind, have continued to lower PoP`s across the area to SChc
as Hi-Res guidance continues to suggest showers and storms will
be very isolated in nature overall. While we will have
instability across the region, wind shear will remain weak so
not expecting any storm that develops to be particularly strong.
Temps will get into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long
   term.

 - Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and
0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around
1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling across
the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the warmest
day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s along the coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest
shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially
during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a
descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values
around 1.75-2" most days, which is above the 90th percentile for
this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day.
Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday morning/...
As of 1930 Thursday...All TAF sites are currently VFR but this
is only temporary with subVFR CIGs expected through much of the
TAF cycle. Low pressure which is currently located to the west
of the area should gradually lift NE`wards through this evening
and in between all the boundaries and the low this should bring
widespread rain and isolated thunderstorm activity as well as
low clouds to ENC resulting in widespread MVFR/IFR flight cats
due to low level stratus on the backside of the low/behind cold
front. Sub VFR flight cats remain in place into Fri morning
before scattering out. Southerly winds around 10 kts will
briefly become light ad variable tonight before shifting to a SW
and then W`rly direction overnight into Fri morning at about
5-10 kts. SChc afternoon showers as weak shortwave traverses the
FA, best chance along seabreeze corridor (OAJ/EWN).

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Monday/...
As of 5 AM Thursday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through
much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the region. There
will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each
day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 2215 Thursday...

### --- Update --- ### Diamond (41025) reported 6ft seas so will
allow existing SCAs to continue as scheduled. Strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight, especially
along warm front currently located around Lookout, which will
slowly lift Nward as low tracks NEward through the overnight.
--- ###

Previous Disco as of 140 PM Thurs...No significant changes to
the forecast as widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms and
10-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kts remain possible across
our waters this evening and tonight as a low pressure system
gradually pushes across the area. As the low passes late
tonight, 15-20 kt winds will veer to the southwest. 2-4 ft seas
will respond by build to 4-6 ft south of Cape Hatteras, and 3-5
ft north of Cape Hatteras. This should allow for a brief period
of low end SCA conditions to develop mainly south of Cape
Hatteras with any SCA that develops will fall below SCA
conditions by daybreak at the latest. Stronger thunderstorms
will also have the potential to produce gusty winds and a brief
waterspout. Low pushes offshore on Fri morning allowing the
pressure gradient to quickly relax and for winds to ease down to
10-15 kts varying from SW south of Cape Hatteras to NW north of
Cape Hatteras with seas falling to 3-5 ft across all our
coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 515 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will pull away
from the area Friday. Marginal SCA conditions south of Cape
Hatteras early Friday morning but should be gradually improving
through the day. A front approaches the waters Saturday but
stalls just inland from the coast before lifting to the north.
SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft expected to prevail
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 2230 Thursday...Flooding threat has ended for inland
areas. If any flooding were to occur overnight, it would be
along the immediate coast and OBX, and would have very limited
impacts, i.e. nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX