Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
637 FXUS62 KMHX 070946 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 546 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm conditions are expected through Wednesday. A cold front tracks across the region late Wednesday with showers and breezy conditions. High pressure builds to the north behind the stalled cold front to end the work week, while a coastal storm forms off the coast this weekend. King Tides are expected through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 350 AM Tue...Sfc high pressure will remain in control, gradually sliding offshore, while upper ridging continues over the SE US. Winds will continue to grad veer becoming SE. Increasing moisture could lead to isolated coastal showers, but at this time kept rain chances below 20% as probs are very low. Low lvl thickness values and SE flow support temps above climo with highs in the low/mid 80s interior to near 80 coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM Tue...Very warm conditions are expected tonight as flow cont to veer around to the south and moisture inc in advance of a cold front. Late tonight, a prefrontal trough will skirt the coast, esp the Crystal Coast area, and bring a better chance of showers. Have inc rain chances to 30% here, though may need to be adjusted upwards as HREF probs are closer to 40-60%. Most other areas will see rain chances of 20% or lower. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Tuesday...By the middle of this week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers and maybe even one or two thunderstorms across the region. Instability is lacking, but the strong forcing may be enough to overcome the lack of instability for isolated weak thunderstorm formation. Progressive nature of showers ahead of the front will prevent any flooding concerns. Behind this cold front, high pressure builds in and strong pressure gradient sets up. This will result in gusty NE winds, highest over coastal zones. The gusty winds and higher seas paired with king tides would bring coastal flooding concerns. See Coastal Flooding section for more information. Front stalls offshore near the gulf stream after passing through Thursday. Upper level trough then moves through over the weekend, which will likely spin up a coastal low along this stalled front this weekend. Warm waters and lack of steering flow may allow the forecasted coastal low to sit over warm offshore waters and strengthen rapidly. Confidence is increasing in a coastal low forming, but strength, location, and impacts are still up in the air. See Coastal Flooding section for possible impact scenarios from this coastal low. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Tue...IFR/LIFR conditions in fog have formed at KEWN/KPGV/KISO. Calm to light winds through early morning will keep the fog threat through around 13Z. Light erly winds veer around to SE to S late today. Some showers may migrate onshore near the southern coast later tonight, with best chances of receiving rain at KEWN. Fog and low stratus possible again tonight, esp coastal plain counties. LONG TERM /Wed through Saturday/... As of 5 AM Tuesday...Wednesday winds becoming southeasterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front may bring scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Wednesday PM, temporarily lowering cigs and vis. Behind this front, gusty NE winds are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in. Friday into Saturday a coastal low is likely to develop off the SE coast, bringing gusty winds. Other impacts like cigs, and rain/tstorm chances depend on the location of the low, which is still uncertain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 4 AM Tue...High pressure will remain in control through Wed. Winds will respond by grad veering, becoming E-SE today and then south by this evening, though remain in the 5-15 kt range. Seas will generally be in the 2-4 ft range, with some 5 ft sets in the outer waters. LONG TERM /Wed through Saturday/... As of 230 AM Monday...Wednesday PM into early Thursday a cold front moves through, bringing chances of rain ahead of it, and gusty NE winds behind it as high pressure moves in. Current expectation is for NE gusts around 30-40 knots for most marine zones, and chances for seeing gale force gusts have been steadily trending up over the past couple days. Friday into Saturday, coastal low is expected to develop of the SE US coast. This will bring hazardous marine conditions thanks to very gusty winds and dangerous seas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 530 AM Tuesday... King Tides and potential for strong NE flow mid to late next week: This week we enter a king tide cycle, with astronomically high tides. The highest tides are expected Today (10/7) into Saturday (10/11), peaking Thursday. Accounting just for the king tides, minor coastal flooding is expected for typical vulnerable low lying locales. However, there is potential for strong NE wind gusts behind a cold front Thursday and Friday. This would help waves build along the coast, and may also help push some water towards the southern Pamlico Sound and Neuse river. Confidence is increasing on the strength of the winds, and the compounding effects of strong winds, higher seas, and king tides could cause greater impacts for areas with vulnerable dune structures along OBX Thursday and Friday. However, shorter wave periods Thursday and Friday will limit the power behind the waves. This weekend, a deep upper level trough moves through the eastern US, which will help spin up a coastal low offshore this weekend thanks to the baroclinicity on the edge of the warm Gulf Stream waters. While there is variation in strength, location, and impacts for ENC, at the very least this coastal low will bring elevated seas and winds. This, paired with higher than normal tides (although King Tides will have abated by then) could bring continuing coastal impacts (ocean and soundside) on top of any impacts mentioned Thursday-Friday. Of note, wave periods are expected to be higher this weekend, which would increase the power of the waves. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...TL/RJ MARINE...TL/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX