526
FXUS62 KMHX 170644
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
244 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually sink S down the East Coast and
slowly slide offshore starting tonight. The next cold front
crosses the area late this weekend into Monday, which will
bring the next chance of rain. Behind this front mild high
pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 0215 Friday...Decoupled winds inland and crystal clear
skies have led to strong RadCooling. KDPL has already slipped
into the upper 30s, so have adjusted MinTs down a few more
degrees. Dry conditions will preclude any threat of fog
development overnight.

Conditions will be chilly to start the day, with temperatures
expected to be hovering in the low-to-mid 40s around 8 AM. A
cool and dry airmass will remain in place, allowing temperatures
to climb only to the mid 60s under sunny skies. Breezy
northerly winds will continue, but gradually relax through the
day as center of the high sinks Sward into the Carolinas. Upper
level cloud coverage increases from SW to NE around sunset.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0220 Friday...Upper low departs further out to sea,
allowing eroding ridge to drift Eward over the FA ahead of the
next trough aloft to arrive latter half of this weekend. At the
SFC, high pressure center slowly drifts S to be almost directly
over Wilmington. Temps will quickly fall through the first half
of the night, though the upper level clouds will dampen this
cooling, making it not strong as Thurs night. Winds through much
of the column back to become more Werly and eventually SWerly by
the early morning, though SFC is expected to remain decoupled
until sunrise. MinTs a few degrees warmer than Thurs night/Fri
morning, low to mid40s inland, mid to upper 50s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages...

- High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend
  with above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through
  Monday morning as a cold front moves through

- Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week

High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic
Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound
to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a
return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The
next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday morning as a quick moving and likely moisture-starved
front moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high
pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 0130 Friday...Very benign flying conditions over the next
24 hours as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends
Sward across the Carolinas under amplified mid- level ridging.
Airmass is very dry at almost all levels and skies will remain
clear tonight. Thus, despite dew point depressions cratering
towards zero inland no fog is expected tonight. With that said,
would not be shocked to see the usual suspects where moisture
pools and sensors are close to warmer waters like EWN and PGV to
report decreased VIS due to fog. Have included 6sm MIFG to show
potential for the ditch fog development in the early morning
hours, but can not justify any flight cat changes despite what
obs may say. OBX terminals will be breezier with pinched
pressure gradient keeping north winds at 15-20 kt.

VFR flight cats through the day today, although winds will begin
weakening as high centers itself overhead. Gustier conditions
most likely closer to sounds and seas with gusts 15-20 kt.
Uptick in high clouds this evening as moisture is pulled Nward
ahead of a large and complex mid- level low over the WCONUS.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring
scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday morning,
and there could be some brief flying restrictions as a result.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 0240 Friday...Steady Nerly breeze persists across area
waters with winds 10-15G20-25kt inside, 15-20G25-30kt outside.
SCAs remain in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo,
Neuse, and Bay Rivers. Winds relax through the day as SFC high
settles overhead, allowing SCAs to begin stepping down starting
this morning.

Seas 6-9ft across the coastal waters @ 9-10sec Cape Hatt S,
7-8sec N. South of Lookout, nearshore waters remain somewhat
sheltered from northerly winds, with waves of 3-5 feet. Seas
gradually lay down as winds relax, but lingering 6-footers will
lead to SCAs persisting until just after midnight tonight for
the Nern coastal waters. Have ended extending central waters SCA
into early next week due to 6+ft seas remaining in the forecast
over outer waters.


LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Elevated seas remain across the coastal waters on Saturday
   due to an increase in long period swell

 - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected
   Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front


Winds weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually
come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday
morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds
peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions
expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW
Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of
the W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday.

Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer
waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain.
Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell
arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North
Atlantic. Seas will likely increase to 5-7 ft for much of the
marine waters. By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds
increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft
Monday, and 3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Fri...Persistent strong northerly winds will
continue through late today keeping the potential for minor
coastal flooding in the forecast.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158-230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX