382
FXUS62 KMHX 250309
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1009 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Monday. A cold front with
limited moisture moves through on Tuesday, followed by the
potential for a stronger cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Sunday...Flat ridging aloft and sfc high pressure
build into the area tonight. Temperatures continue to cool a bit
more rapidly than initially forecast, and nudged hourly Ts down
further although forecast lows still appear reasonable. Expect
low temps in the upper 30s to around 40 inland. A bit more
mixing along the coast will keep temps a little warmer with lows
in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...High pressure axis centered across the area
Monday morning will slide offshore in the afternoon as a mid
level shortwave and attendant cold front approach from the west.
Mainly sunny skies will prevail with light southerly winds
continuing to bring a warming trend. Low level thicknesses
increase about 10m over today and expect highs in the upper 60s
to around 70 inland and mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:30 AM Sunday...

- Warming trend through Tuesday

- Multiple fronts will bring rain chances Tuesday, Thursday, &
  Friday

Broad upper ridging will continue overspreading the eastern
U.S. on Monday while an upper low will dig across the northern
plains. This trough will become negatively tilted as it moves
across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. The surface low
associated with this trough will stay well to our north but its
attendant cold front will drag across ENC on Tuesday afternoon.
Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will briefly
take over on Wednesday before a pre-frontal trough sets up on
Thursday. The strongest front of the period will cross ENC late
Thursday night/early Friday morning with cooler high pressure
building in afterwards.

Tuesday...Tuesday will host the warmest temps of the week ahead
of a fairly moisture starved cold front. Most places will be
around 70. The best chances for rain will be east of Highway 17
in the afternoon and late evening, but showers look light and
scattered at best. Our next shot of cold air will be in this
post-frontal air mass, which will send overnight lows back into
the 30s across the coastal plain.

Wednesday...High pressure will briefly resume on Wednesday.
Temps will rebound to the low to mid 60s except along the NOBX
where N to NE flow will keep temps a few degrees cooler in the
upper 50s.

Thursday - Friday...The pattern becomes more active with higher
confidence of showers towards the end of the week. A pre-
frontal trough will set up across ENC and PoPs will increase
through Thursday ahead of the FROPA, which should cross ENC late
Thursday night/early Friday morning. Models are currently
painting a high shear/low CAPE environment, so this will
continue to be monitored for severe potential. In the post-
frontal air mass on Friday, highs will struggle to reach 60.

Saturday...Conditions will be dry and brisk with highs in the
40s and lows in the 20s across the coastal plain (40s beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 635 PM Sunday...High pressure will migrate across rtes
through Monday bringing pred VFR conditions and light W to SW
winds. Skies will be mostly clear with passing cirrus at times.
Good radiational cooling conditions develop night with light
winds and clear skies. With a touch more moisture in the low
levels, shallow fog potential remains on the table for
susceptible terminals although probability remains under 20%.

Thin cirri expected tomorrow after sunrise with light
southwesterly winds at around 5 kt.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions persist
through mid-week with chances for sub-VFR conditions increasing
towards late week. On Tuesday, winds will veer to the NW and
increase to 10-15 kt as a cold front crosses the area. This cold
front will introduce a slight chance of showers, which could
result in some periods of sub-VFR ceilings. Winds will continue
to turn to the NE on Wednesday and relax to around 5 kt. By
Thursday, winds will return to the SW and increase to 10-15 kt
as a pre-frontal trough sets up and reintroduce rain chances.
Chances for rain will peak Thursday night with the passage of a
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...High pressure will migrate across the
waters through the short term. SW winds around 15 kt or less
into this evening will veer to Wly overnight as a trough pushes
south to near the NC/VA border by around 12Z Monday. The trough
lifts back north Monday morning with winds diminishing to around
10 kt or less, then backs to SW and increases to 10-15 kt late
in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas will
be around 2-3 ft through the short term with the exception of
the southern and central outer waters where to around 4 ft will
possible tonight.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Sunday...Conditions will flirt with SCA
conditions on Tuesday due to a passing cold front, which will
increase winds to 20-25 kt and 4-5 ft seas. Winds and seas will
relax on Wednesday but rebound to SCA conditions on Thursday
(mainly south of Cape Hatteras). A tightened gradient along a
pre- frontal trough and ahead of an approaching cold front will
support increasing winds through Thursday with winds peaking
overnight at 20-25kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas will build
to 5-7 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/MS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC