646
FXUS62 KMHX 081731
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1231 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move south through the area today.
High pressure rebuilds offshore this weekend, with a cold front
moving through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

 - Cold front to bring a chance of showers this afternoon and
   early evening south of HWY 70

Satellite and surface obs show a cold front stretched west to
east across southern and eastern NC this afternoon. Locally, the
front has just reached areas from Kinston east through Hatteras
Island. The front will continue to progress south, aided by an
upper level wave moving off the NRN Mid-Atlantic Coast. The
strongest forcing with that wave will remain well north of ENC,
and this should keep the cold front`s forward progression slower
through this evening.

The front will be favorably timed with afternoon
heating/destabilization, which continues to appear supportive of
isolated to scattered showers. Instability is forecast to be on
the weak side (250-500j/kg MLCAPE), and forecast soundings show
a notable warm layer aloft, supporting skinny CAPE profiles. In
light of this, it`s going to be hard to get deep convection
along the front, which should keep the risk of thunderstorms on
the low side. I`ll continue to keep the chance of thunderstorms
below 15%. Of note, recent short-term guidance has trended lower
with the chance of showers today. However, radar shows showers
already trying to develop south of HWY 70, and all of the above
supports a modest chance, so no changes are planned to the risk
of showers through this evening.

Weak cold air advection and a drying airmass will support
noticeably cooler temps tonight compared to the past several
nights. Interestingly enough, though, lows tonight are still
expected to be above normal thanks to the lack of stronger CAA,
and continued "warm" low-level thicknesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

 - Monitoring fire weather concerns Saturday

 - Noticeably cooler and drier Saturday

A noticeably drier and cooler post-frontal airmass will settle
into ENC on Saturday. While temps will feel cooler, the actual
values will be close to normal for this time of year. It will
simply feel cooler because of how anomalously warm it has been
lately. Afternoon mixing and a modest pressure gradient will
support breezy winds from mid-morning into the afternoon hours.
The breeziness will add to the coolness of the day. Please see
the "Fire Weather" section of the AFD below for additional
details on the fire concerns for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a
weakening upper low lifts across the Great Lakes with the
attendant cold approaching from the northwest. This system may
tap into tropical moisture from Hurricane Rafael in the southern
Gulf of Mexico but there remains considerable uncertainty with
the timing and track of both the tropical system and the larger
scale system lifting north of the area. At this time best precip
chances appear to be late Sunday night into Monday. Southerly
return flow will warm temps Sunday and Monday with highs
expected in the low to mid 70s.

The front is currently progged to push trough the area Monday
night with high pressure building in from the north Tuesday and
Wednesday and an upper ridge building in from the west. Dry
weather with prevail with NE flow bringing a slight cool down
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precip chances
increase Thursday as another shortwave through digs into the
eastern CONUS with the attendant cold front approaches from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

 - Cold front to bring wind shift, a chance of SHRA, and a risk
   of MVFR CIGs through this evening

 - Gusty north winds expected on Saturday

A cold front will progress slowly south through eastern NC this
afternoon and evening, pushing off the southern coast by
Midnight. Along the front, a stripe of sub-VFR CIGs has been
common, and this risk is expected to last into the afternoon as
the front moves through. Additionally, as the front encounters a
moist and slightly unstable airmass south of HWY 70, there will
be an increased risk of SHRA. An isolated TSRA cannot be ruled
out, but the risk appears too low (<20% chance) to mention in
the TAFs. CIGs should quickly clear out as a deep layer of dry
air advects into the area behind the front this evening and
tonight. Afternoon cumulus clouds are then possible on Saturday,
but CIGs are not expected. A tightening pressure gradient plus
daytime mixing will support a period of gusty winds on Saturday
(20kt+).

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...High pressure slides offshore Sunday with
pred VFR conditions expected. Another cold front approaches
early next week with precip chances increasing Sunday night and
Monday with sub-VFR conditions possible. The front is progged to
push through Monday night pred VFR conditions returning
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Friday...Latest obs show light SSW winds 5-10 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Light winds will continue this morning ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front will slowly push across
the waters Friday with light winds becoming N around 5-15 kt and
seas 2-4 ft. Main hazard across the waters will be the
potential for dense fog development this morning, mainly across
the Pamlico Sound, as well as the central and southern waters.
Post frontal winds pick up Friday night as the high pressure
builds in and the pressure gradient tightens. This will result
in hazardous marine conditions and a suite of Small Craft
Advisories for winds and seas will be in effect into the long
term for all waters except for the inland rivers.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...High pressure builds in from the north on
Saturday with NE winds around 15-25 kt with gust to 30 kt and
seas building up to 4-7 ft, locally up to 8 ft across the outer
central waters. Wind peak Saturday morning then begin to slowly
diminish from north to south through the afternoon, and more so
overnight Saturday night. SCA continues for all but the inland
rivers for much of Saturday, then conditions drop below SCA
overnight Saturday night to around mid day Sunday.

The high migrates offshore Sunday with Ely winds around 10 kt
or less veering to SE and S throughout the day. Gradients
tighten Sunday night and Monday ahead of the next cold front
approaching with sly winds increasing to 10-15 kt Sunday,
becoming SW 10-20 kt on Monday and seas around 3-5 ft. The front
pushes across the area Monday night with winds becoming Nly by
Tuesday morning and will increase to 15-20 kt with higher gusts
late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

 - Elevated fire concerns Saturday

A noticeably drier airmass (RHs in the 30s and 40s percent)
will move into ENC later tonight through Saturday, and will
overlap with breezy northeast winds (10-15 mph, gusts to 20+
mph). At face value, this appears supportive of elevated fire
concerns. Of note, the lack of a widespread, killing freeze plus
the recent stretch of warm weather, has allowed fine fuels to
remain relatively green for the time of year. In collaboration
with the Forest Service, this should help offset the fire danger
on Saturday, despite the breezy and dry conditions expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST
     Saturday night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...SK/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...MHX