383
FXUS62 KMHX 031957
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
257 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue over the area from the north through
tomorrow before another low pressure system impacts the region
Friday morning into Saturday. A front will stall off the southern
NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- There is potential for patchy dense fog and freezing fog
  overnight, but confidence on any impacts is currently low

- Quiet conditions tonight with high pressure over the region

It remains well below normal this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies with high pressure ridging in from the north. Cold
conditions are expected tonight with good radiational cooling
conditions, and low temps will reach the mid to upper 20s
inland, and the mid to upper 30s along the coast.

With strong cooling tonight and a still saturated ground, there
will also be potential for patchy fog to develop, and there are
indications that what forms could be locally dense by early
tomorrow morning. Additionally, with temperatures dropping into
the 20s, freezing fog is possible, but confidence is currently
low as to whether is will be prevalent enough to cause any
impacts on elevated roadways and bridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Quiet, dry and below normal conditions continue tomorrow

High pressure will remain over the region tomorrow, but high
clouds increasing through the day and low level thicknesses
still below normal, we will only see highs in the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week

 - Potential for precip to begin as snow across Martin and Pitt
   counties Friday morning, but with temps above freezing to
   accumulations or impacts are anticipated

The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of
lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several
shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in
the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being
from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across
northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will
open the door for a mix of rain and/or snow. Elsewhere, temps
will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large
temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low
40s inland and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Highs won`t be
much different along the coast on Saturday but will warm to the
upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs
will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs
in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern
half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry
conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds
back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- VFR conditions have returned to all this afternoon

- There is potential for MVFR/IFR fog to develop late tonight
  and early tomorrow morning

- With temperatures dipping below freezing, there is also a risk
  of freezing fog developing, but confidence is low as to
  whether there will be any impacts

High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight
and tomorrow, with mostly clear skies expected overnight. This
will lead to good radiational cooling, and an associated risk of
fog development, which could become locally dense early tomorrow
morning. Freezing fog may become an issue in locations that drop
below freezing, which looks to be most of inland ENC, but there
remains uncertainty as to whether or not there will be any
impacts to elevated surfaces/structures/aircraft.

Outlook: The next system is expected to move through ENC Friday
and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Good boating conditions continue through tomorrow

- A brief period of Small Craft conditions are possible tomorrow
  night through early Friday morning

- There is potential for Gale Force winds to develop behind a
  low pressure system Monday

Winds will continue out of the NNW/NW through tomorrow at 5-15
kts. Thereafter, winds will increase to be N/NNE at 15-20 kts
with some wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft, but
will briefly increase to 3-5 ft tomorrow night.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through later this
week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain but a low
threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right now). Behind the last
system Monday strong northerly winds will develop, and there
will be a potential for Gale Force winds to develop.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SGK