Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
497 FXUS62 KMHX 080737 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 237 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Two fronts cross the region this weekend, the second being an Arctic front will approach the region Sunday bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A much colder airmass builds into the region early next week. Weak backdoor front crosses late-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 0200 Saturday...Warm front has lifted N of the FA, keeping the region warm sectored through mid morning. Showers associated with prefrontal trough located over central NC will wane through the overnight as it approaches, reaching Wern periphery of the FA around sunrise. First front of this weekend will enter the FA this morning and stall to bisect the area this afternoon and evening. Deep westerly downslope flow and weak/unfavorable dynamics will keep precip chances minimal with mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Southerly flow will bring additional warming with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0215 Saturday...Weak area of low pressure develops along the stalled boundary near the GA/SC/NC border late this afternoon/early evening with broad upper level troughing across much of CONUS. The developing weak low will act to lift the stalled boundary Nward through the overnight, warm sectoring the FA yet again, bringing further moistening and warming of the lower levels leading to increase in cloud coverage and PoPs from SW to NE beginning around sunset and overspreading the FA overnight. Some possibility of more stout storms this afternoon SW of the FA with some instability and increasing shear as weak embedded shortwaves work through the trough aloft, but the severe potential will be waning by the time the storms get into our area, though heavier rain rates will remain possible through the overnight. Muggier MinTs in upper 50s/low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 0200 Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. - An Arctic front will push across the area Sunday night/Monday morning with much colder temperatures early next week. - Potential for first freeze of the season Mon Night/Tues Morning. A strong northern stream trough will dig into the central CONUS this weekend and then move to the East Coast early next week, bringing the coldest airmass of the season thus far. Moderate southerly flow will persist Sunday head of the attendant Arctic front with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Temps will remain well above normal Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s along the coast. The Arctic front is progged to push across the area Sunday night with strong CAA and gusty NW winds developing on Monday in its wake. Monday will likely see MaxTs in the mid 50s and MaxT perhaps failing to reach the 50degree mark on Tuesday, which is more than 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows on Monday night are expected to drop below freezing with upper 20s to lower 30s across most inland areas and mid 30s to around 40 along the coast. The high pressure axis will slide offshore late Tuesday with SW return flow developing, which may keep temps from dropping quite as cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and clear skies, areas that decouple could drop below freezing once again. High pressure remains centered across SECONUS Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow will actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s. High pressure builds into the area Friday with highs in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1 AM Sat...VFR conditions have returned to the airspace early this morning as earlier fog and low stratus have dissipated. Expect VFR conditions to continue through the rest of the night and through today, though there could be some brief moments of MVFR conditions at times. SW gradient will continue this morning, keeping conditions mixed, with areas of mid level and later this morning lower level (4000-5000 ft) ceilings expected. For most of today, low and mid level clouds should clear out with dry conditions anticipated. By this evening, clouds will fill back in from the south as a warm front moves northward through the region overnight. Areas of showers and low level stratus are expected with this feature early tonight, and MVFR conditions appear likely, especially over the coastal plain. Variable VFR/MVFR ceilings are then possible through sunrise Sunday. Outlook: Breezy but VFR conditions expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up in the afternoon, but not sure at this juncture whether coverage will be great enough to cause widespread sub-VFR conditions. Behind a strong cold front early next week, mostly VFR conditions are anticipated with much cooler and drier air moving in. && .MARINE... As of 0230 Saturday... Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms possible overnight Saturday as stalled front lifts back N as a warm front - Marginal SCA conditions in place second half of the weekend as front approaches and eventually crosses area waters late Sun night/early Monday. - Boating conditions deteriorate early week as stout high pressure builds behind the front with a period of Gales possible Monday night into Tuesday. Seas currently 3-5 ft with SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds relax to less than 15 kt on Saturday with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft by late in the day. A front is expected to approach from the W this morning, stalling somewhere across the Nern waters/sounds where it will linger into the overnight. This will allow winds to back to N to NEly but will veer back to SE to Sly Saturday night. A strong Arctic front will approach the area late in the weekend and is currently progged to push across the waters late Sunday night/early Mon morning. SW winds increase to around 15-20 kt on Sunday and could see minimal SCA conditions develop with gusts around 25 kt and seas approaching 6 ft, with best chances near the Gulf Stream. Winds become NW behind the front with the true Arctic surge developing late Monday with winds increasing to 20-30 kt with a potential for Gale Force winds, especially in gusts, and seas building to 4-8 ft Monday night into Tuesday. Winds diminish to around 15-25 kt late Tuesday and Tuesday night while backing to WSW with high pressure centered south of the area. However, another front will approach on Wednesday with strong SCA conditions developing, particularly in the afternoon. Winds remain W/NWerly into next weekend behind the mid-week front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SGK MARINE...CEB