445
FXUS62 KMHX 240018
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
718 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in through Monday. A cold front with
limited moisture moves through on Tuesday, followed by the
potential for a stronger cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sat...Weak high pressure centered over the Gulf
Coast continues to gradually expand northeastward over the
Carolinas. Main change was to lower winds along the waters as
pressure gradient is weakening a bit more quickly than expected.
Still expecting the winds to decouple for most of ENC, setting
the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions, which should
offset the warming thicknesses. Cont to lean more heavily on
the 25th percentile of available guidance (which appears to have
performed well 2 nights ago). Higher confidence on temps
staying above freezing, as afternoon min TD`s were in the mid
30s and no lower, suggesting our overnight lows will be in the
mid 30s for most locales. A few of the typical colder spots may
get to freezing, however these sites have already reached
freezing several times this season. Thus, have issued a late
season/low impact frost advisory for all of the mainland
counties with exception of East Carteret County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Aforementioned high pres will shift offshore,
allowing for return swrly flow and inc thicknesses and hts. This
will allow for temps to rebound back to climo, which is
generally in the mid 60s. Cont sunny skies and light winds will
make for a very pleasant day on tap.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2:30 AM Saturday...

- Warming trend through Tuesday

- Cold fronts on Tuesday and early Friday will bring next rain
  chances

An upper low will then rotate across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday and drag a surface cold front across ENC. Another trough
will move across ENC on Friday, which will produce the
strongest surface front of the period.

Monday...All will remain quiet across ENC as high pressure
expands over the area and the warming trend continues. Temps
will be above normal and increase to around 70 on Monday.

Tuesday - Wednesday...The warming trend will continue on
Tuesday with temps reaching near 70 ahead of an approaching cold
front. Although the forecast has trended slightly wetter, PoPs
have still been capped at slight chance over land (chance PoPs
offshore) with scant QPF (0.01 or less). This front will bring
the next shot of cold air to ENC, which will limit Wednesday`s
high temps to the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday - Friday...The pattern becomes more active with higher
confidence of showers towards the end of the week. By early
Thursday morning, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC
and linger through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter
with increasing PoPs through early Friday morning at which
point the stationary boundary will move east as a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 720 PM Sat...VFR conditions prevail tonight as weak high
pressure builds in from the west. Expect clear and cold
conditions overnight, but fog potential will be limited due to
very dry airmass in place. Still cannot rule out some steam fog
at OAJ and PGV, and maintained TEMPO groups for this risk
although impacts are likely to remain negligible.

Winds veer southwesterly tomorrow as high moves offshore. Some
gusty conditions possible over the coastal plain, reaching up to
15 kt at times.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions persist
through the period. Winds will generally be SW at 5-10 kt
through Monday. On Tuesday, winds will veer to the NW and
increase to 10-15 kt as a cold front traverses the area. This
cold front will introduce a slight chance of showers, which
could result in some periods of sub-VFR ceilings. Winds will
continue to turn to the NE on Wednesday and relax to around 5
kt.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sun/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Winds cont to diminish, and remaining SCA`s
for the coastal waters will be ending by early evening. The
offshore winds will mean that seas will quickly follow suite and
subside below 6 ft as well. Expect wrly winds of 5-15 knots for
the sounds and rivers, with 10-20 kt for the coastal waters
this evening. Winds veer swrly late tonight into Sun but only in
the 5-15 kt range, and seas of 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2:30 AM Saturday...All waters will remain below SCA
criteria through Monday. A cold front is forecast to pass on
Tuesday, which will increase winds to 20-25 kt and seas will
build to 4-5 ft with some 6 footers possible along the outer
central waters by Tuesday afternoon. Winds and seas will relax
on Wednesday and fall below SCA criteria once again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC