719
FXUS62 KMHX 040200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Wednesday with
seasonable and drier conditions expected. Weak low pressure will
impact the area late week, with another cold front approaching
and moving through Eastern NC this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 2150 Tuesday...Dry and benign conditions continue into
tonight with light SEerly winds. Winds could decouple to calm
for locations away from the coast which is shown with the lower
MinTs here, upper 50s. Tds have rebounded slightly and will
continue to recover tonight, though dew point depressions should
remain wide enough to inhibit widespread fog development.
Latest high- res guidances suggests some brief fog for far
inland/western zones Duplin/Lenoir, but expect it to be too dry
for fog development inland. Temps will remain mild overnight,
low 60s inland to mid/upper 60s along the coast/Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...High pressure continues to shift offshore,
away from the coast Wednesday with a broad area of weak low
pressure starting to form off the GA/SC coast, slowly lifting
north closer to Eastern NC late in the day. Southeasterly winds
continue Wednesday, 5-15 mph. Temps similar to today, mid 80s
inland to upper 70s along the coast/Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tue....

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern returns late week into the weekend. Periods
  of moderate to heavy rain will be possible Thursday and
  Thursday night.

Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region through
Wed as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the
eastern seaboard. Temps will be grad warming, with highs
generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the SE coast and
lift towards the NC coast Thu and Fri, which will likely bring
scattered to numerous showers and tstms. Increased PoPs to
Chc/Likely with this update, with highest probs for Onslow and
Carteret counties.

- NHC is monitoring the potential for tropical development. If
  this system remains offshore the low could grad develop some
  subtropical or tropical characteristics (10% chance).

A cold front will approach the area from the west this weekend
with weak waves moving along it, though still some model
uncertainty with respect to timing and if the front is able to
push through all the way through. Will continue high chance
pops this weekend into early next week with temps near to
slightly above climo, with greatest chances during peak heating
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 1930 Tuesday...VRF flight cats through the period. Mostly
clear skies save for upper level clouds beginning to spill over
the region from S to N. Light SEerly winds tonight into
Wednesday morning. Probabilities for inland fog have dropped
even further with recent guidance, do not anticipate sub-VFR
conditions overnight. Light SE winds and mostly sunny skies
again for Wednesday morning, with increasing high clouds through
the period, particularly in the evening, as a broad area of low
pressure of the GA/SC coasts begins to lift north towards the
area.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
Wed, with potential for sub-VFR conditions increasing Wed night
through Fri. Weak low pressure will impact the area Thu and Fri,
which will bring scattered to numerous showers and tstms and
potentially periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 410 PM Tuesday...Light SE winds with 1-2 ft seas around 8
seconds periodicity, will persist through tonight due to high
pressure at the surface and aloft. The ridge will shift farther
offshore tomorrow. Light SE winds 5-15 kt for Wednesday with
seas ranging 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...High pressure will remain in place through
Wed, with a weak low lifting through the waters late week. Light
to moderate SE flow will continue Wed with seas 2-3 ft. SSE
winds will increase to 10-20 kt Thu and Fri. Depending on the
track and the strength of the low, there is potential for SCA
conditions to develop late Thu into Fri night, with gusty winds
and 6 ft+ seas. Moderate S-WSW winds will continue Sat with seas
2-4 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...If an inland low track is realized for
Thursday into Friday, there is potential for heavy rainfall for
a region that has seen plenty of rainfall already over the past
2 weeks. WPC currently has Eastern NC in a day 3 Marginal (1/5)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), although if more models lean
towards the inland track, an upgrade may be necessary. Impacts
depend on the eventual track of the low, which will come in
better focus over the next 1-2 days. In a reasonable worst-case
scenario for an inland track, widespread 2-3 inches with
isolated 4-5 inches along the coast is within the realm of
possibility. If the low stays offshore, heavy rain threat
decreases quite a bit, with no more than 1-2" expected along the
coast, becoming even less inland.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/CEB
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CQD/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...DAG/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX