699
FXUS62 KMHX 031301
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
901 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of
the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold
front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 900 AM Thursday... Key Messages:

 - Isolated showers today, mainly this morning

 - Well above normal temps today

Upper ridging remains centered off the Southeast coast while
extending west across most of the eastern US and will continue
through the short term. Meanwhile, strong sfc high pressure
centered off the Canadian Maritimes continues to ridge south
into the Southeast producing a warm and moist southerly flow
across the region. A weak disturbance riding over the upper
ridge in the presence of modest instability (CAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) has aided in developing isolated to widely
scattered showers across SE NC, which were lifting into
southern sections of the FA this morning. High res guidance
shows isolated showers continuing to lift through the area
through the morning, then shifting off the coast this afternoon.
The moisture is fairly shallow, below a low level inversion
around 850 mb, with very dry air in the mid levels so expect
precip to generally remain light with QPF amounts a couple
hundredths of an inch at best. Very mild temps this morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s will lead to highs around 10-15
degrees above normal this afternoon reaching in the mid 80s
inland and upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast due to
cooler water temps. Temps may flirt with record high temps at
some locations but mostly cloudy skies for much of the morning
will likely delay heating enough to keep highs a few degrees
below records most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...High pressure sfc and aloft continues
to prevail across the region through the short term with dry
conditions expected tonight. S to SW flow will continue to bring
mild temps across the area with lows expected in the mid 60s,
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on
Friday and potentially into the weekend

Friday and Saturday...While there are no significant changes to
the forecast, have made a few minor tweaks as of this update.
Upper level pattern amplifies on Fri and Sat as a positively
tilted trough digs into the Western CONUS while upper ridging
continues to build across the Eastern CONUS. Upper trough does
gradually push E`wards each day getting into the Plains by Sat
night. At the mid levels and surface, high pressure ridging will
remain centered offshore in the Sargasso Sea allowing for dry
weather and steady SW`rly flow. A cold front will also stall
just to the north of the CWA near the NC/VA border Fri night,
but this stalling front will quickly lift to the north as a warm
front without much fanfare on Sat. SW`rly flow will advect a
warm and moist airmass to ENC this weekend which brings the
first challenge to the forecast. Continued mid and upper level
moisture advection should bring fairly widespread cloud cover to
ENC each morning on Fri and Sat with skies clearing as we go
through the afternoon each day. Depending on how quickly the
cloudcover dissipates will determine how warm we get each day,
but either way, with ongoing WAA, still expecting temps to
remain well above normal Fri and Sat. ECWMF EFI values remain
close to the 90th percentile on Fri and 80th percentile on Sat,
while NAFES surface and 850 mb temps remain around 1-2 SD above
normal each day. This should allow highs to at the very least
get to the mid to upper 80s inland (with temps even approaching
the low 90s inland if we see less cloudcover) while the beaches
and OBX see highs into upper 70s to low 80s both days which will
be near record to record setting for early April. Not to be
outdone, lows will remain elevated as well only getting down
into the 60s each night (see "Climate Section" for more
information).

Sunday and Monday... Upper level trough broadens as it continues to
push E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the mid
levels, shortwave rounding the base of this trough also pushes
E`wards across the Deep South and nears the coast on Mon while
a second potent shortwave dives SE`wards across the Great Lakes
on Mon as upper level ridging finally begins to push E`wards Sun
into Mon further out into the Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will gradually push E`wards across the Carolinas on Sun
eventually pushing offshore on Mon. This front is expected to
bring widespread cloudcover, rain, and even some thunderstorms
to ENC. Guidance continues to hint at Mon being the primary day
for precip so kept precip trends the same with SChc to Chc
PoP`s Sun night and Chc to likely PoP`s across the area on Mon.
Will likely need to refine the PoP forecast for Mon as we get a
little closer as some guidance suggests there may be multiple
rounds of showers across the area with some dry time in between.
Either way, most Global and Ensemble guidance suggests a rather
beneficial rain on Mon with QPF amounts around 1-2 locally 3+
inches possible with this front. Last of the well above normal
temps occurs on Sun with near record highs once again possible
before cloud cover and rain on Mon brings temps back down to
normal.

Tuesday through midweek...Broad upper troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard from Tue into midweek swinging the proverbial
temperature pendulum the complete opposite way with temps forecast
to be well below normal Tue and Wed with record low temps possible
Tue night which would bring frost concerns to the Coastal Plain.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Thursday...MVFR conditions continues across most
of ENC early this morning with a few locations reporting IFR,
including EWN and OAJ. IFR should lift to MVFR by around 13z
with MVFR continuing through mid-day with pred VFR returning
through the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds will
gust to around 20 kt mid morning through the afternoon when
mixing is maximized.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions expected
through much of Sun as high pressure remains centered offshore
and a steady SW`rly breeze will be in place across ENC. Will
note a cold front will begin to approach on Sun allowing for
SW`rly winds to increase with gusts up towards 20-25 kts at
times Sun afternoon. Otherwise as we get into Sun night and Mon,
sub-VFR conditions become increasingly likely as the
aforementioned cold front nears the area and slowly tracks
across ENC bringing widespread rain and low clouds to the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 900 AM Thursday...no changes to previous thinking. High
pressure will remain centered off the coast while extending west
into the waters through the short term bringing S-SSW winds
around 10-20 kt through the short term with seas around 3-5 ft.
Cannot rule out an occasional gust to 25 kt and seas to 6 ft
across the outer portions of the coastal waters near the Gulf
Stream, but don`t expect sufficient coverage/duration to warrant
a Small Craft Advisory at this time.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...High pressure will remain centered
offshore with a stalling front noted to the north on Fri with
this stalled front then lifting N`wards on Sat as a warm front.
This will keep ongoing 10-15 kt SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas in
place across our waters into Sat afternoon. As we get into Sat
evening and on Sun a cold front will begin approaching from the
west, tightening the pressure gradient and allowing SW`rly winds
to increase closer to 20-25 kts with gusts up towards 25-30 kts
Sat night with these elevated winds persisting through Sun.
This will once again bring SCA`s to our waters this weekend.
Seas along our coastal waters will respond in kind increasing to
3-5 ft Sat night and then 4-7 ft by Sun. Aforementioned cold
front then slowly pushes offshore on Mon bringing widespread
shower and even some thunderstorm activity to our waters and
allowing SW`rly winds to ease slightly down to 15-20 kts with
gusts up towards 25 kts across just about all of the waters
outside of the inland rivers. Seas remain around 4-7 ft on Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Thursday 04/03

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1963  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    81/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          90/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1967  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...JME/SK/RCF
MARINE...JME/SK/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX