351
FXUS62 KMHX 060024
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
724 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low forming along a coastal trough off of the NC coast will
produce light rain tonight through Thursday afternoon with
highest amounts falling along the coast. An unsettled pattern
will continue through the middle of next week with multiple days
of above average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 PM Wed...A strong coastal trough with embedded area of
low pressure will slowly move NE-ward tonight, keeping precip
chances high overnight. The most widespread and steadiest rain
will be along the immediate coast and Outer Banks, while further
inland rain will be more intermittent and very light. Rain
chances begin to taper off early tomorrow morning, but remain
15-30% through sunrise (highest along the OBX).

Low clouds will continue over the area through the night, but
continuing CAA will push temps down into the upper 30s inland,
and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Hatteras Island could have some
wildly fluctuating temperatures as the axis of the coastal
trough moves overhead tonight. Temps here are currently in the
40s but could rise as high as the upper 50s overnight before
sinking again around sunrise.

Finally, with the low levels very saturated, weakening winds
overnight will allow for the formation of fog. This fog is
expected to be most widespread and dense across NE NC and the
Albemarle Sound region, where visibilities could drop to 1 mile
or less at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...Thursday starts with low pressure
just offshore near or approaching the NC/VA border and its
associated cold front draped Sward around the Gulfstream. The
SFC low deepens on its NEward trek as shortwave trough aloft
pivots Eward across Sern CAN. Looks like this will send another
weak cold front southeast into northern portions of eastern NC
by Thu night. Ahead of this boundary showers are expected to
develop Thu, especially in the morning and mostly north of
Highway 264. This shower activity should be more scattered in
nature. Most of the afternoon should be dry. High temps tricky
as low cloud cover will be slow to erode so will forecast highs
mostly in the 60s except for the extreme south where low 70s
will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0300 Wednesday...Unsettled pattern with multiple frontal
systems impacting the area through the weekend and into next
week.

Late week...Precip chances increase again after midnight Thu as
SFC prefrontal trough approaches from the W ahead of a front
slated to cross the FA Fri.

Weekend...The front is expected to stall S of the area as high
pressure builds in from the N before lifting back Nward late
Saturday, warm sectoring the area ahead of the next front which will
likely push through the area later in the day Sunday, continuing the
windshield washer effect of warm-cold-warm between fronts.

Next Week...Upper level finally breaks away from the mostly zonal
flow as digging shortwave across the PACNW leads to more dynamic
pattern aloft with cool high pressure at the SFC. Front stalled
to the S acts as focal point for waves traveling through the
area, upping the chances of a more meaningful wetting rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Evening/...
As of 7 PM Wed...Widespread MVFR conditions are present this
evening across the airspace with a coastal low overhead.
Deteriorating conditions are soon expected with ceilings
dropping to IFR levels within the next 2-3 hours, and remaining
at IFR or at times LIFR levels until at least late tomorrow
morning if not later. Additionally, areas of fog are likely to
develop once winds subside overnight, with the greatest
reductions in visibilities over NE NC (1-3 miles but locally
denser).

Weak flow and limited mixing tomorrow morning will keep low
clouds and fog in place for most of the morning. Increasing SW
flow will finally dissipate cloud cover from SW to NE from late
tomorrow morning to early afternoon. VFR conditions then remain
in place for the rest of the afternoon and into tomorrow
evening.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Wednesday...Sub VFR flight cats are expected into
the end of the week. Conditions briefly improve late Thurs into
Friday before deteriorating once again this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...SCA`s continue for all of the coastal
waters and the Pamlico Sound for increasing winds and building
seas associated with a developing coastal trough and eventual
surface low off the with gusts to 25 kt expected. This will will
result in seas building to 4-7 ft over the northern and central
waters. Winds are forecast to eventually veer to the SW by
Thursday morning at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves will be
4-5 ft today but will build to 6-7 ft across the outer central
waters by Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0315 Wednesday...SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt Thu
ahead of approaching cold front with seas building to 4-7 ft.
The front is likely to push through the waters early Friday,
with winds becoming N 10-20 kt and 3-5 ft seas. The front lifts
back Nward through waters as a warm front, turning 10-20kt winds
Serly and potentially bringing a threat of sea fog. Conditions
deteriorate further late in the weekend ahead of the next front
to pass through Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for AMZ154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...JME/CEB