506
FXUS62 KMHX 262033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
433 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this
front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week.
By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold
front approaching by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Key Message: Thunderstorms late today and tonight will pose a risk
for damaging wind gusts and small hail.

As of 3 PM Saturday...Aside from a few popcorn showers that have
blossomed along the seabreeze, radar has been relatively quiet
so far this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows that clouds
have started to clear over far western coastal plain counties,
which will support additional heating and destabilization ahead
of this evening`s cold front.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along
the seabreeze, becoming more widespread over the next few hours.
The main show, however, will be after 00Z when a cold front
will enter the CWA from the west and support the development of
more organized convection as it moves southeast across ENC. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows that instability will increase through the
evening, building to 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the coastal
plain. 0-6 km bulk shear of ~20 kt will support the development
of more organized cells with the main hazard of concern being
damaging wind gusts. Small hail is possible within stronger
cells, but a high freezing level may present melting issues.

The line of convection will push off the coast by early Sunday
morning with much cooler and drier air rushing in behind it. A
stark difference in lows will be felt behind the front tonight
with most areas dropping to temperatures at least 10 degrees cooler
than last night. Areas north of Highway 264, where the front will
pass earlier and have more time to cool down overnight, will
reach the low- to mid-50s. Areas closer to the coast that won`t
be impacted by the front until later tonight will remain in the
upper-50s to low-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...Tomorrow`s post-frontal air mass will
result in breezy northerly winds with mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than today. The OBX will
max out in the mid-60s with the coastal plain reaching the low-
to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging
will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push
E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for
the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea
breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to
get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and
beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an
upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will
be on the increase especially along our northern zones which
could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area
Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and
evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this
weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper
trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a
threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday
onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time
feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland
and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to
upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and
beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s
across ENC by midweek as well.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 1:30 PM Saturday...VFR flight conditions will persist
until later this afternoon when showers and thunderstorms will
become more widespread as the seabreeze moves inland. Later
tonight, a cold front will cross ENC and introduce higher PoPs
as well as the potential for severe wind gusts and small hail.

Low and mid-level clouds have been increasing over the past
several hours and stratiform rain is starting to expand across
the area due to a nearby weak surface trough. This activity is
expected to remain scattered with the greatest potential for
thunderstorms being along the seabreeze.

Later tonight, the atmosphere will become better suited to
support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms as a cold
front moves southeast across the area. This line of better
organized convection will open the door for sub-VFR conditions
and pose a risk for gusty winds and small hail. Conditions
should rapidly improve behind the front with the infiltration of
drier air. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by early
tomorrow morning with Sunday hosting mostly sunny skies and
breezy northerly winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually
pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions
across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed
afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and
increases precip chances.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sun/...
As of 4:15 PM Saturday...Hazardous boating conditions are
ongoing across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with
building seas and 15-25 kt southwesterly winds gusting to 25-30
kt. Conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight as a
northerly surge behind a passing cold front overspreads the
area. This will lead to 20-25 kt winds gusting to 25-30+ kt and
seas building to 5-6 ft (north of Ocracoke Inlet). The Albemarle
Sound, Alligator River, and mouths of the inland rivers may
briefly gust to 25 kt with the northerly surge behind the front,
but these conditions will be brief enough to preclude a SCA. All
other waters, however, have a SCA in effect through at least
early tomorrow afternoon with hazardous conditions lasting the
longest across the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and
Ocracoke Inlet. By tomorrow evening, all seas should drop below
6 ft and winds will decrease to ~10 kt.

Strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and small hail
will be possible late tonight and into early tomorrow morning,
which may warrant Special Marine Warnings.

LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

With high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek,
expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds
gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly
direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft
by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may
briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around
2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ135-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ158-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...OJC/RCF
MARINE...OJC/RCF