445
FXUS62 KMHX 041840
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
240 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently centered to the north will push
offshore over the next few days eventually allowing for return
flow to set up once again. This will bring very warm
temperatures and generally dry conditions to ENC into the
beginning of next week. Cold front approaches during the middle
of next week increasing chances at unsettled weather. High
pressure builds in behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...A great fall day so far with temps reaching the
upper 70s to near 80 inland while along the OBX low to mid 70s are
prevalent. Light NE`rly winds and partly cloudy skies persist
for the most part this afternoon across ENC as high pressure
centered to the north gradually slides E`wards today towards the
coast. WIll note the lone exception is around Cape Lookout where
a few weak showers associated with a coastal trough continue to
track into the area. This is forecast to only last a few more
hours before precip chances end.

As we get into tonight weak upper trough slides SE`wards across the
Mid-Atlantic but this will be of little consequence this evening.
The main driver of the weather will be the mid and surface
level high pressure ridging centered to the north of ENC
tonight. This ridging is forecast to slide E`wards overnight and
push offshore, however it will still extend SW`wards into the
Carolinas overnight. This will veer winds to more of an E`rly
direction overnight. Once again much like the previous evening
there is a good chance we decouple especially across areas
along and west of Hwy 17 and with clear skies fog will once
again be a threat. Latest guidance continues to hint at this
and given the overall setup it appears we have a better chance
to se more widespread fog tonight with patchy dense fog
possible as well. Fog threat increases after about 2AM tonight
and persist until daybreak potentially making any morning travel
hazardous on Sunday. Only spoiler to the fog threat would be
the incoming high cloud cover which may limit this threat but
for now given the signal kept a larger footprint of fog in the
forecast. Once again, skewed towards the lower end of
temperature guidance given the expectation for good radiational
cooling with lows in the low to mid 50s inland and 60s along
the coast and OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Any leftover fog is forecast to quickly
dissipate Sunday morning after sunrise with yet another
beautiful fall day on tap. Surface high pressure continues to
push further offshore but continues to extend into the
Carolinas bringing dry weather and light E`rly winds to the
area. Low level thicknesses increase ever so slightly for
SUnday resulting in highs in the low 80s inland and mid to upper
70s along the immediate coast and OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off
the Mid- Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the
Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue into
Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and
early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc
cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances
of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms across the region.
Instability is lacking, but the strong forcing may be enough to
overcome the lack of instability for thunderstorm formation.

Behind this cold front, high pressure builds in and strong
pressure gradient sets up. This will result in gusty NE winds,
highest over coastal zones. This, paired with king tides, would
bring coastal flooding concerns. See Coastal Flooding section
for more information.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 235 PM Sat... No significant change to the forecast
thinking as VFR conditions are expected across ENC tonight with
just some mid and high level clouds streaming in across the
region this afternoon and evening. Much like last night, we will
continue to monitor the potential for fog/low stratus which
guidance continues to show a signal for. As of this writing any
fog/stratus development would be after 06Z tonight and last
until just after daybreak on Sunday. Highest chance to see
reduced vis/ceilings is across ISO/PGV and then OAJ with EWN
having the highest likelihood to stay VFR all night. As a result
kept similar thinking to what I inherited and left TEMPO IFR
groups in for PGV/ISO and MVFR tempo group for OAJ between 8/9Z
and 12Z. AFter any leftover fog/low stratus dissipates tomorrow
morning expect light winds and vfr conditions on Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE
to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out
patchy late night fog over the weekend and early next week when
winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Benign wind field is forecast through the
period as high pressure gradually shifts offshore promoting
NE-E`rly winds at 5-15 kts. WIth this in mind the main hazard
through the short term will continue to be the elevated seas
with 4-7 ft seas at 11-13 sec noted across our coastal waters
while seas across the inland rivers and sounds remain at 2 ft or
less.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...High pressure migrates offshore over
the weekend with easterly winds around 15 kt or less through
Monday, then veers to SE on Tuesday. Seas around 3-6 ft on
Saturday will slowly subside through the long term, although 5-6
footers will linger near the Gulf Stream through Monday.
Tuesday onwards we should be below 6ft across all coastal waters
as boating conditions become much more pleasant than the past
couple days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

Lingering swell from ex-Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda:

Continued long period swell and a steady NE`rly wind will bring
minor coastal flooding impacts to Hatteras Island into this
evening before impacts lower below typical advisory criteria.
As a result the coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire
tonight at 8PM after this afternoons high tide cycle.

King Tides and potential for strong NE flow mid to late next
week:

Next week we enter a king tide cycle, with astronomically high
tides. The highest tides are expected from Tuesday (10/7) to
Saturday (10/11). By themselves, minor coastal flooding is
expected for typical vulnerable low lying locales. However,
there is potential for strong NE wind gusts behind a cold front
Thursday and Friday. This would help waves build along the
coast, and may also help push some water towards the southern
Pamlico Sound and Neuse river. There is still decent uncertainty
on the strength of the winds, but should they materialize as
forecast, or greater, the compounding effects of strong winds,
higher seas, and king tides could cause greater impacts for
areas with vulnerable dune structures along OBX Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX