721
FXUS62 KMHX 220146
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
946 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin is forecast to lift further up the east coast
this evening, although significant coastal impacts will continue
tonight into Friday, especially along the Outer Banks. High
pressure builds in through early in the weekend. A weak coastal
low may bring light rain on Sunday, with high pressure
reestablishing itself next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 2135 Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Duck to Beaufort
Inlet

- Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout

- Mostly dry forecast overnight but continue to carry very low
  slight chance for a few more hours for OBX should something
  pop up.

Hurricane Erin is accelerating north-northeastward tonight at
around 18 mph, currently more than 400mi NE of Cape Hatteras.
North to northeasterly winds continue to steadily ease as the
pressure gradient loosens with Erin`s departure. Along the
Outer Banks, winds will remain breezy through the overnight.

The northerly flow on Erin`s western periphery is helping to
advect a cooler and drier airmass from the north and west behind
a stalled cold front offshore causing T/Tds to fall into the mid
to upper 60s through the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...Dry weather on Friday as weak high
pressure builds in behind the front, expected to be stalled to
our south. We will get a break from the humidity as dew points
continue to fall into the 60s through the day. High temps
slightly below average, in the low to mid 80s.

Coastal impacts from Erin`s associated swell expected to linger
into Friday - see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Saturday...Lingering coastal impacts will cont as large back
swell from departing Erin keeps high waves on the OBX. Sensible
weather impacts improve as high builds in. Mainly dry wx and
seasonably warm temps expected as the high remains through the
end of the week.

Sunday...Weak low pres may zip up the Southeastern Seaboard the
end of the weekend, bringing rain to parts of ENC. Attm, most
guidance hugs the coast, so pops were raised in this area to
40-60%. How far west the precip gets is in question, and
therefore pops remain in the 20-40% range.

Monday through Wednesday...High pres reestablishes itself by
early next week, and therefore pops no higher than 10-20% are
forecast. Seasonably mild temps in the fcst with highs in the
80s and lows 65-70 forecast, which is very near climo for the
last week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Fri/...
As of 1920 Thursday...Mostly VFR flight cats through the
overnight but there is a chance the SCT MVFR deck becomes BKN at
times for the next few hours across inland terminals as
stratocu continues to stream over area terminals on the western
periphery of Erin.

Forecast calls for gradual improvement of flight conditions
through the evening and into tomorrow as Erin continues to lift
farther the the NE. Drier air in the wake of the front Erin
pushed through will help to scatter out lower cloud decks. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Friday, keeping winds
under 10 kt and skies mainly sct.

LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Mainly dry weather late week as high pres
builds in. A weak coastal low may bring some rain on Sunday,
with high pres building back in to start the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 5 PM Thurs...Tropical Storm warnings have ended across
Pamlico, Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle Sounds, as well as
across the Alligator River, and southern coastal waters and have
since been replaced by small craft advisories. Tropical Storm
warnings remain in place across the coastal waters north of
Ocracoke but are expected to come down later this evening.

Hurricane Erin continues to pull further away from the region this
evening which will allow for the pressure gradient to relax tonight
and allow winds to ease in response. Ongoing 15-25 kt NW`rly winds
with gusts up around 25-35 kts are noted across all area waters. At
the same time, 5-9 ft seas are noted across Onslow Bay while 7-15 ft
seas are noted elsewhere along our coastal waters. As noted above,
this has allowed for most of the previous tropical storm warnings to
end and be replaced by small craft advisories. With the pressure
gradient relaxing further tonight, winds will continue to ease with
N`rly winds falling to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts primarily
along the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with weaker winds
elsewhere. Winds continue to ease Fri falling to 10-15 kts by Fri
evening. This will result in all inland waters SCA`s ending by Fri
morning. However, as long period swell from Erin continues to impact
the area this will keep seas up closer to 4-7 ft across Onslow Bay
on Fri while ongoing 7-15 ft seas elsewhere gradually lower on Fri
as well down to 5-9 ft, thus keeping SCA`s in place across our
coastal waters through the period.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Winds cont to diminish, with nerly flow in the
5-15 kt range, but SCA seas cont into the weekend as backswell
from departing Erin cont to propagate into the coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Key Messages:

- Storm Surge Warnings, Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood
  Advisories and High Surf Advisories remain in effect through
  as late as Friday night. Last night`s high tide has led to
  substantial overwash on NC-12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island
  as well as substantial wave run-up to dune structures on the
  Crystal Coast. Worst conditions are expected on the Outer
  Banks with this evening`s high tide cycles.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected all week and into
  the weekend.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but large and
powerful Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats.
Significant coastal flooding/ocean overwash/erosion is expected
especially around the high tide cycle this evening.

Moderate to major inundation will mainly be focused along the
oceanside of the Outer Banks.

Winds are beginning to ease as Erin lifts farther up the coast,
but minor to locally moderate soundside flooding (1 to 3 ft
water rises) on lower Pamlico Sound and it`s adjacent
tributaries remain possible and have retained the coastal flood
warning for Carteret County through this evening`s high tide
cycle, with highest water levels in Downeast Carteret County.
Conditions will improve into Fri though minor problems may
linger, and some coastal flood products may need to be extended
for Downeast Carteret in later fcst updates.

Minor flooding (1 to 2 ft water level rises) is also possible
on the soundside for Hatteras and Ocracoke islands the rest of
today due to the north winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ094-194.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ195-196.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ196-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for NCZ203-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-231.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...TL/MS/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX