792
FXUS62 KMHX 191934
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough will gradually push offshore tonight
While at the same time high pressure will ridge southwards across
the Carolinas and remain entrenched across the Mid-Atlantic through
this weekend allowing for benign conditions across the area.
Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at least
midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Fairly active afternoon across ENC with several
boundaries noted. A weak seabreeze has begun to move inland while
outflow boundaries continue to near the coast associated with
ongoing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Much of the
ongoing shower activity is associated with a southward moving
700mb front which is currently located near the Crystal Coast.
Expect both 700 mb front and precipitation to continue to
gradually move S`wards as the afternoon wears on. Latest
mesoanalysis shows 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE with PWATs sitting
around 1.8 inches while deep moist convergence is noted to the
south of Hwy 264. This combined with the weak forcing from the
upper level front will result in a rather active radar picture
through the rest of the afternoon with widespread shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity spread across much of the region.
Where seabreeze and outflow boundaries interact, could see some
localized enhanced surface convergence and heavier precip rates
and latest guidance still suggests a low end localized flooding
risk mainly along the Crystal Coast where moist antecedant
conditions persist. Otherwise high temps today have gotten into
the upper 70s to low 80s and should peak within the next hour
or so.

As we get into tonight upper level troughing gradually pushes
offshore as a flattening ridge begins to build in from the west. At
the same time 700 mb front will finally push through the area
allowing for subsidence to build across ENC tonight ending the
precip threat across the area after sunset from northwest to
southeast with the last of the precip off the coast around
midnight. While precip moves out, a moist boundary layer remains
bringing a threat for low stratus and patchy fog to ENC
tonight. If fog were to develop guidance continues to suggests
it would begin to form across the Inner Coastal Plain first
after about midnight and spread E`wards where it had rained
earlier in the day. Lows tonight get into the mid 60s to near
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Mid/upper level trough continues to push
further offshore on Friday as high pressure starts to ridge S`wards
across the Carolinas. Decreased forcing and a drop in PWATs will
bring partly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions to ENC to end
our workweek. Some hi-res guidance is trying to show a few isolated
showers along the coastal plain in the evening Friday, but continued
to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast for now given lack of
forcing and expected widespread dry air moving over the area. With
light NE`rly flow across the area temps get into the mid 70s to low
80s on Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough moves offshore
Friday and ridging starts building in through the weekend as a
low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting to
our east. Seasonable (or just below) temps through the period
and generally dry through Tuesday.

The Weekend:
Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes
over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting south,
but there is still some model uncertainty on the strength of the
low and how close to us it reaches. Regardless it will be too
far away for any substantial impacts, but it could produce gusts
of 20-25 mph for OBX and some showers along and east of hwy 17
along a shortwave. This low could also produce high swell
impacting OBX beaches. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
more information.

Monday-Wednesday:
Ridging and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. The high
over the SE starts weakening and a low trekking across the
great lakes region brings higher chances of rain to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 115 PM Thurs...Mo cloudy skies, scattered showers, and
iso tstms are currently noted across ENC this afternoon as a 700
mb front slowly tracks S`wards. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings
has overspread ENC as of this update and expect ceilings to
gradually rise as the afternoon goes on with a brief period of
VFR ceilings likely later today across all terminals. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon into early evening. Due to the isolated nature of the
thunderstorm threat, I did not feel confident enough to even
include a tempo TS risk in the TAFs so left a VCTS mention at
all sites through this afternoon. Guidance continues to hint at
a period of sub VFR ceilings and visibility after about 06Z
tonight and given the current scattered shower activity and
expected moist low levels tonight I am inclined to believe it.
So once again indicating a period of IFR ceilings/vis in the
forecast after 06Z. Expect any low clouds and patchy fog to
quickly lift Fri morning with VFR conditions returning across
all of ENC by midday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the
long term, although Saturday morning could see some fog as skies
clear and winds calm.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thurs... Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will persist across our waters mainly south of
Oregon Inlet today bringing a low end threat for some locally
enhanced winds and seas to the area. Otherwise with high
pressure ridging gradually building S`wards into the Carolinas
through Friday a 5-15 kt N-NE`rly wind with gusts up to 15-20
kts will persist across all waters through Friday. 3-5 ft seas
are currently noted across our coastal waters this afternoon and
shouldn`t change much through Friday, though it should be noted
seas are forcast to be on the increase late Fri afternoon or
early Fri evening as swell from a deepening non-tropical low to
the northeast begins to arrive.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Sustained northerly winds increase to
10-15 kt Friday, near 15 kt Saturday, then 15-20 kt
Sunday/Monday. Winds have trended down a tad Sunday into Monday
morning, and while SCA conditions are likely, chances of gale
force winds have decreased to 10%. The strength of the winds
depends on the position and strength of the low developing
offshore to our northeast, and how strong the ridging pushing in
from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday, 3-6 ft Saturday,
4-7 ft Sunday, and 4-9 ft Monday as gusty winds + the low
offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and
coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly
swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of
these wave height ranges.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle
through this weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect
for all oceanside coastal areas into SUnday mornings high tide.
Increased swell from a low offshore brings overwash risks late
this weekend into early next week for OBX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday night to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX