965
FXUS62 KMHX 240718
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
318 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity expected through mid week. High
pressure will remain over the area today with mainly dry
conditions. Potential for thunderstorms returns mid to late
week as high pressure begins to weaken.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 240 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Dangerous heat expected today, and the Extreme Heat Warning
   continues

Latest analysis shows strong ridge centered over the Mid-
Atlantic and SE US. Weak boundary will push through this
morning with winds grad veering. Low-level thicknesses will
increase a bit compared to yday, which should support highs
topping out in the mid to upper 90s inland and low to mid 90s
for the beaches. Dewpoints may potentially fall into the upper
60s behind the boundary, though will likely remain in the 70s.
Even with the potential for slightly lower dewpoints, it`s
expected that heat indices will climb above 110 degrees thanks
to the warmer air temperatures. Given the setup, confidence is
moderate to high regarding 110+ degree heat indices, and the
Excessive Heat Warning continues for all of ENC. While a few
isolated diurnal showers/storms will be possible, the upper
ridge should keep a modest cap in place, limiting convective
chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Heat risk continues overnight
 - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
   possible overnight

There is still a decent signal for scattered convection to
develop along the higher terrain of the central Appalachians
this evening. Should this occur, some of this activity could
grow upscale and drop SE towards the coast late tonight and
early Wed morning. While it`s still not a great signal locally,
there appears to be enough support in some CAMs, to continue a
sc pop overnight. While the boundary layer will be diurnally
stabilizing, there may still be some potential for gusty winds
with any thunderstorms that manage to survive to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Dangerous heat and humidity continues Wednesday as heat
   indices are likely to reach 105 to 110+ degrees in the afternoon.

 - Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible
   Wednesday afternoon/evening

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat indices
   100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

A very strong upper level ridge will remain mostly stationary over
the region through the end of the week. Beneath this ridge, low
level heights will soar and with very light flow due to a weak
pressure gradient, the entire area (even the coast) will be well
above normal with with some near record temperatures possible
through Wednesday (at least). Highs are expected in the mid to upper
90s Wednesday. When factoring in the humidity, dangerous heat
conditions will develop Wednesday with heat indices hitting
110+. Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as
ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid 90s, with heat
indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of several days
with high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something
for those working or spending much time outside to consider
this week as they make preparations for the heat.

Strong ridge over us will weaken Wednesday onwards, bringing precip
chances with it. High Tds Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s
present moist low levels of the atmosphere. As the sea breeze
kicks off in the afternoon, the boundary may provide enough lift
for pulse thunderstorms bringing frequent lightning and locally
heavy rain. Steep mid- level lapse rates and a drier mid level
will bring CAPE values over 2-3k, while DCAPE values exceed 1k.
This brings a threat of wet microbursts and damaging winds to
develop within the pulse thunderstorms. There is uncertainty on
how expansive the coverage of storms will be given weaker upper
level support, but should convection initiate and break through
the dry layer, it will be uncapped and impressive. SPC has the
southwest portion of the CWA in a slight (2/5) risk for severe
thunderstorms, with a marginal (1/5) threat for severe
thunderstorms for the remainder of the region.

Thursday through Monday...An orb of upper level energy will
bump the ridge of high pressure to the west by late this week,
which will not only reduce the low level thicknesses (and high
temperatures) but also introduce a slight chance of
thunderstorms. These will be mostly airmass storms with little
organization, and coverage is expected to be scattered at best.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. High pressure sprawled across the region should help to
limit the SHRA and TSRA potential through this afternoon.
Additionally, the lack of appreciable low- level moisture should
help to keep the sub-VFR CIG and BR/FG potential low. Isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible overnight
and early Wed morning, which could lead to brief periods of
sub-VFR.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the period as high pressure lingers. Wednesday isolated
to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms (some of which
could bring damaging wind gusts) are possible, and could bring
some restrictions to terminals if they pass nearby. 10-20%
chance of afternoon/evening tstorms for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Tue...Very pleasant boating conditions expected
across the waters. Latest obs show light SW winds 5-15 kt with
seas around 2 ft. Weak boundary will push through the waters
this morning, allowing winds to shift to NE-E early afternoon,
before returning to SSW this evening and overnight. High
pressure overhead will keep winds 10 kt or less late this
morning and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
late tonight and early Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected
this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which will allow
sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength and
direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are expected
each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and evening
to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea breeze. Seas
will be mostly 2-3 ft through late week. One caveat is the
possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon/evening which could result in unsafe boating
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records, and record warm low temperatures at
select climate sites through Wednesday (6/25).

**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the
Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true" record
high for these days.

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Tuesday morning (6/24)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         76/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City    75/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          77/2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     79/2015  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday (6/24)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        100/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    95/1944  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/2010  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    97/1948  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     98/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Wednesday morning (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         75/2011  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    81/2011  (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City    77/2011  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          75/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     79/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        101/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    96/1952  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1948  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     98/1981  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
     198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
CLIMATE...MHX