169
FXUS62 KMHX 222000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the
eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in
late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry
weather pattern. A stronger cold front may apprach and move
through around Thanksgiving day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Bkn strato cu cont to push through and will be
offshore soon courtesy of the shortwave moving through. CAA
ramping up currently, and winds gusting 20-25 mph inland and
25-30 mph on the coast with brisk temps in the upper 40s to near
50 most locales.

For tonight, gradient will tighten with decent CAA ongoing, and
will prevent atms from decoupling with a 10-20 mph breeze
overnight inland. On the coast, particularly the OBX, winds will
gust upwards of around 45 mph, though remain below wind adv
criteria. The breezy conditions will prevent a freeze or frost,
though temps in the upper 30s combined with the wind will make
it feel like it is freezing or below, with wind chills around 30
by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...The gradient relaxes a bit tomorrow, and temps
will rise due to inc thicknesses. Temps should still be below
climo, but rise some 10 degrees or so, with highs in the upper
50s. Some places may briefly touch 60. Expecting less cloud
cover, though some sct to ocnl bkn strato cu may develop during
peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

- Warming trend through Tuesday
- Multiple fronts mid to late next week

High pressure will remain dominant until Tuesday when the next
wave is forecast to traverse the eastern U.S.

Saturday night...A lack of cloud cover and light winds will
allow for efficient radiative cooling, so lows will be back down
to the mid 30s across the coastal plain (mid 40s beaches).

Sunday - Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft and building high pressure
at the surface will support a dry and gradually warmer forecast
for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Highs will
increase from the low to mid 60s on Sunday to upper 60s to low
70s on Tuesday. A front is forecast to cross ENC on Tuesday
afternoon, but guidance is not in agreement on how wet or dry
this system will be, so I opted to lean towards the drier
guidance at this time and capped PoPs at 20%.

Wednesday - Thursday...Wednesday looks mostly dry as of now as
high pressure will briefly resume. By Wednesday evening,
however, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC and linger
through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter and
supports widespread stratiform rain, but PoPs have been capped
at chance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Fri...It appears winds will remain strong enough
tonight to preclude llws concerns with the latest update, with
wind gusts around 15 kt or so through the night as CAA will be
strengthening. The bkn strato cu will decrease as loss of
daytime heating and exiting shortwave. Winds will cont to gust
to around 15 kt or so tonight, and only slowly decrease through
the day Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...The wind field will generally be SW at
5-10 kt through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 3 PM Fri...WNW winds this afternoon 15-25kt will become
wrly and inc to 25-35 kt for the sounds and coastal waters. Have
brought the gales to SCA`s for Alligator River as wrly short
fetch will be in place. Marginal gales may occur for several
hours for Pamlico and Neuse rivers due to the favorable fetch,
postive delta T`s as incoming airmass will be colder than the
waters will allow for good mixing and solid gales for the
remainder of the marine domain overnight. Seas of 4-6 ft
will build to 6-8 ft by this evening and into tonight. Wind
gradient relaxes on Sat and gales will eventually be replaced by
SCA`s.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...Marine conditions will gradually improve
on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect everywhere except the
inland rivers through Saturday morning. Winds will be decreasing
through the day, but SCA conditions will persist through
Saturday evening, lasting the longest for waters north of Cape
Hatteras. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, all
waters will be below SCA criteria. Winds will generally be 10-20
kt with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ135-
     150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ135-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC