Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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571 FXUS62 KMHX 092038 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 338 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front has moved offshore with dry air moving in behind it. High pressure rebuilds offshore this weekend, with a cold front moving through the area on Monday. A second ridge of high pressure then builds in from the north on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1500 Saturday...Quiet night in store with lows in the low-mid 40s inland and low-mid 50s for beaches. High cloud cover will be overspreading the region as moisture gets funneled between an upper level low approaching the Great Lakes and high pressure to the S. At the SFC, high pressure centered to the N pivots offshore NECONUS coast after sunset tonight, turning low level winds more Eerly as this happens. Some stratocu pushes onshore making it as far inland as the HWY17 corridor. This will limit rad cooling, keeping temps from dropping into the 30s and precluding any fog formation. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 1500 Saturday...High pressure will be centered off the Eastern Seaboard Sunday morning and continue to push further offshore as the day wears on. A weakening upper low lifts across the Great Lakes with its attendant cold front approaching from the northwest. Light onshore winds early veer through the period to become more Serly by Sun evening. Cloudy conditions persist through the day, increasing further to OVC skies late in the afternoon as moisture ahead of the approaching front increases, keeping MaxTs in check despite the increasing thicknesses, Highs in low to mid 70s most. Iso showers are expected offshore through the day with shower chances beginning to ramp up over far reaches of inland zones around sunset as the front nears the FA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Weakening upper low lifts across the Great Lakes with its attendant cold front beginning to near the area. As the front approaches, it is becoming increasingly likely that it will tap into some of the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Rafael which is located in the Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the forcing from the approaching front is forecast to allow for increasing precip chances Sunday night with the highest chance for precip now on Monday as the aforementioned front begins to track across ENC. With increasing confidence on when the best chance for precip will be, kept the SChc to Chc PoP`s in the forecast overnight Sun into Mon morning, but then added some low end likely PoP`s to the forecast Mon morning into Mon afternoon. Southerly flow out ahead of this approaching front should also allow for some instability to build into the region on Mon afternoon and have added a SChc of thunder along the Coastal Plain. Warm temps are forecast for Sun and Mon with highs expected in the low to mid 70s. The front is forecast to push through the area Monday night with high pressure building in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday and an upper ridge building in from the west. Dry weather with prevail with NE flow bringing a slight cool down with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another mid level shortwave then begins to approach from the west on Thursday with associated surface cold front forecast to track across ENC Thurs into Thurs night. Latest guidance has shown a drier trend with only the Canadian showing a wet forecast on Thursday with GFS/ECWMF and their associated ensembles not showing much in the way of precip with this second frontal passage. A third ridge of high pressure then begins to build in from the west late next week. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/... As of 1240 Saturday..All terminals VFR flight cats and should remain that way through the period. High clouds will be present through the day with some diurnal cu along with gusty winds 15-20kts out of the NE during peak heating. Tonight some low stratocu builds overhead as the high to our north shifts offshore. This could result in drops to MVFR CIGS for coastal TAF sites (EWN, OAJ). Continue mention of lower cloud group but not forecasting it as a CIG at this time. No fog is expected through the TAF period with cool, dry air advecting in. Winds turn more Serly through the day Sunday with VFR flight cats in place. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Saturday...High pressure slides offshore Sunday with pred VFR conditions expected. A cold front approaches on Monday eventually tracking across ENC Mon night. This will bring increasing precip chances Sunday night and Monday with sub- VFR conditions possible. VFR conditions then return Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in from the north and west. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday Night/... As of 1530 Saturday...Post frontal NE`rly wind surge has crept through area waters leading to SCA conditions across most zones this morning. Northeasterly winds are 15-25kt gusting up to 30kts but by sunset today frequent gusts should fall below 25 kts. Seas have built to 4-7 ft and will linger through the day before starting to decrease this evening into tonight. The next SCA to expire will be for Pamlico Sound, currently scheduled to expire at 2200edt, but this will most likely be able to be dropped earlier. The remaining SCAs are for coastal waters and will drop off through the overnight with only central waters remaining under SCA through the morning due to 6ft seas outside of 15NM. Winds veer to become Eerly 10-15kt in the early morning hours. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Saturday...High pressure ridge will be centered off the East Coast Sun morning and push further offshore as the day wears on with Ely winds around 10-15kt veering to the SE and S throughout the day. Gradients tighten Sunday night and Monday ahead of the next cold front with SW winds at 10-20 kt Sun night into Monday and seas around 3-5 ft. The front pushes across the area Monday night with winds becoming Nly by Tuesday morning and will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late Tuesday and into Wed. In response to the higher N`rly winds, seas will also build Tue night into Wed to 4 to 6 ft once again bringing SCA conditions back to our waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1530 Saturday... - Elevated fire concerns rest of today. A noticeably drier airmass (RHs in the 30s and 40s percent) has moved into ENC today, and will overlap with breezy northeast winds (10-15 mph, gusts to 20+ mph) during peak heating in the afternoon. At face value, this appears supportive of elevated fire concerns. Of note, the lack of a widespread, killing freeze plus the recent stretch of warm weather, has allowed fine fuels to remain relatively green for the time of year. This should help offset the fire danger despite the breezy and dry conditions expected. So, in collaboration with the Forest Service, have opted to remain headline free. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...RM/RCF AVIATION...RM/CEB/RCF MARINE...RM/CEB/RCF FIRE WEATHER...MHX