586
FXUS62 KMHX 040702
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
302 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have cancelled Small Craft Advisory south of Ocracoke.

Made adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints today and
tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradually improving conditions today with a coastal low off
the coast.

2) Hotter conditions return this weekend.

3) Next chance of Precip Sun evening into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows low pressure
currently about 250 miles SE of Cape Hatteras slowly meandering
to the north and east with high pressure building in from the
west. As previously mentioned good radiational cooling night so
temps have gotten down into the 50s inland and 60s along the OBX
with a few upper 40s possible in the more sheltered areas this
morning.

Not much has changed with todays forecast as we remain dry with
less wind as high pressure becomes centered over the area. We
will have a seabreeze develop this afternoon moving inland by this
evening bringing some slightly gustier winds near 15-20 kts
directly behind the seabreeze. The warming trend continues with
high climbing back to near normal in the mid 80s inland and mid
to upper 70s along the coast.

While seas have finally subsided, there will be a high rip
current risk across beaches north of Cape Hatteras as well as
across Core Banks beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As we get into Friday and this weekend, low
offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high
pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will
bring steady S-SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses,
and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the low
to mid 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX Fri, Sat, and
Sun bringing a return to more summer like temps. Lows only get
down into the 60s/70s each night not providing much relief from
the heat each day. While we will stay below heat headline
criteria, the culmination of hot temps in the day and warm
temps at night are forecast to lead to an elevated risk of
seeing moderate HeatRisk impacts which would affect those
sensitive to heat and those without proper cooling or hydration.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Guidance is coming into better agreement that a
cold front will track across ENC Sunday night into Monday. This
front would bring our next best chance at some precipitation to
ENC Sun evening into Mon/Tue. Depending on the exact timing of
the front there would be an attendant thunderstorm risk as well,
though latest guidance does suggest with a nocturnal frontal
passage the thunderstorm threat would be minimal. Either way we
are monitoring trends in the fronts timing in case the
thunderstorm risk increases. Winds look to become NE`rly behind
this front and with low level thicknesses also lowering, this
will result in temps lowering towards the middle of next week
closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continued VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through Thurs
night. Light and variable to calm winds are forecast to
continue into this morning with winds becoming N`rly by mid
morning across ENC. Will note while not explicitly stated in the
TAFs there is a low (less than 10%) chance at some patchy
ground fog near daybreak. Though even if this did occur, it
would have no impact to operations. The seabreeze this afternoon
will lead to a southeasterly wind shift at the TAF sites with
gusts getting up to 15-20 kts directly behind the seabreeze for
a brief period.

Outlook: High pressure will remain centered offshore this
weekend before pushing out to sea ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds become S`rly by Friday with a daily chance at a
seabreeze through this weekend. Winds will remain light into
this weekend as well. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the weekend with high pressure in control of the
ambient weather. As we get into early next week a chance at some
sub-VFR conditions is noted as showers and tstms associated with
an incoming cold front could bring some reduced vis/ceilings to
ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away from the coast
today as high pressure builds in from the W. This will continue
to bring improving conditions through the end of the week.
Latest obs this morning show light N`rly winds generally 20 kts
or less across the inland waters, with 10-15 kt N-NE`rly winds
noted across the coastal waters, while seas along the coast are
generally around 3-5 ft outside of the central waters between
Ocracoke and Oregon Inlet where 4-7 ft seas are noted. This has
allowed just about all of the SCA`s to be dropped outside of the
central waters this morning. Guidance suggests winds will
become light and variable tonight while seas lower to 2-5 ft
ending the rest of the ongoing SCA`s and bringing benign
boating conditions to our water. Winds become S`rly by Fri
morning at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts Fri afternoon while
seas lower to 2-4 ft across our waters.

Outlook: A more typical warm-season pattern persists through the
weekend with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges
in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal
gradients. A frontal passage early next week will bring our next
wind shift and threat for showers and thunderstorms to our
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF