123
FXUS62 KMHX 250848
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area today and tonight. A cold
front with limited moisture will move through tomorrow, with
mild high pressure building in behind it through Wednesday. A
developing low pressure system and associated cold front will
bring unsettled weather to the region on Thanksgiving and
potentially into Friday. Much colder, but drier, conditions are
expected this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...Strong radiational cooling this morning has
resulted in temps reaching the low 40s already, with additional
cooling into the upper 30s possible by daybreak. This strong
cooling has also saturated the low levels and patchy fog has
started to develop across inland portions of Eastern NC. Expect
fog coverage to increase through the remaining nighttime hours,
and through it will be shallow, some moments of dense fog are
possible through sunrise.

A picture perfect late November day is expected today as
temperatures rise above average with high pressure ridging in
from the southeast. Abundant sunshine is anticipated which will
help boost temps into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Mon...High pressure centered to the southeast will
retreat overnight as a weak cold front moves in from the west.
Initially calm and clear skies are expected which will allow for
strong radiational cooling this evening with readings dropping
quickly into the upper 40s. As the front approaches overnight
the gradient will pick up and help curb any additional cooling.
Clouds will also increase early tomorrow morning as moisture
moves in from the west, but expect any precip to hold off until
later Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...

Key Messages:

- Multiple fronts will bring rain chances Tuesday, Thursday, &
  Friday

- Much cooler and drier weather is forecast this weekend and
  into early next week

Upper ridging will push east into the Atlantic on Tues as a
negatively tilted upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through midweek. At the surface, occluding low in
Canada will have its associated cold front stretch SW`wards
along the Appalachians at the start of the period. As we get
into Tue afternoon and evening low pressure will develop along
this front in the Northeastern CONUS and track NE`wards towards
the Canadian Maritimes while deepening, dragging the
aforementioned cold front E`wards through the day with this
front eventually pushing offshore Tue night. Zonal flow aloft
and high pressure at the surface will briefly take over on
Wed before a deeper upper trough begins to dig into the Eastern
Seaboard on Thurs and Fri. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough
sets up on Thurs out ahead of a deepening low in the Tennessee
River Valley. This low and its associated fronts will track
through the Mid-Atlantic Thurs and Thurs night bringing the most
impactful weather of the period to ENC. Cool high pressure
builds in afterwards resulting in much cooler temps this coming
weekend.

Tuesday...Tues will host the warmest temps of the week ahead of
a moisture starved cold front. Most places will be around 70.
Have seen a slight upward trend in precip chances with latest
00Z guidance coming in a bit more bullish on shower potential.
As a result have increased PoP`s slightly to low end chance with
the best chances at seeing any shower activity around or east
of Hwy 17 Tue afternoon and evening. Either way showers look
light and scattered at best. Our next shot of cold air will be
in this post-frontal air mass, which will send overnight lows
back into the 30s across the coastal plain.

Wednesday...Not much change in forecast reasoning, as high
pressure will briefly build over the Eastern Seaboard on Wed.
Temps will rebound to the low to mid 60s with mo clear skies.

Thursday and Friday...Our most impactful front of the week
tracks across ENC Thurs into Fri before pushing offshore Fri
morning bringing the greatest potential for widespread showers
and even a few thunderstorms. Biggest change was to increase
PoP`s slightly to high end Chc to low end likely Thurs afternoon
and evening. A pre-frontal trough will set up across ENC and
PoPs will increase through Thurs ahead of the FROPA, which
should cross ENC late Thurs night/early Fri morning. Models are
currently painting a high shear/low CAPE environment, so this
will continue to be monitored for severe potential. For now the
potential is low enough to preclude more than a brief mention in
the discussion, but a few stronger storms are certainly
possible with the frontal passage. In the post-frontal air mass
on Fri, highs will struggle to get out of the mid to upper 50s.

This weekend into early next week...Cool Canadian high pressure
quickly builds into the Eastern Seaboard behind the departing
front this weekend bringing a rather cold airmass over ENC. As a
matter of fact, CPC has highlighted the area to see a greater
than 80% chance of below avg temperatures this weekend. Highs
will generally remain in the 40s to low 50s during the day and
get into the 20s across the coastal plain (40s beaches)
overnight. Otherwise mo clear skies and dry weather are
forecast into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Mon...A mix of VFR and sub-VFR conditions are present
early this morning as patchy fog develops under calm and clear
skies. Expect fog to continue to spread through inland Eastern
NC over the course of the next few hours here before sunrise.
Though fog will be shallow, there could be some temporary
restrictions to IFR as visibilities drop to 1-2 miles at times.
VFR conditions will return soon after sunrise as fog burns off,
and expect mostly clear skies and light winds the rest of today
and through tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon... Will have two chances this week to see sub-VFR
conditions across ENC. The first will be on Tues as a cold
front tracks across the area. Latest guidance suggests some
scattered shower activity and lower ceilings will be possible
resulting in a low end threat for sub-VFR conditions into Tue
night before things quickly clear out from west to east. Winds
will veer from SW to NW as a cold front crosses the area, though
gusts are forecast to remain closer to 15 kts with this frontal
passage. Winds will continue to turn to the NE and then SE on
Wed and relax to around 5 kt. By Thurs, winds will become SW`rly
and increase to 10-15 kt as a pre-frontal trough sets up and
reintroduces rain chances. Chances for rain will peak Thursday
night with the passage of a cold front and this will likely be
the best shot at the area seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions.
Front pushes offshore on Fri allowing for VFR conditions to
return to ENC from west to east.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Mon...Good boating conditions will continue today
with high pressure over the area. Expect winds to be W/SW around
5-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft. Winds will pick up overnight as a
weak cold front approaches, becoming SW 15-20 kts by early
tomorrow morning with seas 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Mon...A cold front will bring elevated marine
conditions to our waters at the start of the period with the
strongest winds being found across our coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet. Latest guidance suggests winds will start around
15 kts out of the SW across our inland sounds and rivers while
across the coastal waters 15-20 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up
to 25 kts will persist into early Tue afternoon before the
front pushes through and shifts winds to a NW`rly direction at
10-15 kts overnight Tue. With this in mind have elected to hoist
SCA`s across our coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south towards
N Topsail Beach where the highest confidence in seeing SCA
conditions exists. Though expansion of the current SCA`s are
possible depending on how the forecast trends. 3-5 ft seas will
be common across the coastal waters on Tuesday as this front
moves through the area. Winds and seas will relax on Wed as
high pressure builds overhead, but rebound to SCA conditions on
Thurs (mainly south of Cape Hatteras). A tightened gradient
along a pre-frontal trough and ahead of an approaching cold
front will support increasing winds with winds peaking overnight
Thurs at 20-25kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas will build to
5-7 ft in response to the elevated winds. Elevated winds and
seas then persist into the weekend as the pressure gradient
remains tight.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF