723
FXUS62 KMHX 061745
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
145 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push offshore today. A cold front will move
through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 140PM Fri...Low pressure continues to pull away from the
region with light winds and widespread cloudcover over ENC
behind this departing low this afternoon. Have also seen a few
isolated convergence showers mainly along portions of Hyde and
Dare SW`wards into Carteret County with this activity slowly
pushing E`wards. Continue to expect some isolated shower
activity into late this afternoon before much if not all of the
area become precip free for now.

Prev Disc..The trend for today has been drier with only
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
Along the immediate coast, PoPs will decrease over the next few
hours as the low moves offshore. This afternoon, a shortwave
will move across the area and the seabreeze will become pinned
near the coast as surface winds veer from southwest to
northwest. This should prohibit showers and thunderstorms from
making it to the inner coastal plain, keeping the corridor of
highest PoPs east of Highway 17 and west of the Outer Banks.

Coastal plain high temps will be about 10 degrees warmer today (mid-
to upper-80s) while areas along the coast will be about the same as
yesterday (near 80). These temps, paired with dews in the low-70s,
will build instability and generate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Convective activity is expected to be isolated to widely scattered
at best, but a few stronger thunderstorms along the seabreeze remain
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:45 AM Friday...PoPs will decrease as the seabreeze
fizzles this evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a
mid-level shortwave will approach the area. This boundary will
increase cloud cover through the night, keeping lows mild near
70. PoPs will gradually increase at the end of the period ahead
of a potentially potent system progged to impact ENC on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
   and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of
   the long term.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and
0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around
1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall as well. Similar environmental conditions persist into
Sunday with another shortwave trough pushing across the
region bringing another round of strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has the region in a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday
with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Saturday looks to
be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s
inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Continued warm on
Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest
shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially
during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a
descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values
around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this
time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps
look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday morning/...
As of 140PM Fri...Yesterdays low pressure that had brought
widespread rain to the area is finally off the coast and
pushing further off to the north and east this afternoon while
behind it, widespread low and mid clouds persist as well as a
few convergence showers along the coast near Hyde/Dare and
Carteret County. This has brought widespread MVFR ceilings to
the region with MVFR ceilings hanging on mainly east of Hwy 17
this afternoon. While we do have some light shower activity
ongoing, expect showers to remain away from the TAF sites today
so have kept all TAF sites (EWN/OAJ/ISO/PGV) precip free this
afternoon. General expectation is for clouds to continue to lift
and any leftover MVFR ceilings to become VFR within the next
hour or two. Then expect light winds and VFR ceilings/vis
through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight. As we get
into Sat while skies and vis will remain VFR into Sat afternoon,
expect winds to become SW`rly at 5-10 kts with gusts up near
15kts by about midday.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through
much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3:50 AM Friday...Great boating conditions are expected
through the short term with sub-SCA winds and seas across all
waters. South of Cape Hatteras, 10-15 kt winds will remain
southwesterly. North of Cape Hatteras and closer to the surface
low, 10-15 kt winds will be more variable. These waters will
start out with south-southeasterly winds this morning, become
northwesterly by tonight, and southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
Seas will generally be 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday
but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW
winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with
strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the
diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front
approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the
gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/OJC