062
FXUS62 KMHX 050138
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
938 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored offshore through the weekend.
The next cold front then impacts the region early next week.
High pressure builds in from the west for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM Friday...Sprawling Bermuda high continues to
extend over the coastal southeast CONUS this evening but
backdoor front continues to edge southward, now draped just
south of the NC/VA border. Seeing a few showers already
beginning to develop along the frontal convergence zone well to
the west, and continued to maintain slight chance of PoPs across
far northern forecast area. Did remove mention of thunder from
the grids for first couple of hours given low ensemble
probabilities and no observed lightning with on going showers.

Much of the hi-res guidance is egregiously developing
widespread sea fog/stratus along the coast (likely due to model
SSTs being much too cool). Removed this signal from the forecast
but maintained the develop of low stratus early Sat morning in
moist and steady southwesterly flow. Temps will continue to be
mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
 -Near Record High Temperatures possible Saturday

As of 315 PM Friday...Upper level pattern amplifies on Sat as a
positively tilted trough digs into the Western CONUS while
upper ridging continues to build across the Eastern CONUS. At
the mid levels and surface, high pressure ridging will remain
centered offshore in the Sargasso Sea allowing for dry weather
and steady SW`rly flow to continue across eastern NC. At the
same time a stalled front to the north of NC will lift further
north as a warm front. SW`rly flow will advect a warm and moist
airmass to ENC this weekend. Continued mid and upper level
moisture advection should bring fairly widespread cloud cover to
ENC Sat morning with skies clearing as we go through the
afternoon. Depending on how quickly the cloudcover dissipates
will determine how warm we get, but either way, with ongoing
WAA, still expecting temps to remain well above normal Sat.
ECWMF EFI values remain close to the 80th-90th percentile on
Sat, while NAFES surface and 850 mb temps remain around 1-2 SD
above normal. This should allow highs; to get to the mid to
upper 80s inland, while the beaches and OBX see highs into upper
70s to low 80s which will be near record to record setting for
early April.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Fri...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures possible over the
weekend

Saturday night...No significant changes to the forecast since
the previous update. Upper level pattern amplifies on Sat as a
positively tilted trough digs into the Western CONUS while upper
ridging continues to build across the Eastern CONUS. Upper
trough does gradually push E`wards into the Plains by Sun
morning. Lows will remain elevated Sat night only getting down
into the 60s.

Sunday and Monday...Upper level trough broadens as it continues
to push E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the
mid levels, shortwave rounding the base of this trough also
pushes E`wards across the Deep South and nears the coast on Mon
while a second potent shortwave dives SE`wards across the Great
Lakes on Mon as upper level ridging finally begins to push
E`wards Sun into Mon further out into the Atlantic. At the
surface, a cold front will gradually push E`wards across the
Carolinas on Sun eventually pushing offshore by Mon night. This
front is expected to bring widespread cloudcover, rain, and
thunderstorms to ENC. Guidance continues to hint at Mon being
the primary day for precip and given the increased confidence in
precip now have categorical PoPs in the forecast for Monday. The
general forecast trend has been towards a very slow progression
of the front through Eastern NC Monday, and this will increase
the potential that some warmer temperatures and instability
develops ahead of the front. Given the strong kinematic
environment, instability will be a critical factor in
determining whether or not updrafts/thunderstorms can become
organized. Given the trend, at least a low chance of severe
thunderstorms and strong wind gusts will be possible Monday.

Most Global and Ensemble guidance suggests a rather beneficial
rain on Mon with QPF amounts increasing slightly with rainfall
totals of 1-3 locally 4+ inches now forecast with this front.
This may bring some minor flash flooding concerns to our more
urban areas especially if the higher end amounts do materialize.
Given the potential for higher end amounts, WPC has placed the
entire area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Monday as well. Last of the well above normal temps occurs on
Sun with near record highs once again possible before cloud
cover and rain on Mon brings temps back down to normal.

Tuesday through Thursday...Broad upper troughing remains over
the Eastern Seaboard from Tue into midweek swinging the
proverbial temperature pendulum the complete opposite way with
temps forecast to be well below normal Tue and Wed with record
low temps possible Tue night which would bring frost concerns to
the Coastal Plain. Will note forecast confidence quickly
decreases towards the end of the period, as the upper level
pattern becomes more chaotic with differences in trough
orientation and potential shortwave progression which could
impact whether we see another round of precip later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Sun/...
As of 730 PM Fri...VFR conditions persist across area terminals
this evening as Bermuda high extends over the coastal Carolinas
and a weakening backdoor front edges its way southward out of
Virginia this hour. Continue to step away on cloud coverage
forecast tonight, especially as LAMP guidance is erroneously
showing widespread sea fog/stratus which is artificially
inflating sub-VFR probs for near-shore terminals including EWN
and OAJ. Still wouldn`t be shocked to see at least some spotty
sct-bkn stratus early tomorrow morning given moist SW flow, and
maintained a prevailing sct MVFR deck for this time frame.

Little change in the pattern tomorrow, which will resemble more
of a summer-like look with gusty southwesterly winds up to 20 kt
at times and diurnal cu developing in the afternoon. Dry weather
will prevail.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri... Sub-VFR conditions possible each morning
over the weekend as a warm and moist airmass will be in place
resulting in a general threat for low stratus. Low stratus
should mix out each day by midday bringing a return to VFR
conditions each afternoon and evening. SW`rly winds will be
breezy each day, though they will be the strongest on Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west allowing for SW`rly winds
to gust closer to 20-25 kts at times Sun afternoon. Then expect
sub-VFR conditions Sunday night into Monday as a cold front
tracks across the region bringing widespread low clouds and
rain/thunderstorm activity to ENC. Visibilities could also be
reduced in any thunderstorm that impacts the region as well.
Front pushes offshore by Mon evening allowing clouds to clear
out from west to east on Tuesday bringing a return to VFR
conditions, though winds will become NW`rly on Tue behind the
front.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Friday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the waters through the weekend. Late this evening a back door
cold front will sag south into the northern waters and Albemarle
Sound, then drift back north towards daybreak. Tonight SW winds
will continue 10-20 kt with flow briefly becoming
easterly/variable 10 kt across the northern waters/Albemarle
Sound behind the front. Late Sat the predominate SW flow will
strengthen to 15-20 kt gusting to 25 kt as diurnal heating
enhances the flow. Seas 2-4 ft through much of Sat building to
3-5 ft late. The gradient will further increase Sat night as
cold front slowly approaches from the W. Thus we have issued SCA
for most of the eastern NC waters beginning late Sat and
continuing through the weekend.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri... Pressure gradient will tighten Sat night
ahead of a cold front resulting in SW`rly winds increasing to
15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Sat evening and then
to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts across all our waters
later Saturday night. Seas across our coastal waters will also
increase to 4 to 6 ft by Sun morning given the elevated winds.
As a result SCAs have been issued for most of the coastal waters
and inland sounds/rivers beginning Sat. evening.

Elevated winds and seas continue through Monday as SW`rly winds
remain around 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and seas
increase further to 4-7 ft. Cold front eventually tracks across
ENC and pushes offshore on Monday bringing widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity to our waters Sunday night into Monday.
Front eventually begins to push out to sea Monday afternoon into
Tuesday which should allow any ongoing rain and thunderstorm
activity to end by Tue morning while winds shift to a NW`rly
direction behind the front at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
at times. Winds remain elevated into the end of the period. Seas
will also remain around 4-7 ft as well into the end of the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Saturday 04/05

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         88/1942  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       89/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    82/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          91/1942  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1986  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Sunday 04/06

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         90/2010  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       91/2010  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    83/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1929  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     87/2010  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 10 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/ZC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SGK/RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...JME/SGK/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX