Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
914 FXUS62 KMHX 282301 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday bringing periods of locally heavy rainfall across ENC. 2) Heat increases next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend as an upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS and a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered thunderstorms continue to blossom to the west and north early this evening as the upper trough and sfc front continues to slowly move toward the area. An iso stronger storm with gusty winds will be possible over the next few hours, but threat continues to wane with loss of heating and instability. PW values remain high with 2.2" observed in the 12z/28 KMHX sounding and stronger storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates bringing the threat for localized flooding and WPC continues a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region. The upper trough and attendant front move into the area overnight with the threat for showers and thunderstorms continuing but do not anticipate severe storms as instability and shear wanes. Continued unsettled on Saturday but the upper trough begins to lift north of the area with height rises aloft and weakening dynamics throughout the day bringing a minimal threat for severe thunderstorms but there remains a marginal risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper ridging builds into the region from the west for the early to mid portion of next week bringing lower chances for showers and thunderstorms although cannot rule out isolated storms along the sea breeze through peak heating. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid 90s as we move into the middle of the week with heat headlines possible, Wednesday, Thursday and possibly lingering into Friday with heat index values in the range of 105-115deg possible. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- # Expect pred VFR through late evening, outside of iso/sct convection. Decent probabilities for fog and stratus development again late tonight with sub-VFR stratus potentially lingering through much of Saturday morning as plenty of low level moisture remains in place, highest probs across western terminals. Probs have increased a tick for IFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Saturday afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions. && .MARINE... Currently seeing S to Swrly winds around 5-15 kt with higher gusts near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 2-4 ft. A weakening front will move into the waters tonight and stall bringing light winds mainly 10 kt or less through Saturday and seas subsiding to 1-3 ft. An active weather pattern will remain in place over the weekend with thunderstorms bringing periods of locally stronger winds and higher seas, especially during the late night and morning hours. Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/CEB AVIATION...CQD/SK/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB