750
FXUS62 KMHX 041922
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
222 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Carolinas through Wednesday.
Dry cold front crosses late Wed night/early Thu with high
pressure building back in to round out the week. Another cold
front moves through this weekend with a slight chance for
precip. Much stronger arctic front moves through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tue...Very pleasant weather unfolding across much
of the southern CONUS this afternoon including the Carolinas as
region remains under the influence of zonal flow while weak
mid-level ridge is centered over the northwestern Gulf. At the
surface, expansive high pressure sits over much of the Southeast
and will remain in place through tomorrow.

Clear skies and mostly calm winds expected tonight as high
pressure shifts overhead. Center of the ridge axis will be over
southwestern counties tonight, while across the north a light
southwesterly wind may remain in response to deepening low
pressure quickly traversing the Great Lakes and northeastern
CONUS. Good radiational cooling is likely tonight with lows
falling into the mid to upper 30s, and some patchy frost seems
probable in well sheltered areas of the coastal plain and
southwestern counties. Given the likely isolated nature of frost
development and after coordination with neighbors, opted not to
put up a Frost Advisory this package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tue...High pressure shifts offshore tomorrow with
strengthening and breezy southwesterly flow, ahead of deepening
low pressure over southern Canada. Resultant WAA will result in
temps climbing back to around 70 for highs. RHs will also fall
to around 30-35%, especially west of Highway 17. In normal
circumstances, this would raise fire weather concerns. However,
the recent rains have kept our soils relatively saturated and
because of this no IFD statement will be issued for tomorrow
after coordination with neighboring offices and forestry
officials.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Wed through Fri...Overall a mild and dry pattern. Dry cool
front moves through late Wed night into early Thu only bringing
a wind shift from sw to nwrly. Highs generally 65 to 70 each
day, near climo for first week of Nov. Lows will be in the 40s.

Sat through Sun...Next cold front will move through this
weekend, though appears to be fairly moisture starved, and will
go no higher than 20% pops attm. Have introduced slgt chc
thunder, as some 04/00Z guidance has instability present with
this system. Not much of a cooldown behind the fropa as flow
will cont zonal, which means seasonable temps cont with highs
around 70 for most, and lows in the 50s Sat night, and 40s Sun
night.

Monday...Much stronger reinforcing cold front set to move
through by early in the week, bringing first arctic blast of the
season, with highs expected only in the 50s and lows 30-35, and
the possibility for the first freeze of the season for parts of
ENC, most likely interior zones.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday afternoon/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...Predominant VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period due to high pressure cresting over the
area today, and pushing off the NC coast tonight. NW winds this
afternoon will become light westerly overnight, which should
keep us mixed enough inhibit fog development. SKC again expected
for Wednesday with high pressure offshore. Light winds in the
morning become westerly, gusting upwards of 15 kt by Wed
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through much
of the long term period. The high moves farther offshore late
Wednesday, followed by a dry cold front that will move through
Eastern NC late Wednesday night. Winds will remain southwesterly
Wednesday night, with some guidance indicating low-level wind
shear could be an issue for the Coastal Plain, including KPGV
and KISO TAF sites from 00-06Z Thursday. The front will be
moisture starved, so do not anticipate any sub-VFR conditions.

High pressure builds back over the area from the NW on Thursday,
shifting offshore by Friday. Unsettled weather returns for
Saturday/Sunday with sub-VFR conditions possible for the
weekend.
Friday

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 225 PM...SCA conditions still holding on across central
waters as seas here are slow to fall (recent buoy obs still
sitting at 6-7 feet), but expect all waters to be SCA free by
this evening as high pressure settles over area waters. Respite
will be short lived as southwest winds increase in response to
deepening low pressure over southern Canada. By Wed afternoon,
winds will be back up to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, lingering
through Thursday morning. Cooling soundside waters may hamper
mixing modestly but likely not enough to fully abate SCA-level
gusts. Seas offshore rise to 4-7 feet in response.

LONG TERM /Wed night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Winds will come around to the SW by Wednesday
morning, and then strengthen to 15-25 kts by the afternoon.
Winds will peak at 20-30 kts ahead of a cold front Wednesday
night, and then switch to the NNW Thursday at 15-25 kts. Winds
weaken Thursday night and become easterly by Friday morning at
5-15 kts. Winds switch yet again to srly on Sat but appear to
remain below SCA criteria, with speeds of 10-20 kt.

Seas at 5-7 ft attm will subside to 3-5 ft by later today. 2-4
ft seas expected tonight, with an increase to 5-7 ft expected
Wednesday night. Waves drop down to mostly 2-5 ft Thursday into
weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...TL/MS