200
FXUS62 KMHX 220730
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin is forecast to lift further out to sea today,
although significant coastal impacts will continue across parts
of the Outer Banks. High pressure builds in through early in
the weekend. A weak coastal low may bring light rain on Sunday,
with high pressure reestablishing itself next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Signifcant coastal impacts from Hurricane Erin will continue
today, especially along the Outer Banks

- Dry, slightly cooler, and less humid

High pressure will build into the area today as Hurricane Erin
continues to depart to the northeast. Winds will remain out of the
north/northeast today and steadily ease as the pressure gradient
relaxes. This flow will advect cooler and drier air into the area,
resulting in cooler temps in the low- to mid-80s and, more notably,
dewpoints falling to the mid- to upper-60s.

Although Hurricane Erin will get progressively farther from our
coast today, continued elevated water levels from strong winds,
higher than normal astronomical tides, lingering powerful swell
energy and wave run up, and compromised dune structures will prolong
significant coastal impacts, especially along Outer Banks Dare
County. Additional coastal impacts are expected farther south as
well (see the  TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Friday...A quiet night is in store with high pressure
still in control. Winds will be light out of the northeast with lows
ranging from the low-60s across northwestern zones to near 70 along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Saturday...Lingering coastal impacts on parts of the OBX will
continues due large backswell from Erin. Sensible weather
impacts improve as high builds in. Mainly dry wx and seasonably
warm temps expected as the high remains through the end of the
week.

Sunday...Weak low pres may zip up the Southeastern Seaboard the
end of the weekend, bringing some rain to the coast. Best
chances for rain are the coastal counties, where pops are in the
50-70% range, with much lesser chances inland, and pops remain
in the 30-40% range.

Monday through Thursday...High pres reestablishes itself by
early next week, and therefore pops no higher than 10-20% are
forecast. Seasonably mild temps in the fcst with highs in the
80s and lows 65-70 forecast, which is very near climo for the
last week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1:15 AM Friday...A shield of MVFR stratus is
overpsreading the area with southwest zones being the last to
hang on to VFR SKC. Confidence in the overnight TAF forecast is
lower than normal as guidance has been playing catch up in terms
of coverage and height of the ongoing stratus. If the trend
remains the same as the past few nights, MVFR stratus will hang
on until after sunrise before scattering out. Conditions will be
closely monitored and amended as needed. With high pressure
building across the area today, VFR flight conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period with fair weather
cu and light NNE winds.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Mainly dry weather cont on Sat, though light
rain chances for Sun could bring periods of sub VFR esp to the
coastal areas. High pres returns as the work week begins.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2:20 AM Friday...Hurricane Erin will continue to pull
away to the northeast today, which will relax the pressure
gradient and ease the winds. Although seas will start to ease as
well, powerful back swell will continue through the period.
Northerly winds will gradually veer to the northeast today and
decrease from 15-25 kt this morning to 10-15 kt by early
Saturday. Seas are currently 10-15 ft at 13-14 seconds north of
Ocracoke Inlet (highest off Oregon Inlet) and 5-10 ft at 10-13
seconds to the south. By early Saturday morning, seas are
forecast to decrease to 5-10 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 4-7
ft to the south. Therefore, SCAs will continue for all coastal
waters through the period.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Light winds for the weekend into early next
week, though lingering long period 6+ ft swell will linger from
departing Erin.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages:

- Significant impacts from Hurricane Erin are likely to continue
  across Outer Banks Dare County south of Oregon Inlet through
  this evening`s high tide cycle due to the following factors:
  1)continued elevated water levels from strong winds 2) higher
  than normal astronomical tides 3) lingering powerful swell
  energy and wave run up 4) compromised dune structures from
  repeated inundation. Water level rises of 2-3 ft AGL (above
  ground level) are possible with locally higher amounts.

- Storm Surge Warnings have been transitioned to Coastal Flood
  Warnings, and elsewhere Surge/Coastal Flood Warnings have been
  transitioned to Coastal Flood Advisories where nuisance
  flooding may impact some properties, with limited to no travel
  impacts anticipated.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected to cont into the
  weekend, esp on the OBX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ195-
     196-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX