423
FXUS62 KMHX 061940
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Capped thunder chances for much of the area the rest of today
into tonight. Added Pamlico Sound to the existing SCAs already
out. Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week with a warming trend developing the latter of the
upcoming week ahead of the next front to impact the area FRI
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity
will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early
September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early
next week. Still some residual moisture lingering today and will
likely see sct showers into the early evening. Capped thunder
chances at slight (20%) for the bulk of the area. Best chances
of seeing more than a light rain shower are across the SWern
corner of Duplin co with an ongoing MCS approaching the area,
but think the worst of it will stay JUST S of the FA. Then
Early week trend is drier as high pressure builds in from the
north. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and is
where our temps should be for the first half of September. Heat
builds back from WED onward with strengthening Serly flow in the
low levels and ridging aloft expanding over ECONUS ahead of the
next upper trough to shunt a cold front toward ENC FRI and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAF sites across the area are showing VFR flight cats but there
is some FEW-SCT MVFR clouds floating around. Scattered showers
and an iso tstorm possible into this evening which would be the
best chance for tempo subVFR conditions. Any convection should
dissipate with loss of heating. Sub- VFR cigs may redevelop
overnight and early Mon morning, though model trends have been
limiting this to the immediate coast and offshore. Light NEerly
breeze should preclude any chances of fog developing; PGV would
have the best chance with this terminal being the closest to the
forecast decoupling of the low level winds.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): High pressure will build in
from the north through mid week. Pred VFR conditions expected,
with potential for periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show N-NE winds 5-10kt over far inland waters,
10-15G20kt over larger sounds and coastal waters. Seas 2-4 ft
with three main swell groups: 1ft out of SE @9sec, 1ft@5-6sec
out of the S and 2-4ft wind waves out of the NE. NE-ENEerly
winds will continue to strengthen tonight 15-25 kt with seas
building to 4-6 ft. SCAs continue for the coastal waters
beginning tonight. Have added Pamlico Sound to the SCA list
through daylight hours MON with 25kt gust probable across the
Eern half of the Sound. Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt
will continue into Monday, with seas building to 4-8 ft,
highest across the outer waters. SCA conditions expected.

Outlook (Tue through Thu): Winds and seas will begin to ease
Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in. SW winds 5-15 kt
return Wed night and Thu with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB