645
FXUS62 KMHX 172329
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area this weekend. Hurricane
Erin is expected to pass offshore, but significant coastal
impacts are likely mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sun...Pleasant day ongoing across eastern NC this
afternoon with weak mid-level troughing on the eastern periphery
of a broad ridge centered over the southern plains. At the
surface, weak ridge of high pressure is building into the region
from the west as stubborn area of low pressure continues to
linger well off the NC coast. This low is playing a role in our
lower than normal Tds (sitting in the mid to upper 60s),
entraining drier off the mid-Atlantic coast.

Dry weather continues this afternoon thanks to this dry air,
continuing into tonight with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 as
the offshore low finally begins to migrate eastward and surface
high crests over the region. Some spotty shallow fog is again
possible tonight, although the drier airmass will likely inhibit
anything more widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sun...Cold front currently draped just south of
the Great Lakes is expected to migrate southward through the
mid- Atlantic and towards the Carolinas tomorrow morning ahead
of an embedded shortwave progressing through mid-level
northwesterlies over southeastern Canada. Deeper moisture is
expected to pool ahead of this boundary, as characterized by
PWATs jumping back north of 2" by Mon afternoon. Combined with
increasing instability north of 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE and
sufficient lift from the convergence along the frontal boundary
and diurnal sea breezes, at least iso to widely sct showers and
thunderstorms are probable. Shear is very weak (less than 10
kt), so cells will be slow moving and may pose a localized
flooding risk given favorable environment for heavy rainfall.

Highs climb into the low 90s. With Tds returning back into the
low to mid 70s, it will feel like 100-105 especially south of
Highway 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - High pressure keeps the area mostly dry through early next week

 - Hurricane Erin, which is still forecast to remain offshore,
   will make its closest pass Wednesday/Thursday, with
   significant coastal impacts


Tuesday...North/northeast flow will persist through the period,
but building heights and plenty of sunshine will send temps
into the mid-80s/low-90s. Diurnal seabreeze precip is possible
in the afternoon, but chances are relatively low (<30%) through
early next week.

Wednesday - Saturday...Hurricane Erin is forecast to remain well
offshore but make its closest pass to our coast late Wednesday/early
Thursday. The impacts from Erin are expected to be confined to
marine and coastal interests, but with a slight westward trend in
the track over the past 24 hours, confidence in hazardous conditions
has increased (see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
details). If the track were to shift slightly more westward,
there is potential for the Outer Banks to see a brief period of
tropical storm force wind gusts. PoPs will be greater during
the second half of the week due to a cold front that`s forecast
to drop across the mid- Atlantic Wed/Thur and then stall to our
south Fri/Sat. Behind the front, there`s a signal for a brief
period of lower Tds falling into the 60s for some of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Tues/...
As of 730 PM Sun...VFR conditions continue to prevail over area
terminals this evening with weak high pressure centered to the
west. Relatively drier air is in place across ENC, with
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s inland to near 70 along the
coast. This has kept skies clear for most of the day and is
expected to limit cloud cover overnight. Light northerly winds
will decouple tonight. While dry air should also limit any
widespread/dense fog potential, some shallow, patchy fog is
possible during the early morning hours. Coverage of any patchy
fog is expected to remain limited, however.

Dry conditions with fair weather Cu expected Monday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. Enhanced convergence between
the cold front and sea breeze is expected to yield scattered
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Have introduced
PROB30 groups for all terminals after ~18Z Monday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected outside of any showers/thunderstorms
through 00Z Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...High pressure will keep conditions mostly
dry through Tuesday with higher PoPs Wednesday-Thursday.
Predominantly N/NE winds will persist through the period with
stronger gusts (15- 20 kt) expected on Thursday as Hurricane
Erin makes its closest pass to our coast. A threat of fog and
low stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 200 PM Sun...Persistent north to northeasterly winds
continue over area waters, sandwiched between weak high pressure
to the west and lingering offshore low to the east. Winds ease
overnight as low eventually departs offshore, but likely veer
northerly to easterly as backdoor cold front crosses the region
late Mon morning. Peak winds through the period reach no higher
than 15 kt, and wind-driven SCA headlines are unlikely. However,
stronger swell from TC Erin will likely begin to bleed into
offshore waters by Mon evening.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...Marine conditions will deteriorate
through Thursday as Hurricane Erin makes its closest pass to our
coast and brings gusty winds and powerful long period swell.
N/NE flow will increase from 10-20 kt on Monday to 20-30 kt with
gusts to 25-40 kt early Thursday. Seas will build from 4-6 ft
on Monday to 15-20+ ft at 15-17 seconds late Wednesday. Marine
conditions will be most treacherous across the coastal waters
between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout, but all waters will be
hazardous through the rest of the week. Wave heights and wind
gusts are subject to change and will be highly dependent on
Erin`s exact track and intensity.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Coastal Flood Watches and High Surf Advisories have been
  issued for the coast, with potential for moderate to
  significant coastal inundation and extensive beach erosion.

- Life threatening rip currents likely this week.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but powerful
Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats along
the coast. Coastal flooding/ocean overwash is likely,
especially around high tide. Impacts are expected to start as
early as Tuesday, peak Wednesday into Thursday, and diminish
late week. While all area beaches are expected to see impacts, E
to SE facing beaches are most likely to see the strongest swell
and roughest surf zone conditions. Hatteras and Ocracoke
Islands could experience major coastal impacts, including
portions of Highway 12 and secondary roads which may become
impassable and/or inaccessible in places for several days.

Based on the current forecast track, flooding will mainly be
focused along the oceanside. However, if track shifts more
westward, there is potential for minor soundside flooding if
stronger winds develop over the Pamlico Sound.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     morning for NCZ196-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...OJC/ZC
MARINE...MS/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX