398
FXUS62 KMHX 032316
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary approaches ENC today, with chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze this
afternoon. High pressure builds in from the west through the
holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast. There is a chance for tropical development
along this stalled boundary later this weekend, which is
expected to bring increased rain chances into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...

Key messages:

- Lower coverage of showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
  although risk of isolated flash flooding remains.

Surface frontal boundary remains stalled over the Piedmont of
NC, leaving eastern NC in weak southerly but warm and muggy
flow. Front is forecast to edge eastward through the overnight,
eventually stalling off the Southeast US coast.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected to be much less than
yesterday; however, with PWATs still between 1.50-2" and very
slow forecast storm motions, periods of heavy rainfall are still
in the cards with a risk of isolated flash flooding. Most
favored area for convection is along and east of the Highway 17
corridor, along the slow moving sea breeze. Additional
development is possible upstream along the stalled and diffuse
frontal boundary across central NC and southeast VA. Some of the
latest high-res guidance shows a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms making it to our northwest counties, so have
added slight chance PoPs through the afternoon.

Convection will gradually dissipate this evening with the loss
of diurnal heating. Mostly clear skies are expected, with lows
falling into the low to mid-70s. Similar to last night, winds
are expected to remain light, a moist boundary layer. Thus,
conditions are expected to be favorable for at least some patchy
fog overnight. Any fog is expected to quickly mix out early
Friday morning after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...A mid-level shortwave rounding the base
of a closed low over southern Quebec will push a weak
reinforcing cold front south into our CWA early Friday. Renewed
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
this front and the sea breeze, with current high-res guidance
indicating coverage may be slightly greater than today. Highs
are forecast around 90, with max apparent temperatures in the
upper-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Increasing tropical moisture ahead of a weak area of low
   pressure will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms
   this weekend

 - Tropical or subtropical development is possible this
   weekend/early next week off the southeast coast

High pressure will remain to the north and east this weekend,
but increasing tropical moisture from the south will lead to
building chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Rain
chances will be highest (40-55%) over southern NC Saturday with
with a tight gradient to mostly dry conditions along and north
of US 64. Better rain chances expected Sunday as moisture
overspreads all of ENC. Heavy rain will be possible with PWATs
surging above 2.5".

A low pressure system is then forecast to develop along a
stalled boundary near Florida or the southeast coast over the
weekend. NHC is giving this disturbance a 60% chance of
becoming a tropical or subtropical depression with guidance
showing north or northeastward movement thereafter. A lot of
uncertainty remains, but regardless of where this system
ultimately moves, higher than normal daily rain chances can be
expected through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 715 PM Thurs...Widespread VFR conditions are noted across
the CWA this evening with just a few isolated pop up showers
ongoing along the seabreeze near Jacksonville. Any leftover
shower activity should quickly dissipate by about 00Z and bring
little in the way of impacts to the area. As we get into tonight
light and variable winds are expected and with low level
moisture pooling out ahead of a weak front, there is at least a
low end threat for some patchy fog. Current HREF probs have a
30-50% chance a vis less than 5 miles while NBM has 20-40%
chances of this occuring. As a result and slightly higher
confidence of at least some patchy fog, have included some MVFR
vis or a SCT005 cloud deck at all TAF sites starting between
04-07Z. Fog threat will likely remain along the Coastal Plain
and remain along and west of about Hwy 17. Any patchy fog that
does develop will quickly burn off by 12Z with VFR conditions
expected through at least 18Z.

Tomorrow, light northeasterly winds are expected with a chance
of showers/thunderstorms Fri late morning and afternoon along
the sea breeze and a weak cold front.THis could bring brief
period of sub-VFR conditions but given low confidence in exact
impacts at all TAF sites have kept TAF`s tstm free on this
update.

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Friday. Increasing rain chances this weekend through
early next week will introduce a threat for extended periods of
sub-VFR conditions, with the best chances during the afternoon
and evening each day.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 2 PM Thurs...

Key Messages

 - Good boating conditions through the 4th of July with light
   winds and only scattered rain chances

Winds are still light and variable early this afternoon, but
will eventually turn to the S/SW at 5-15 by late this afternoon.
Overnight winds again become light and variable, and then shift
to the ENE/NE tomorrow at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 PM Thurs...Winds will be generally ESE to SE at 10-20
kts Saturday and Sunday, and shift to the SW Monday and Tuesday.
During this time a weak low will move along the SE coast, and
could acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. If this
occurs and it were to strengthen, stronger winds to
Gale/Tropical Storm force would be possible across the marine
waters.

Regardless of development, hazardous seas may develop due to the
long southerly fetch, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed
sometime early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...SGK/RCF/ZC
MARINE...SGK