731
FXUS62 KMHX 212322
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
722 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled pattern through much of this week with at least a
risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday until cold
front crosses the area Thu. The main concern is the potential
for heavy rain and flash flooding early Thursday through
Thursday evening. Localized flood threat could continue Friday
into the weekend.

2) After the strong front moves through the area Thursday, a
brief reprieve from the heat, though showers and tstorms chances
remain above climo until next weekend keeping daily localized
flooding concerns in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Convection has waned quickly with loss of
heating this evening. Iso shower/storm will be possible
overnight, with best chances across the northern tier.

Biggest change today has been the slight delay compared to the
00Z suite of the frontal passage with the front not getting
into the area until Thurs which has slightly delayed the
heaviest precip until Thursday across ENC.

As we get into Wed night/Thurs and into this weekend,
previously mentioned frontal boundary will track across the
area Thurs and stall offshore with multiple mid level shortwaves
tracking across the Mid-Atlantic into this weekend bringing
elevated rain and thunderstorm chances to ENC over the next
several days. Moisture increases ahead of this front with low to
midlevel flow opening up moisture advection channel from the E
side of what is now Tropical Storm Bertha. The National
Hurricane Center continues issuing advisories for Bertha, but
poses no tropical threat to ENC at this time, as it is forecast
to meander slowly W across the Nern Gulf of America. The
greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Wed
associated with a prefrontal trough, with the threat shifting
to more of a hydro threat Thurs.

For Wed expect leftover cloudcover in the morning to mix out and
lift into the afternoon hours. With a warm and moist environment
in place across ENC through the day, this is forecast to allow
for MLCAPE values to reach 2000-3000 J/kg in the afternoon
hours. With a prefrontal trough likely setting up across ENC
out ahead of the incoming front and the seabreeze moving inland
this should be the focus for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again with activity near the
coast in the morning and moving inland as the afternoon wears
on. Once again there would be a low end threat for a wet
microburst or strong downdraft wind gust (40-60 mph) within the
strongest storms. ENC is once again in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms tomorrow with a sliver or NW`rn Martin
County in a slight risk (levels 1 & 2 of 5). The severe risk
decreases greatly on Thurs as ongoing rain and cloudcover likely
inhibits instability, but this threat then transitions to a
flash flooding risk.

Out ahead of the strong front, moisture is forecast to pool in
ENC. This will allow the already high PWATS of around 2" to
increase further closer to 2.25-2.75" on Wed and persist across
the area through Thurs. As mentioned above, latest guidance has
slowed slightly with the frontal passage with this front likely
not entering into the area until Thurs morning. All available
guidance has showers and thunderstorms developing and training
along and just out ahead of the slow moving front Thurs. With
PWAT`s well over 2", a deep warm cloud layer, long skinny CAPEs,
and ample moisture forecast across ENC the environment will be
primed for a flash flooding risk. This risk begins Wed and
maximizes Thurs. WPC currently has the area under a slight risk
for flash flooding (level 2/4) for Wednesday with general
rainfall amounts between 0.25-0.75" possible with the highest
amounts focused along the northern tier of counties.

However, as we get into Thurs most available deterministic and
AI guidance is suggesting 24 hour rainfall totals between 2-4"
with locally higher amounts possible across ENC. This is
supported by the output from the ECMWF EFI where we are
exceeding the 80th/90th percentile and seeing a SOT of 1-2 for
24 hour QPF across the area which is indicative of a potential
extreme event across the area for 24 hour rainfall totals on
Thurs. Heaviest amounts look to be focused north of Hwy 70 with
lower amounts noted along the Crystal Coast. This coincides with
Ensemble and NBM probs with a 40-70% chance of seeing greater
than 2" of rainfall over 24hrs in these areas. As a result WPC
has place portions of ENC north of Hwy 70 under a moderate risk
for flash flooding (level 3/4) with areas south of Hwy 70 still
in a slight risk (level 2/4). Any shower or thunderstorm that
develops will be an efficient rainmaker and rainfall rates of
2-3" an hour will not be out of the question which could
overwhelm drainage and urban areas in a short amount of time
resulting in a broader flash flooding risk Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By Thu night front is forecast to make it
through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall
offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into
the weekend, cutting down on the heat (low to mid 80s/upper 60s
splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind
the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the
forecast could lead to hydro issues as precip will compound on
itself so the threshold for additional flash flooding will be
lower Fri into the weekend. We do look to finally dry out by
early next week as ridging builds across the region but the next
few days certainly look to be the wettest of 2026 for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across the terminals early this evening. SW`rly
winds will remain elevated through tonight with sustained winds
around 10-15 kts and gusts up around 20-25 kts. Expect these
winds to help keep the fog threat down. Low level stratus
possible, which could bring periods of MVFR between 9-15z. Any
lower stratus that develops should lift with mixing by mid
morning. Iso to widely scattered showers and storms expected in
the afternoon and evening. Will leave out of TAFs for now.
Better shower chances after 00z.

Outlook (Wed night through Sunday): A stronger front approaches
late Wed and into Thurs, renewing stronger shower and
thunderstorm chances WED. This front will stall offshore on
Thurs evening where it will linger into the weekend, keeping
rain and subVFR flight cat threat up through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Made some slight tweaks to the forecast over the next 24 hours
but in general ongoing SCAs remain across all waters as of this
updated with SW`rly winds at 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25 kts
ongoing. The pressure gradient tightens this evening as a strong
front begins to approach from the N and W allowing winds to
increase further to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts across all
waters this afternoon with 5-8 ft seas. Have upgraded the gale
watches to warnings across the outer coastal waters north of
Ocracoke Inlet as this is where I have the highest confidence in
seeing wind gusts in excess of 35 kts. Have placed a strongly
worded small craft across the Pamlico Sound as well as while
there could be occasional wind gusts to 35 kts expect this to be
a bit more infrequent. Elevated winds and seas persist through
Wed out ahead of the approaching front. Showers and tstorm
chances become confined to the GStream waters overnight tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): For the outer waters,
elevated winds and seas will continue into Thurs. This is in
association with the aforementioned front that is forecast to
cross regional waters Thurs, keeping elevated winds and seas in
place and increased tstorm chances. Front moves through by
Thurs afternoon and evening with winds shifting to a NE`rly
direction and easing to a 10-15 kts with seas falling to 2-5 ft
thus ending the SCA threat by Thurs night. More benign boating
conditions outside of a scattered shower and thunderstorm threat
is forecast from Fri through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ180.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF