048
FXUS62 KMHX 200242
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will bring chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area into this evening. Any
storm will be capable of producing heavy rain and isolated
flooding. Hurricane Erin is forecast to pass offshore Wednesday
night into Thursday with significant coastal impacts expected,
especially along the Outer Banks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2240 Tuesday...

Radar has zeroed out with loss of heating and a mostly dry
overnight is forecast save for some light offshore showers
possibly skirting coastal areas. We will see a return of low
stratus and patchy fog across the area an hr or two after
midnight. Densest fog located inland where winds have already
calmed. Lows will drop to the low- to mid-70s area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tue...

Key Messages:

-Conditions will quickly deteriorate Wednesday afternoon and
 evening out ahead of the approach of Hurricane Erin.

Any leftover low stratus and patchy fog should quickly burn off
by midmorning on Wed. Conditions then quickly deteriorate
especially along the coast Wed afternoon. Precip chances will
be on the increase as we go through the day on Wednesday as
Hurricane Erin begins to approach from the south and east. A
weak PRE may develop along the coast late morning into the early
afternoon, as GFS/CMC_reg and to a lesser extent NAM12
advertise, as initial band of mid level lift interact with weak
frontal boundary over the FA. This feature does continue to
remain poorly modeled as some of the high res guidance keeps
most if not all of the activity offshore. As a result, kept Chc
PoP`s in place but felt like the best chance to see likely
PoP`s would be overnight Wed. Rain amounts generally in the
0.25-0.5" range, which may go up or down depending on evolution
of features, but attm LPPM off HREF no higher than around 0.75",
so light to mod showers more likely. Breezy nerly winds develop
as gradient inc between approaching Erin and high pres anchored
to the north. Wind gusts in the 15-25 mph range interior to
20-30 mph coastal areas by late day. Temps get up into the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tue...

Key Messages:

 - Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Duck to Beaufort Inlet

 - Storm Surge Warning in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout

 - Hurricane Erin, which is still forecast to remain offshore,
   will make its closest pass Wednesday night into Thursday,
   with significant coastal impacts expected.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...The center of Hurricane Erin
is forecast to remain offshore but make its closest pass to our
coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is when
highest impacts will be felt across the coast, with tropical
storm force winds and coastal impacts (see TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING section for details). Tropical storm force gusts look
possible across some adjacent counties to the warning area, but
still forecast to be under sustained trop storm force. If the
track were to shift slightly more westward, there is potential
for some of the mainland zones west of the OBX to see some
tropical storm force sustained winds. Outer rain bands will
afflict mainly east of Hwy 17 (50-70%) while interior zones
escape the widespread rain showers (20-50%).

Friday through Sunday...Lingering coastal impacts still
possible into Fri as large back swell from slowly departing
Erin keeps high waves above 10 ft on the OBX. Sensible weather
impacts improve as high builds in. The high may break down some
by the weekend, esp the second half of the weekend as next
trough/front inc shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 1920 Tuesday...Mostly VFR flight cats at the moment with
SCT deck at FL025. Have prevailing VFR with SCT MVFR deck for
this evening though inland sites could see brief periods of MVFR
as showers push overhead from E to W, however wanted to save the
TEMPO group for early morning subIFR potential. Another round
of patchy fog and low stratus overspread ENC once again from NW
to SE. General expectation is for IFR CIGs across all TAF sites
with inland sites showing best chance of IFR VIS as well. Mid
morning expecting any low cloud cover and patchy fog to
dissipate with VFR flight cats returning by early afternoon.
Expecting NEerly winds around 10G15kt in the afternoon.


LONG TERM /Wed afternoon through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Winds inc a bit on Wed with gusts in the
15-20kt range. An uptick in winds Wed night into Thu as
Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach to ENC, with gusts of
20-30kt possible, though any tropical storm winds will remain
relegated to the coastal counties. More organized outer rain
bands should remain generally east of the TAF sites Wed night
into Thur, and rain chances are generally 40% or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 2020 Tuesday...

Trop Storm Warnings have expanded to include the Albemarle Sound
and Alligator River. All waters now under trop storm warnings
save for the Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers, where SCAs
remain.

Fun factoid, buoy 41047 (350nm ENE of Nassau) currently
reporting 37ft at 14sec.

Conditions continue to deteriorate tonight into Wed with marine
conditions becoming increasingly treacherous through the night
as Hurricane Erin continues to move northwest. Northeasterly
winds will increase from 10-15 kt this evening to 15-20 kt by
early Wed morning. Winds will continue to increase from south to
north and become more N`rly by Wed evening with wind N-NE`rly
winds at 15-25 kt expected inland and 20-30 kts along the Coast
and Pamlico Sound with gusts up near 35-40 kts by sunset Wed. In
addition to this, seas will quickly build tonight and tomorrow
Of greater concern during the short term is Hurricane Erin`s
increasingly powerful long period swell. Waves will increase
from 5-9 ft at 14-16 seconds this evening to 10-15 ft at 14-16
seconds by Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas will become
increasingly life threatening thereafter.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 250 PM Tue...Extremely treacherous conditions Wed night
through Thu as Hurricane Erin makes her closest approach to ENC
with a very large wind field. This will bring extremely life
threatening marine conditions reaching their worst during this
time, with seas peaking 15-25 ft, and N to Nerly winds peaking
in the 30-40 kt range, gusting to 35-50 kt. Wave heights and
especially winds may still change and will be dependent on
Erin`s eventual track and intensity, which have yet to be fully
determined.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 PM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Storm Surge Warnings, Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood
  Advisories and High Surf Advisories are in effect through as
  late as Friday night. Already beginning to see overwash on
  NC-12 on Hatteras Island. Worst conditions are expected late
  Wednesday through Thursday as Hurricane Erin makes it`s
  closest approach to ENC.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected all week and likely
  into the weekend.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but large and
powerful Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats.
Significant coastal flooding/ocean overwash/erosion is likely,
especially around the high tide cycles. Minor impacts are
expected to start as early as Tuesday afternoon`s high tide
cycle, peak Wednesday into Thursday, and only slowly improve
on Friday. While all area beaches are expected to see impacts,
E to SE facing beaches are most likely to see the highest waves
(10+ ft) and roughest surf zone conditions. Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands are especially vulnerable to even higher waves
(15-20+ ft) and may experience major coastal impacts, including
portions of Highway 12 and secondary roads which may become
impassable and/or inaccessible in places through at least late
week.

Based on the current forecast track, moderate to major flooding
will mainly be focused along the oceanside. However, due to the
expected large wind field with Erin and the increase in north to
northeast winds on Pamlico Sound, minor soundside flooding on
lower Pamlico Sound and it`s adjacent tributaries are also
possible due to winds exceeding tropical storm strength. The
flooding may continue into Friday as well, and may need to be
extended in later updates.

Minor flooding is also possible on the soundside for Hatteras
and Ocracoke islands on Thursday and possibly through Friday as
well due to the strong northerly winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ047-196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ136-137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...TL/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX