692
FXUS62 KMHX 241813
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
213 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore by this evening. A weak cold
front moves south through the area tonight, stalls, then lifts
back north as a warm front on Sunday. This front then meanders
around the area through next week, with areas of low pressure
riding along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Benign weather expected through tonight

High pressure will slide offshore by this evening, allowing a
light return flow to briefly develop in tandem with the
development of the daily seabreeze. After midnight tonight, a
weak cold front is forecast to move through with little fanfare
due to a lack of appreciable moisture or instability. The front
will briefly allow winds to become northerly once again, though,
especially across the northern half of ENC. Despite the
northerly winds, lows tonight should be warmer than last night
thanks to a more mixed boundary layer and slightly warmer low-
level thicknesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Increasing clouds with a chance of showers by the afternoon

An upper level shortwave, embedded within zonal flow aloft, is
forecast to reach the Carolinas on Sunday. Developing southerly
flow ahead of this feature will lead to increased moisture
advection and modest WAA. At the surface, last night`s cold
front will stall near, or just south, of ENC Sunday morning,
then slowly lift back north as a warm front during the day.
Modest WAA in the vicinity of the warm front should support an
increased chance of showers, especially during the afternoon
hours. Near and south of where the warm front reaches, guidance
suggests enough instability will develop to support a few
thunderstorms as well. Right now, it appears the greatest
thunderstorm risk will be near and south of the HWY 70 corridor.
Despite the potential for the instability axis to creep north
into far southwestern sections of ENC, it appears it will be on
the weaker side, and the risk of severe weather appears LOW (<5%
chance) through late Sunday afternoon.

Guidance differs on how quickly clouds and showers will move in
on Sunday, which leads to a wider potential for high
temperatures. If clouds and showers arrive later, highs should
manage to reach the 80s for most areas. On the flip side, if
showers and clouds move in sooner, highs may only top out in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...

Key Messages:
- An unsettled pattern returns for much of the long term as a
  weak boundary sets up across the Southeastern U.S. coast.

Sunday Night: Compact shortwave on the trailing edge of the
upper trough swings through the mid-Atlantic Sunday into Sunday
night as a boundary sets up across the Southeast. Guidance
continues to depict chances for precipitation Sunday night, with
multiple potential contributing factors. More widespread precip
is expected along and north of the surface boundary amidst a
WAA regime. Guidance also hints at the potential for an MCV to
progress eastward from the Plains throughout the day on Sunday,
which may prompt a weak wave to traverse eastward along the
surface boundary, contributing to precip potential. Regarding
timing, precip chances increase Sunday evening before peaking
during the overnight hours Sunday night. Lows Sunday night are
forecast in the low 60s.

Monday - Friday: Precip looks to depart offshore Monday morning as
weak ridging builds in over the region. Conditions have trended
drier for Monday afternoon - Tuesday morning, but still carrying non-
zero chances of precip. Surface boundary is then forecast to remain
stalled across the Southeastern US through the end of the work week,
which looks to bring additional periods of rainfall to ENC. Highs
are forecast to be slightly cooler than average through the middle
part of the weak, with temperatures expected to top out in the mid-
70s to near 80 through Wednesday. Highs then warm up to near average
with forecast max temps in the mid-80s Thursday through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sunday/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs

 - SHRA may return by Sunday afternoon

Light west to southwest flow this afternoon will become
northerly tonight, and remain light, as a weak cold front moves
through. The one exception is along the OBX where the northerly
winds are expected to be a bit higher (10-15kt). For KOAJ and
KEWN, the afternoon seabreeze may provide a brief bump up in
winds this afternoon, but a significant change in wind is not
expected.

On Sunday, the flow will begin to switch back around to
southerly as tonight`s cold front lifts back north as a warm
front. Along and ahead of this boundary, increasing clouds are
expected, with a chance of SHRA possible by the afternoon. The
TSRA risk appears low through 18z Sunday (<10% chance).

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat....The next best chance for sub-VFR conditions
across Eastern NC will be Sunday night into early Monday as a
low pressure area rides along a stalled boundary across the
Carolinas bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to ENC.
High pressure briefly builds in Monday into Monday night with
pred VFR expected. Several waves of low pressure riding along
the boundary to the south bring a return of unsettled weather
that then lingers through the end of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Good boating conditions expected through at least Sunday
   morning

 - A modest thunderstorm risk potentially returns by Sunday
   afternoon

Westerly flow of 5-15kt this afternoon will become northerly
tonight as a weak cold front moves south through the ENC waters.
Winds will then vary quite a bit on Sunday as the cold front
stalls over, or just south, of the ENC waters. Adding to the
complexity of the wind on Sunday is that guidance differs on
where the front will stall and when it will lift back north. In
general, northerly winds in the morning should trend towards a
southerly direction by the afternoon. The timing of this switch
is less certain. Through Sunday morning, the risk of
thunderstorms is expected to be low. The risk of thunderstorms
may modestly increase Sunday afternoon, especially for the
waters south of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Surface boundary stalls across the Carolinas
 into next week. Winds will largely depend on where this
boundary sets up with more northerly winds north of the boundary
and more southerly winds south of the boundary. Weak areas of
low pressure may cross the waters from west to east as they
travel along the aforementioned boundary. Winds have trended
upward Monday into Tuesday with a northerly surge behind the
front, with gusts possibly reaching SCA thresholds. Thus, next
round of SCA`s may be needed beginning sometime Monday. 2-3 ft
waves Sunday will build to 4-6 ft Monday night into Tuesday. 3-5
ft seas then linger into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RM/ZC
MARINE...RM/ZC