124
FXUS62 KMHX 101829
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
229 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated PoP forecast given latest model and radar trends. Issued
Heat Advisory for Tuesday for portions of ENC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with
daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. An extended
period of hot temperatures are also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered thunderstorm coverage is observed over
eastern NC in a very unstable, very moist environment. A weak
shortwave sitting over the region and deep shear of 20-30 knots
is providing enough forcing and maintenance out along and ahead
of the sea breeze for a risk of deep cores in thunderstorms.
This brings a risk of locally heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest of storms. Threat
of storms quickly wanes with a loss of daytime heating late this
evening.

Heat will be the name of the game over the next few days as the
Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S`wards towards
the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains over the
Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to W over
the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low
level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the
offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs
in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to
low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before
a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late
week into the weekend.

Heat indices are peaking around 100-105 this afternoon, but are
expected to climb to around 105-110 Tue through Thurs, and
potentially lingering into Fri with heat headlines probably for
much of the area. In fact, have issued a Heat Advisory for
southern portions of the CWA with the afternoon update. Areas
north could get there, but uncertainty is higher as MCS
currently moving through the Ohio Valley may bring more cloud
cover and lower Tds with any remnant outflows that move into the
region. Lows will be in the 70s which won`t provide much relief
from the heat in the coming days. We encourage anyone planning
on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper
precautions and stay hydrated.

Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place
through much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of
shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo
precip chances for the next several days with best chances
through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but
will also depend on timing and exact location of individual
shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the
next couple of days with limited shear, though somewhat better
shear develops toward the middle of the week. We do look to have
increased precipitation chances closer to Fri and into next
weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the day. Scattered
thunderstorm coverage ongoing and expected to continue through
the afternoon and early evening hours along and south of hwy 70,
in addition to NOBX. This brings a risk of heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds in the strongest of storms.
Thunderstorm coverage and intensity quickly wanes with a loss of
daytime heating tonight.

Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds
expected to remain elevated enough. However, in a worst case
scenario spots that see enhanced rainfall totals today could be
at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non-
impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture to play
with.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds
into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end
chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated
to scattered convection will be possible each day that could
bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as
temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the
thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not
anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short
and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain
around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the
Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ090-092-
     094-194>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ